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15
comments
196
forecasters
Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?
2%
chance
163
comments
349
forecasters
When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?
Current estimate
22 Mar 2027
Key Factors
Regime change
- Russian economic stability
- Zelensky's approval
90
comments
188
forecasters
Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?
Ivanivske
99%
Velyka Novosilka
99%
Kostyantynivka
85%
13 others
21
comments
74
forecasters
Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?
South Korea
3%
Saudi Arabia
2%
Japan
1%
6 others
9
comments
112
forecasters
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
50%
Saudi Arabia
15%
South Korea
10%
7 others
62
comments
388
forecasters
Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?
0.7%
chance
8
comments
55
forecasters
Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?
4%
chance
44
comments
298
forecasters
Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
25%
chance
22
comments
122
forecasters
Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?
16%
chance
18
comments
149
forecasters
Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2040?
3%
chance
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