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US Democracy Index

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Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

Alphabet37.3%

OpenAI23.3%

Other14.4%

0 comments

95 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 19.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

0 comments

8 forecasters

What percentage of Americans will identify computers/technology advancement as the US's most important problem by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate

0.668%

627 comments

1.8k forecasters

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate

Aug 2033

Contributed by the JetBrains community.

0 comments

5 forecasters

According to the 2024 Developer Ecosystem Survey:

What percentage of time will developers spend on code reviews in 2025?48.4

What will the percentage of developers not using AI in testing be in 2025?24.3

What percentage of developers will feel completely secure in their job in 202511.2

0 comments

31 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%

Google Cloud14.2%

Microsoft Azure14%

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

3 comments

12 forecasters

What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate

75.3%

2 comments

39 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%

Amazon Web Services5%

Microsoft Azure5%

7 comments

129 forecasters

Which year will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic first reach a valuation of at least $1 trillion?

202634.8%

202730.6%

202814.1%

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

0 comments

11 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?

33.3%chance

16.7% this week