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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

4.2 years this week

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

AI become student of arts university in Vienna

Key Factor

AI become student of arts university in Vienna

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

Key Factor

Possibility of AI smarter than humans, with goal of wiping out humans

Key Factor

Possibility of AI smarter than humans, with goal of wiping out humans

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

Political will to maintain the threat of strikes

Key Factor

Political will to maintain the threat of strikes