Will the annual revenue run rate of the top two AI labs in 2030 exceed $1T (2026 USD)?62.5% chance11 comment22 forecasters62.5%chance
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?622 comments5353 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?1022 comments5656 forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?399 comments4040 forecasters
Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?88.3% chance422 comments7070 forecasters88.3%chance
Which year will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic first reach a valuation of at least $1 trillion?41818 comments9494 forecasters
Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?111010 comments5050 forecasters
Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?322 comments2222 forecasters
Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?result: yes104646 comments199199 forecastersResolvedYes
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?71010 comments4141 forecasters
What will be the combined weight (%) of AI companies in the S&P 500 on February 27, 2026?26.3% (25 - 27.7)3232 comments842842 forecasters26.3% (25 - 27.7)
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?722 comments5151 forecasters
How many problems solved by AI will the official FrontierMath Open Problems index show on May 1, 2026?119119 comments118118 forecasters
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?85% chance544 comments5959 forecasters85%chance
When will the first company with a market cap above the given figures be openly run by an AI CEO?433 comments2525 forecasters
Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?70% chance66 comments2626 forecasters70%chance
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?81717 comments6666 forecasters
Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?98% chance31212 comments175175 forecasters98%chance
If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?Apr 2037 (13 Sep 2030 - May 2053)341919 comments165165 forecastersApr 2037 (13 Sep 2030 - May 2053)
What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?1699 comments8181 forecasters