Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?22.8% chance342727 comments229229 forecasters22.8%chance
Respiratory Outlook July Update: Screwworm continues US spread as Ebola outbreak surges in DRC40 comments
Will a novel human-infectious pandemic originate in these countries before 2100?11 comment33 forecasters
Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?3.3% chance31212 comments2424 forecasters3.3%chance
Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2030?20% chance122 comments1919 forecasters20%chance
Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?0.1% chance52020 comments107107 forecasters0.1%chance
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?result: no58113113 comments589589 forecastersResolvedNo
By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?result: no40109109 comments354354 forecastersResolvedNo
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?77 comments2525 forecasters
Will there be any human cases of the novel coronavirus, HKU5-CoV-2, before July 1, 2025?result: no8787 comments7878 forecastersResolvedNo
When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season?32424 comments2222 forecasters
Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?result: no71212 comments5353 forecastersResolvedNo
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?result: no167070 comments118118 forecastersResolvedNo
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before Sept 30, 2024?result: no125125 comments3434 forecastersResolvedNo
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026? → If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?1010 comments2121 forecasters