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🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

4
0 comments

Contributed by the JetBrains community.

0 comments
3 forecasters

For these benchmarks, what percentage of problems do you estimate the top-performing AI model or agent will be able to solve by December'25?

AI2 Reasoning Challenge97.9
Toloka's µ-MATH94.1
Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A90.8
14 comments
84 forecasters

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind20%
xAI5%
Microsoft5%
26 comments
42 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?

11%chance
22% this week

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

0 comments
12 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?

25%chance
25% this week
3 comments
52 forecasters

How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?

Current estimate
5.53 labs
0 comments
29 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH16%
Microsoft Azure14%
Google Cloud12%
0 comments
29 forecasters

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

40%chance
21% this week
17 comments
96 forecasters

Quantum-enhanced machine learning by 2040?

60%chance
21 comments
1.4k forecasters

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

30%chance