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5
comments
154
forecasters
Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?
97%
chance
627
comments
1.8k
forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Jul 2033
27
comments
406
forecasters
Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?
10%
chance
239
comments
776
forecasters
Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?
3%
chance
184
comments
618
forecasters
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?
29%
chance
45
comments
378
forecasters
When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?
Current estimate
Aug 2043
21
comments
300
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%
chance
251
comments
1.6k
forecasters
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
28%
chance
44
comments
432
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
27%
chance
65
comments
1.4k
forecasters
Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?
10%
chance
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