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US Democracy Index

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When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

Current estimate

07 Mar 2027

15 comments

196 forecasters

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

2%chance

8 comments

48 forecasters

What will be Russia's fertility rate (in births per woman) in 2027?

Current estimate

1.33 births/woman

44 comments

298 forecasters

Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

22%chance

21 comments

73 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2%

Saudi ArabiaAnnulled

9 comments

111 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran57%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

90 comments

187 forecasters

Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

Ivanivske99%

Velyka Novosilka99%

Kostyantynivka85%

62 comments

425 forecasters

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

1%chance

7 comments

33 forecasters

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

United States30%

Poland30%

Lithuania29%

32 comments

47 forecasters

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

What will be Russia's fertility rate (in births per woman) in 2027?

Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates?

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

What will be Russia's fertility rate (in births per woman) in 2027?

Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates?