0 comments
33 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH30%
Google Cloud16%
Microsoft Azure13%
2 comments
40 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH25%
Amazon Web Services5%
Microsoft Azure5%
Contributed by the AI Warning Signs community.
4 comments
13 forecasters
Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?
70%chance
15% this week
11 comments
19 forecasters
When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?
Current estimate
18 Jun 2026
Key Factors
9 comments
40 forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?
Mark Zuckerbergresult: No
Sundar Pichairesult: No
Sam Altmanresult: No
632 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Aug 2033
Key Factors
568 comments
1.7k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
17 Nov 2027
Key Factors
11 comments
138 forecasters
Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?
91%chance
13 comments
132 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?
95%chance