What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments1616 forecasters
Will a bill limiting presidential tariff authority pass both chambers of the 120th Congress, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments2525 forecasters
Will a bill restricting federal abortion funding or access pass both chambers of the 120th Congress, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments2525 forecasters
Will the U.S. Congress limit presidential war powers before January 3, 2029, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments2727 forecasters
Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 US Senate election in the following states?10 comments5656 forecasters
Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states?91616 comments3838 forecasters
Which party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?192828 comments561561 forecasters
Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections?157373 comments314314 forecasters
Will the 2026 U.S. midterm elections be considered "free and fair"?87% chance577 comments4848 forecasters87%chance
Which party will control the US Congress following the 2026 midterm elections?1155 comments117117 forecasters
Will a court change the winner of a 2026 election for U.S. House, Senate, or a top statewide office?6% chance344 comments194194 forecasters6%chance
Which party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?11 comment1919 forecasters
Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?19191 comments9494 forecasters
Will U.S. Congress pass new limits on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in the following years?133 comments111111 forecasters
Will two or more losing major-party candidates for governor or U.S. Senator in competitive races refuse to concede defeat in the following general elections?10 comments9393 forecasters
In the following U.S. presidential elections, will any state fail to submit a slate of electoral votes to Congress by the safe harbor deadline?0 comments9292 forecasters
Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?result: no91111 comments9393 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?result: no63434 comments8181 forecastersResolvedNo
Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?result: yes544 comments6565 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the US Congress's 538 approval rating be greater than or equal to 22.0% on December 30, 2024?result: no6060 comments3131 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Democratic Congresswoman Yadira Caraveo be re-elected in Colorado's 8th Congressional District in the 2024 election?result: no9595 comments3535 forecastersResolvedNo
How many Congresspeople will be endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America on January 4th, 2031?13.2 congresspeople (4.66 - 29.4)344 comments99 forecasters13.2 congresspeople (4.66 - 29.4)