• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
🗳️
US Democracy Index
❓
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
🗞️
In the News
🦾
AI Forecasting Benchmark
📈
Indexes
💎
Metaculus Cup
🌍
AI Pathways
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
15 comments
196 forecasters

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

2%chance
163 comments
349 forecasters

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

Current estimate
22 Mar 2027

Key Factors

90 comments
188 forecasters

Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

Ivanivske99%
Velyka Novosilka99%
Kostyantynivka85%
21 comments
74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%
Saudi Arabia2%
Japan1%
9 comments
112 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%
Saudi Arabia15%
South Korea10%
62 comments
388 forecasters

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

0.7%chance
8 comments
55 forecasters

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

4%chance
44 comments
298 forecasters

Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

25%chance
22 comments
122 forecasters

Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

16%chance
18 comments
149 forecasters

Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2040?

3%chance