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AI Military Disempowerment Pro Discussion

Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?

97% chance

39

254

254 forecasters

97%chance

Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?

1

115

115 forecasters

Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.

3

CTs Deep Learning Revenue → CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

2

22

22 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

result: yes

25

145

145 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Build Your Own Forecasting Bot in 30 Minutes With Our Tutorial Video

8

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: July 2026 Updates

7

How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?

2

52

52 forecasters

Will at least one paper published in Nature, Science, or Cell list an AI system as a formally credited author before January 1, 2030?

80% chance

17

17 forecasters

80%chance

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

6

62

62 forecasters

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

99% chance

33

179

179 forecasters

99%chance

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

10

58

58 forecasters

By what date will an AI system demonstrate human-level accuracy in extracting data from all types of charts in documents?

22 Apr 2027 (26 Nov 2026 - 25 Nov 2027)

2

18

18 forecasters

22 Apr 2027

(26 Nov 2026 - 25 Nov 2027)

When will an AI model capable of autonomously generating accurate and complete book summaries be commonly available?

20 Jun 2027 (07 Aug 2026 - 12 May 2028)

10

26

26 forecasters

20 Jun 2027

(07 Aug 2026 - 12 May 2028)

Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?

6

31

31 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?

98% chance

3

6

6 forecasters

Annulled

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

45% chance

38

476

476 forecasters

45%chance

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

9

42

42 forecasters

In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?

result: no

4

16

16 forecasters

ResolvedNo

AI Forecasting in 2026: What 11 Analyses Say

3

FutureEval Bot Tournament Resources Page

4