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🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!
4
0
comments
Contributed by the
JetBrains
community.
0
comments
3
forecasters
For these benchmarks, what percentage of problems do you estimate the top-performing AI model or agent will be able to solve by December'25?
AI2 Reasoning Challenge
97.9
Toloka's µ-MATH
94.1
Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A
90.8
2 others
14
comments
84
forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind
20%
xAI
5%
Microsoft
5%
14 others
26
comments
42
forecasters
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?
11%
chance
22%
this week
Contributed by the
AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
community.
0
comments
12
forecasters
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?
25%
chance
25%
this week
3
comments
52
forecasters
How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?
Current estimate
5.53 labs
0
comments
29
forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH
16%
Microsoft Azure
14%
Google Cloud
12%
1 other
0
comments
29
forecasters
Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?
40%
chance
21%
this week
17
comments
96
forecasters
Quantum-enhanced machine learning by 2040?
60%
chance
21
comments
1.4k
forecasters
Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?
30%
chance
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