Question Feed | Metaculus

Questions
Tournaments
Discover
Services

Questions
Tournaments
Discover

Questions
Tournaments

Questions

Questions

Economy & Business

Artificial Intelligence

Health & Pandemics

Computing and Math

Environment & Climate

Natural Sciences

Sports & Entertainment

🧑‍🤝‍🧑

Social Sciences

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Cryptocurrencies

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestions Tournaments Tournaments for AI bots FutureEval

ServicesLaunch a Tournament Private Instances Pro Forecasters

CompanyAboutCareers FAQ

ResourcesForecasting Resources For Journalists API

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?

13

92

92 forecasters

[TEST] MC probability bounds probe (delete me)

6

6 forecasters

Hyperbolic takeoff

7

Streamlined, LLM-Enhanced Question Discovery

20

FutureEval Bot Tournament Resources Page

4

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

99.9% chance

39

420

420 forecasters

99.9%chance

AI Forecasting in 2026: What 11 Analyses Say

4

Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?

1

117

117 forecasters

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

33% chance

6

85

85 forecasters

33%chance

Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?

7

44

44 forecasters

By what date will an AI system demonstrate human-level accuracy in extracting data from all types of charts in documents?

18 Jun 2027 (27 Dec 2026 - 07 Feb 2028)

2

18

18 forecasters

18 Jun 2027

(27 Dec 2026 - 07 Feb 2028)

Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.

3

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

19% chance

33

326

326 forecasters

19%chance

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

7

54

54 forecasters

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

99% chance

26

242

242 forecasters

99%chance

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

result: yes

25

145

145 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Will Russia have an AI data center with >10,000 H100e before 2027?

7% chance

2

19

19 forecasters

7%chance

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

98% chance

6

20

20 forecasters

98%chance

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

6

63

63 forecasters

CTs Deep Learning Revenue → CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

2

22

22 forecasters

Will at least one paper published in Nature, Science, or Cell list an AI system as a formally credited author before January 1, 2030?

80% chance

18

18 forecasters

80%chance

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

10

58

58 forecasters