627 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Aug 2033
0 comments
31 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH29%
Google Cloud14.2%
Microsoft Azure14%
7 comments
126 forecasters
Which year will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic first reach a valuation of at least $1 trillion?
202634.6%
202729.5%
202814.2%
2 comments
39 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH25%
Microsoft Azure5%
Amazon Web Services5%
2 comments
13 forecasters
Will Aschenbrenner’s ‘drop-in remote AI workers’ be developed by the end of 2027?
75%chance
15% this week
9 comments
40 forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?
Mark Zuckerbergresult: No
Sundar Pichairesult: No
Sam Altmanresult: No
5 comments
41 forecasters
In which year will AI infrastructure account for 10% or more of global electricity consumption?
Not before 203177.3%
2029 or 203019.6%
2027 or 20283%
