• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
💎
Metaculus Cup
🇮🇷🇮🇱
Iran-Israel Conflict
⚡
Current events
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
💵
Fiscal Showdown
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🏦
Big Beautiful Bill
🗽
State of the Union
⏳
AI 2027
🇹🇼🇨🇳
The Taiwan Tinderbox
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Contact
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

00

Before 30 November 2019, will an Ebola health worker be injured or killed in an attack against an Ebola facility inside the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, or Tanzania?

resultNo

How many nations will there be in the United Nations by 2050?

197
nations

Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?

result-28

How many UN member states will there be in 2070?

198
states

How many FAO domestic food price warnings in spring 2023?

result16

Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024?

South Sudanresult: No
India, Israel or Pakistanresult: No

Will three of the listed countries ratify an agreement to form the East African Federation before 2030?

7%chance

Will an East African Federation exist and govern before 2040?

14%chance

Forecasting Civil Wars in the Modern World

2
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives