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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
164 comments
351 forecasters

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

Current estimate
05 Apr 2027

Key Factors

16 comments
197 forecasters

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

2%chance
22 comments
122 forecasters

Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

11%chance
5% this week
9 comments
112 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%
Saudi Arabia15%
South Korea10%
21 comments
74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea2.5%
Saudi Arabia1.5%
Saudi ArabiaAnnulled
62 comments
390 forecasters

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

0.3%chance
90 comments
188 forecasters

Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

Ivanivske99%
Velyka Novosilka99%
Kostyantynivka85%
44 comments
298 forecasters

Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

25%chance
32 comments
47 forecasters

What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates?

14 comments
105 forecasters

Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?

99.5%chance