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251
comments
1.5k
forecasters
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
28%
chance
234
comments
749
forecasters
Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?
3%
chance
559
comments
1.7k
forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
29 May 2027
188
comments
2.7k
forecasters
Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?
96%
chance
89
comments
1.6k
forecasters
Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?
22%
chance
622
comments
1.8k
forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Oct 2033
122
comments
580
forecasters
How much global warming by 2100?
Current estimate
3.16 °C
169
comments
243
forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama
30%
AI-Dystopia
23.7%
Singularia
18.9%
2 others
27%
80
comments
621
forecasters
Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?
35%
chance
5%
this week
374
comments
858
forecasters
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
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