What will be the highest score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on August 31, 2026?0 comments109109 forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?25 May 2028 (22 Oct 2026 - Mar 2032)223613613 comments1.7k1.7k forecasters25 May 2028 (22 Oct 2026 - Mar 2032)
Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?80% chance66 comments3030 forecasters80%chance
When will the first company with a market cap above the given figures be openly run by an AI CEO?433 comments2525 forecasters
When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?142020 comments3838 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters30%chance
Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?42% chance1533 comments8787 forecasters42%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?27% chance364545 comments468468 forecasters27%chance
When will AI wholly create an original, critically-acclaimed feature film?06 Apr 2030 (09 Jan 2028 - Dec 2034)113838 comments113113 forecasters06 Apr 2030 (09 Jan 2028 - Dec 2034)
In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?result: no477 comments1616 forecastersResolvedNo
When will a sitting US President make a declaration about AI that meets the following criterion?111515 comments1717 forecasters
If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?Oct 2037 (13 Nov 2030 - May 2053)341919 comments165165 forecastersOct 2037 (13 Nov 2030 - May 2053)
Will an AI created song chart on the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?45.8% chance-122 comments3535 forecasters45.8%chance
Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?8% chance64242 comments7979 forecasters8%chance
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?98% chance333 comments66 forecastersAnnulled
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?98% chance231313 comments142142 forecasters98%chance
How many of the 10 most important advancements in machine learning or artificial intelligence of 2025-2030 will have been discovered by an AI system?3.84 (1.35 - 7.74)166 comments1919 forecasters3.84 (1.35 - 7.74)
When will the New York Times publish an article that it claims or acknowledges is 100% written by AI?233 comments1818 forecasters
When will concern about artificial intelligence go mainstream in the United States?14 Jan 2028 (01 Sep 2026 - 02 Sep 2029)1266 comments8080 forecasters14 Jan 2028 (01 Sep 2026 - 02 Sep 2029)
By December 31st, 2028, will it be considered best practice in clinical psychology to incorporate AI tools in the diagnostic process?50% chance255 comments5252 forecasters50%chance
When will most Americans personally know someone who has dated an AI?Nov 2031 (04 Feb 2029 - Nov 2036)91313 comments100100 forecastersNov 2031 (04 Feb 2029 - Nov 2036)