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When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

03 Sep 2027 (23 Sep 2026 - 01 Nov 2029)

224

682 682 comments

1.8k

1.8k forecasters

03 Sep 2027

(23 Sep 2026 - 01 Nov 2029)

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

89% chance

27

154

154 forecasters

89%chance

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

08 Nov 2030 (26 Mar 2028 - Oct 2036)

221

670 670 comments

1.9k

1.9k forecasters

08 Nov 2030

(26 Mar 2028 - Oct 2036)

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

44% chance

39

479

479 forecasters

44%chance

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

71% chance

6

76

76 forecasters

71%chance

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

40% chance

6

86

86 forecasters

40%chance

By 2050, will at least 25% of Year-End Billboard Hot 100 songs be primarily composed by AI?

70% chance

16

103

103 forecasters

70%chance

Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?

1

120

120 forecasters

Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?

95% chance

39

256

256 forecasters

95%chance

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

85% chance

1

135

135 forecasters

85%chance

When will an AI solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem with its proof published in a peer-reviewed journal?

<01 Jan 2030 (<01 Jan 2030 - <01 Jan 2030)

3

32

32 forecasters

<01 Jan 2030

(<01 Jan 2030 - <01 Jan 2030)

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

result: yes

25

145

145 forecasters

ResolvedYes

When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?

23 Oct 2027 (29 Jul 2026 - 09 Jun 2030)

96

648

648 forecasters

23 Oct 2027

(29 Jul 2026 - 09 Jun 2030)

Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?

57% chance

1

29

29 forecasters

57%chance

Will at least one paper published in Nature, Science, or Cell list an AI system as a formally credited author before January 1, 2030?

80% chance

18

18 forecasters

80%chance

CTs Deep Learning Revenue → CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

2

22

22 forecasters

Will an AI shopping agent service achieve significant commercial deployment by December 31, 2026?

96% chance

1

21

21 forecasters

96%chance

By December 31st, 2028, will it be considered best practice in clinical psychology to incorporate AI tools in the diagnostic process?

20% chance

2

54

54 forecasters

20%chance

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?

98% chance

3

6

6 forecasters

Annulled

If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

25% chance

26

344

344 forecasters

25%chance

When will a sitting US President make a declaration about AI that meets the following criterion?

11

18

18 forecasters

Will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals before 2100?

3% chance

2

87

87 forecasters

3%chance