Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?99% chance231414 comments144144 forecasters99%chance
What will be the highest score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on August 31, 2026?106106 comments109109 forecasters
When will the first major tech company offer a university course taught primarily by AI?>01 Jan 2031 (07 Jan 2029 - >01 Jan 2031)144 comments1414 forecasters>01 Jan 2031 (07 Jan 2029 - >01 Jan 2031)
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?13 Sep 2028 (29 Dec 2026 - Aug 2032)223623623 comments1.8k1.8k forecasters13 Sep 2028 (29 Dec 2026 - Aug 2032)
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?98% chance333 comments66 forecastersAnnulled
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?71% chance644 comments7272 forecasters71%chance
Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?15% chance242626 comments1.5k1.5k forecasters15%chance
Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?36% chance1533 comments8686 forecasters36%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?26% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters26%chance
Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?86% chance77 comments5858 forecasters86%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?25% chance374545 comments468468 forecasters25%chance
When will AI wholly create an original, critically-acclaimed feature film?17 Aug 2030 (07 Apr 2028 - Aug 2035)113838 comments113113 forecasters17 Aug 2030 (07 Apr 2028 - Aug 2035)
When will an AI solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem with its proof published in a peer-reviewed journal?<01 Jan 2030 (<01 Jan 2030 - Jan 2034)32020 comments2525 forecasters<01 Jan 2030 (<01 Jan 2030 - Jan 2034)
In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?result: no477 comments1616 forecastersResolvedNo
Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?95% chance311010 comments146146 forecasters95%chance
Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?85% chance171818 comments149149 forecasters85%chance
When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?142020 comments3838 forecasters
If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?Feb 2039 (20 Apr 2031 - Jan 2057)351919 comments165165 forecastersFeb 2039 (20 Apr 2031 - Jan 2057)
If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?41% chance283939 comments177177 forecasters41%chance
How many of the 10 most important advancements in machine learning or artificial intelligence of 2025-2030 will have been discovered by an AI system?3.84 (1.35 - 7.74)166 comments1919 forecasters3.84 (1.35 - 7.74)
When will most Americans personally know someone who has dated an AI?May 2032 (15 Apr 2029 - Apr 2038)91313 comments101101 forecastersMay 2032 (15 Apr 2029 - Apr 2038)