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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
251 comments
1.5k forecasters

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

28%chance
234 comments
749 forecasters

Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?

3%chance
559 comments
1.7k forecasters

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
29 May 2027
188 comments
2.7k forecasters

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

96%chance
89 comments
1.6k forecasters

Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?

22%chance
622 comments
1.8k forecasters

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
Oct 2033
122 comments
580 forecasters

How much global warming by 2100?

Current estimate
3.16 °C
169 comments
243 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

Futurama30%
AI-Dystopia23.7%
Singularia18.9%
80 comments
621 forecasters

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

35%chance
5% this week
374 comments
858 forecasters

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?