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0 comments
7 forecasters

Will any AI model achieve a score of 94% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before February 1, 2026?

Current estimate
Revealed in 2 days

Contributed by the David Mathers' Community community.

0 comments
4 forecasters

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 3 AI (agents that can reliable execute tasks over several days)

Current estimate
18 Jul 2026
0 comments
34 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH30%
Google Cloud16%
Amazon Web Services15%

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
66 comments
AI Pathways Tournament
2 comments
41 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%
Amazon Web Services5%
Microsoft Azure5%
0 comments
107 forecasters

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

4 comments
3 forecasters

How much will using AI add to (or subtract from) the time it takes developers to do a task, in METR's second impact study?

Current estimate
2.28%

Contributed by the AI Warning Signs community.

4 comments
13 forecasters

Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

70%chance
15% this week

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

0 comments
15 forecasters

What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate
82 score
2 comments
37 forecasters

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

AMD5%
Nvidia5%
Google5%