Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

✨🔝

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

38%chance

15% this week

Key Factor

Enrichment may be primarily for bargaining incentive

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

16 Feb 2027

Key Factor

AI become student of arts university in Vienna

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Aug 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Will there be a "World War Three" before 2050?

23%chance

Key Factor

All five geographical regions defined by SIPRI saw rises in military spending for the first time since 2009, with Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Oceania recording particularly large increases.

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

0.2%chance

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

resultNo

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Gretchen Whitmerresult: No

Pete Buttigiegresult: No

and 17 others

What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

22%chance

Will there be a US-China war before 2035?

15%chance