raghavmaggo

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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34.72		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
146.773	94.1%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary
94.998	65.9%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
91.229	96.4%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
89.018	86.5%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
83.552	91.1%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
81.334	90.7%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
73.847	86.3%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
69.220	93.3%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
67.141	91.5%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
66.997	100.0%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
61.271	85.4%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
61.066	82.6%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
59.996	90.8%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
58.896	60.1%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
57.248	89.4%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
55.840	71.4%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
53.253	57.6%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
41.137	72.9%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
37.397	81.6%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
33.287	78.1%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
31.921	72.9%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
31.056	81.9%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
29.742	86.4%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
29.717	44.7%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
29.546	93.7%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
28.195	58.6%	Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
26.495	22.7%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
24.571	86.3%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
24.358	92.9%	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
24.300	85.4%	How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session?	Continuous
23.694	79.6%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
23.309	91.3%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
23.087	89.8%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
21.673	72.0%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
20.186	85.9%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
19.858	19.2%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
19.798	100.0%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
19.201	57.4%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
18.148	71.1%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
17.897	44.7%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 16 - Jun 27)	Binary
17.536	19.4%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
16.273	89.6%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
16.121	86.2%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
14.932	26.9%	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
14.897	55.1%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
14.851	17.2%	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill decrease total Medicaid spending from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
13.948	82.1%	What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on its public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?	Continuous
13.392	60.2%	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
13.082	55.1%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
11.877	44.4%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
11.269	20.0%	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
11.133	83.0%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
10.970	47.5%	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
10.734	20.0%	What will happen to the adders to tax credits established by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, before 2026?	Multiple Choice
9.581	66.4%	Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025?	Binary
8.981	8.2%	How many Cabinet-level Trump nominations will be confirmed by the US Senate before February 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
8.605	17.2%	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill increase the deficit from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
8.254	20.0%	In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Production Tax Credits (45Y)?	Binary
8.073	82.8%	What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025?	Multiple Choice
8.011	21.4%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
7.815	19.5%	Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?	Binary
7.256	19.0%	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
7.150	10.5%	When in 2025 will President Donald Trump sign into a law a reconciliation bill?	Multiple Choice
6.954	32.6%	Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?	Binary
6.502	44.4%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
6.207	91.8%	Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?	Binary
6.067	55.1%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
5.991	19.5%	Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?	Binary
5.974	44.4%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
5.563	20.1%	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
5.408	20.0%	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Capped credits)	Binary
5.113	29.1%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
5.005	49.0%	Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?	Binary
4.944	9.7%	What will happen next with respect to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act's $7,500 tax credit for US individuals who purchase an EV (30D)?	Multiple Choice
4.875	16.4%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
4.551	47.4%	Will a participant reach the $750 comment prize cap in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Binary
4.479	20.1%	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
4.181	29.1%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
4.163	29.1%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, June 2025)	Binary
4.096	4.5%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
4.079	20.0%	In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Investment Tax Credits (48Ε)?	Binary
4.046	11.9%	Will legislation enacted before January 1, 2026 eliminate the transferability of any of these clean energy tax credits (§48E ITC, §45Y PTC, §45X AMPC)?	Binary
3.988	69.1%	Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?	Binary
3.973	19.5%	Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?	Binary
3.870	20.0%	Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?	Binary
3.453	20.4%	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
3.417	44.4%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13)	Binary
3.139	29.1%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, June 2025)	Binary
2.706	19.5%	Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?	Binary
2.604	18.2%	Will the 2017 TCJA Individual Tax Cuts Be Extended Using a "Current Policy" Baseline in Senate Reconciliation?	Binary
2.362	15.7%	Will the National Archivist certify and publish the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution by June 30, 2025?	Binary
2.332	4.3%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
2.325	15.7%	Will Elizabeth MacDonough, the current Senate parliamentarian, be removed or resign by June 30, 2025?	Binary
2.252	19.5%	Will the United States and Denmark announce formal negotiations over the possible transfer of sovereignty of Greenland to the United States before 2026?	Binary
1.768	10.0%	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (FEOC exclusion)	Binary
1.703	44.4%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
1.504	20.0%	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Limits on share buybacks)	Binary
1.392	3.9%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
0.996	3.7%	Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?	Binary
0.189	9.8%	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45V (hydrogen) tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
-0.839	5.7%	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that partially or fully exempts at least one executive branch department, the CIA, or EPA from the Freedom of Information Act?	Binary
-2.484	67.8%	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
-2.486	3.4%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
-3.249	9.8%	In 2025, will IRA's Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (45Χ) start requiring the use of domestic materials or subcomponents?	Binary
-4.629	16.3%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
-7.031	44.7%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
-9.082	18.1%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
-9.160	84.4%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
-26.153	69.9%	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
-37.873	93.6%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
-55.128	44.7%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20)	Continuous
-94.991	44.7%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 27)	Continuous