Question Feed | Metaculus

11 comments

47 forecasters

2030 FIFA World Cup Host

Spain-Portugal-Moroccoresult: Yes

Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguayresult: No

Greece-Saudi Arabiaresult: No

Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Moroccoresult: No

Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabiaresult: No

126 comments

224 forecasters

Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2025?

resultNo

17 comments

224 forecasters

Ukraine takes control of Donetsk and Luhansk?

4%chance

171 comments

391 forecasters

End of Ukraine conflict

Current estimate

16 Oct 2027

Key Factors

- Russian economic stability
Political stability
Resource deployment

161 comments

455 forecasters

Bilateral Ceasefire in Ukraine before 2024?

resultNo

9 comments

126 forecasters

Who gets nukes by 2035?

Iran21%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

Poland5%

6 others

25 comments

87 forecasters

Russian Troops in Central Bakhmut by 1-20-'23

Ambiguous

20 comments

33 forecasters

Which UA Cities Contested If Nuke Escalation

SevastopolAnnulled

Luhansk cityAnnulled

DzhankoiAnnulled

Donetsk cityAnnulled

7 others

21 comments

76 forecasters

Will these countries get nukes by 2030?

South Korea2%

Saudi ArabiaAnnulled

Saudi Arabia1%

Japan1%

5 others

94 comments

189 forecasters

Russian control of cities January 1, 2027

Ivanivske99%

Velyka Novosilka99%

Kostyantynivka80%

Druzhkivka34%

12 others

26 comments

106 forecasters

Russia damages Patriot air defense system?

resultNo

113 comments

151 forecasters

Israel Arms Ukraine before 2024

resultYes

303 comments

1.1k forecasters

Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024

resultNo

11 comments

97 forecasters

Nuclear Detonation in Kyiv before 2024

Annulled

64 comments

358 forecasters

1000+ RU soldiers killed by UA in 2022+23

resultYes

14 comments

320 forecasters

Russian Control of Dnipro on June 1, 2023

resultNo

1k comments

862 forecasters

Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?

resultNo

63 comments

397 forecasters

Russia Expanded Territory in Ukraine in 2026?

resultNo

9 comments

22 forecasters

Russo-Ukrainian War Deaths in 2022 ≥150K

Ambiguous

34 comments

50 forecasters

Real Price of Gas in US Over Time

290 comments

735 forecasters

Nuclear Detonation in Ukraine by 2023

resultNo

44 comments

306 forecasters

Russian Leader Disapproves of Invasion

15%chance

35 comments

175 forecasters

F-16 Fighter Jets to Ukraine by 2024

resultYes

20 comments

64 forecasters

Yemen Ramadan Ceasefire 2022

resultYes