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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
5 comments
154 forecasters

Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?

97%chance
627 comments
1.8k forecasters

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
Jul 2033
27 comments
406 forecasters

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

10%chance
239 comments
776 forecasters

Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?

3%chance
184 comments
618 forecasters

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

29%chance
45 comments
378 forecasters

When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?

Current estimate
Aug 2043
21 comments
300 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30%chance
251 comments
1.6k forecasters

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

28%chance
44 comments
432 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%chance
65 comments
1.4k forecasters

Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?

10%chance