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When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

10 Oct 2027 (29 Sep 2026 - 24 Jul 2030)

224

653 653 comments

1.8k

1.8k forecasters

10 Oct 2027

(29 Sep 2026 - 24 Jul 2030)

Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?

90

90 forecasters

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Oct 2031 (08 Aug 2028 - Mar 2039)

220

660 660 comments

1.9k

1.9k forecasters

Oct 2031

(08 Aug 2028 - Mar 2039)

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

7

91

91 forecasters

When will an AI solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem with its proof published in a peer-reviewed journal?

<01 Jan 2030 (<01 Jan 2030 - <01 Jan 2030)

3

30

30 forecasters

<01 Jan 2030

(<01 Jan 2030 - <01 Jan 2030)

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

result: yes

25

145

145 forecasters

ResolvedYes

When will concern about artificial intelligence go mainstream in the United States?

04 Sep 2027 (21 Dec 2026 - 24 May 2029)

13

84

84 forecasters

04 Sep 2027

(21 Dec 2026 - 24 May 2029)

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30% chance

25

334

334 forecasters

30%chance

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

85% chance

27

150

150 forecasters

85%chance

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

Oct 2049 (May 2034 - 2100)

18

75

75 forecasters

Oct 2049

(May 2034 - 2100)

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

85% chance

18

151

151 forecasters

85%chance

Will at least one paper published in Nature, Science, or Cell list an AI system as a formally credited author before January 1, 2030?

73% chance

13

13 forecasters

73%chance

Will an anthropomorphic robot with artificial intelligence win in a football (soccer) penalty shootout against a professional human player before January 1, 2035?

55% chance

4

39

39 forecasters

55%chance

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

41% chance

39

101 101 comments

471

471 forecasters

41%chance

How many of the 25 largest global companies will have a C-suite officer that specializes in AI, as of January 1, 2030?

13 companies (8 - 19)

11

11 forecasters

13 companies

(8 - 19)

When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?

28 Feb 2027 (08 Jan 2026 - 18 Apr 2028)

12

70

70 forecasters

28 Feb 2027

(08 Jan 2026 - 18 Apr 2028)

When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?

14

38

38 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

30% chance

38

472

472 forecasters

30%chance

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?

98% chance

3

6

6 forecasters

Annulled

When will AI wholly create an original, critically-acclaimed feature film?

07 Jan 2031 (14 Jul 2028 - Sep 2035)

11

114

114 forecasters

07 Jan 2031

(14 Jul 2028 - Sep 2035)

Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?

11% chance

4

53

53 forecasters

11%chance

In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?

result: no

4

16

16 forecasters

ResolvedNo