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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Jan 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

18 Apr 2027

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

28
months

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

20
months

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

3.52
years

Five years after AGI, what will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease?

70.3
deaths per 100k
condition

Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?

Resolved:Yes
6 forecasters
if yes
if no

Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known

19 Apr 2026

Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known

23 Nov 2025
Resolved:Annulled
4
no comments0
condition

3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026?

13 forecasters
if yes
if no

Date of Artificial General Intelligence

25 Oct 2029

Date of Artificial General Intelligence

01 Sep 2028
7
no comments0

As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?

resultJun 2030