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US Democracy Index

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Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

2%chance

9 comments

111 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

21 comments

74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2%

Poland1%

90 comments

187 forecasters

Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

Ivanivske99%

Velyka Novosilka99%

Kostyantynivka85%

162 comments

348 forecasters

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

Current estimate

15 Mar 2027

Key Factors

22 comments

121 forecasters

Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

20%chance

5% this week

3 comments

151 forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%chance

62 comments

386 forecasters

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

0.7%chance

7 comments

33 forecasters

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Lithuania30%

Poland30%

United States30%

23 comments

87 forecasters

When will martial law be lifted in at least 3/4 of Ukraine?

Current estimate

28 Nov 2026