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34
comments
134
forecasters
Will China land the next person on the Moon?
51%
chance
9%
this week
Key Factors
US lunar program setbacks increase China's chances
China making strides in lunar landing efforts
US Starship program too ambitious for timeline
631
comments
1.8k
forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Jul 2033
Key Factors
↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals
AI companies dont get funding (due to AI bubble bursting)
Someone solves the alignment problem (I'd hope timelines are longer without this & shorter with it)
567
comments
1.7k
forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
20 Nov 2027
Key Factors
China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI
↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals
↑ multi-year compute/colo contracts confirmed via filings
66
comments
1.4k
forecasters
Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?
10%
chance
Key Factors
Donald Trump has stated that abortion policy should be set by the states, and his vice-presidential nominee, JD Vance, has expressed opposition to a national abortion ban.
The Heritage Foundation, along with more than 100 anti-abortion and other extremist organizations, has issued Project 2025, a plan that includes using federal government aspects to destroy access to abortion.
In 2024, 166 House Republicans, roughly three-quarters of the conference, signed on to legislation for a nationwide abortion ban, indicating strong support within the party.
82
comments
626
forecasters
Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?
40%
chance
378
comments
886
forecasters
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
41
comments
1.5k
forecasters
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?
60%
chance
254
comments
1.6k
forecasters
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
25%
chance
Key Factors
Alzheimer's hampers developments in radical life extension
Life expectancy for the longest-lived populations has been growing more or less linearly since the 1840s.
Genetics restricts lifespan for large population subset
125
comments
585
forecasters
How much global warming by 2100?
Current estimate
3.14 °C
6
comments
130
forecasters
What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years?
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