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US Democracy Index

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When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate

20 Nov 2027

Key Factors

254 comments

1.6k forecasters

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

25%chance

Key Factors

125 comments

583 forecasters

How much global warming by 2100?

Current estimate

3.18 °C

270 comments

2.9k forecasters

Will there be a "World War Three" before 2050?

22%chance

Key Factors

22 comments

40 forecasters

What will be the outcome of the New York Times' copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

The case is settled49.6%

OpenAI & Microsoft Win25.3%

NYT Wins ≥$50 Million14.9%

41 comments

1.5k forecasters

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

60%chance

21 comments

305 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30%chance

44 comments

434 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28%chance

374 comments

1.7k forecasters

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

1%chance

Key Factors

35 comments

575 forecasters

Will there be a US-China war before 2035?

15%chance