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US Democracy Index

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Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

32 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%

Google Cloud12%

Amazon Web Services11%

Contributed by the AI Warning Signs community.

2 comments

11 forecasters

Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?

62.8%chance

2 comments

40 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%

Amazon Web Services5%

Microsoft Azure5%

3 comments

62 forecasters

Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?

48%chance

24% this week

3 comments

5 forecasters

What will be the sector weighting of the Technology and Communication Services Sector in the S&P 500 on January 1, 2027?

Current estimate

0.449%

Oct 29 Update of Activities for Foresight Grant

0 comments

15 comments

23 forecasters

What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?

Current estimate

61.8%

9 comments

40 forecasters

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

Mark Zuckerbergresult: No

Sundar Pichairesult: No

Sam Altmanresult: No

3 comments

61 forecasters

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

Alphabet34.6%

OpenAI21.2%

Anthropic18.2%