• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
🗳️
US Democracy Index
❓
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
🗞️
In the News
🦾
AI Forecasting Benchmark
📈
Indexes
💎
Metaculus Cup
🌍
AI Pathways
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
0 comments
107 forecasters

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

Contributed by the AI Diffusion community.

1 comment
6 forecasters

What percentage of workers will report that they use AI daily as a part of their role in 2029?

Current estimate
81.3%

Key Factors

0 comments
32 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%
Google Cloud12%
Amazon Web Services11%
96 comments
183 forecasters

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Current estimate
Sep 2031

Contributed by the AI Warning Signs community.

2 comments
11 forecasters

Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?

62.8%chance
2 comments
40 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%
Amazon Web Services5%
Microsoft Azure5%
95 comments
95 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 19.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?

resultNo

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
55 comments
AI Pathways Tournament
9 comments
40 forecasters

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

Mark Zuckerbergresult: No
Sundar Pichairesult: No
Sam Altmanresult: No
566 comments
1.7k forecasters

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
20 Nov 2027

Key Factors