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Will at least one paper published in Nature, Science, or Cell list an AI system as a formally credited author before January 1, 2030?

%chance

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: July 2026 Updates

7

AI Military Disempowerment Pro Discussion

Got Opinions on AI & Labor? The Labor Automation Tournament Comment Prize Deadline is September 1.

4

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

8

63

63 forecasters

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?

10% chance

2

18

18 forecasters

10%chance

Winners of the Question Links contest for the Spring Cup

3

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

98% chance

33

177

177 forecasters

98%chance

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?

13

84

84 forecasters

How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?

2

45

45 forecasters

Build Your Own Forecasting Bot in 30 Minutes With Our Tutorial Video

8

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

99% chance

24

145

145 forecasters

99%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30% chance

24

332

332 forecasters

30%chance

Will there be a frontier AI model from the given country before 2035?

10

43

43 forecasters

Will an AI shopping agent service achieve significant commercial deployment by December 31, 2026?

95% chance

1

20

20 forecasters

95%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

30% chance

37

471

471 forecasters

30%chance

Will Russia have an AI data center with >10,000 H100e before 2027?

7% chance

2

17

17 forecasters

7%chance

When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?

04 Sep 2026 (03 Aug 2025 - 11 May 2028)

11

69

69 forecasters

04 Sep 2026

(03 Aug 2025 - 11 May 2028)

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

9% chance

6

81

81 forecasters

9%chance

Closes Mar 31, 2026 Which company will own the #1 ranked AI model on the Arena AI (LMSYS) Text Leaderboard as of April 30, 2026?

10

10 forecasters

Announcing: the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 Winners!

5

FutureEval Bot Tournament Resources Page

4