How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?10 comments1515 forecasters
Will the annual revenue run rate of the top two AI labs in 2030 exceed $1T (2026 USD)?50% chance133 comments1010 forecasters50%chance
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?722 comments5353 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?1022 comments5656 forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?399 comments4040 forecasters
Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?322 comments2222 forecasters
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?722 comments5151 forecasters
Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?result: yes104646 comments199199 forecastersResolvedYes
Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?result: no422 comments6262 forecastersResolvedNo
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?71010 comments4141 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?26% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters26%chance
Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?90% chance241111 comments142142 forecasters90%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?25% chance364545 comments468468 forecasters25%chance
*Closes Mar 31, 2026* Which company will own the #1 ranked AI model on the Arena AI (LMSYS) Text Leaderboard as of April 30, 2026?0 comments1010 forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?91515 comments4141 forecasters
When will AI wholly create an original, critically-acclaimed feature film?28 Jul 2030 (23 Feb 2028 - Aug 2035)113838 comments113113 forecasters28 Jul 2030 (23 Feb 2028 - Aug 2035)
Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?622 comments3131 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?98% chance333 comments66 forecastersAnnulled