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35
comments
175
forecasters
Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?
result
Yes
155
comments
341
forecasters
When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?
Current estimate
01 Nov 2026
25
comments
236
forecasters
Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?
result
Yes
40
comments
26
forecasters
Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?
Poland
Ambiguous
Latvia
Ambiguous
Lithuania
Ambiguous
9 others
21
comments
48
forecasters
Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?
result
Yes
8
comments
77
forecasters
Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?
5%
chance
7%
this week
7
comments
33
forecasters
Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?
United States
32%
Estonia
30%
Poland
30%
9 others
15
comments
195
forecasters
Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?
2%
chance
126
comments
224
forecasters
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?
result
No
2
comments
125
forecasters
Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018?
result
No
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