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US Democracy Index

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Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?

Both elections60.5%

Only Virginia24.2%

Only New Jersey9.5%

This question is closed for forecasting.

19 comments

120 forecasters

Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?

Both elections76.4%

Only Virginia15.7%

Only New Jersey5%

0 comments

46 forecasters

Will two or more losing major-party candidates for governor or U.S. Senator in competitive races refuse to concede defeat in the following general elections?

0 comments

45 forecasters

In the following U.S. presidential elections, will any state fail to submit a slate of electoral votes to Congress by the safe harbor deadline?

9 comments

130 forecasters

Who will win the Texas 18th district special election?

Amanda Edwards42.6%

Christian Menefee31.8%

Jolanda Jones12.8%

73 comments

314 forecasters

Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections?

Democrat Senate, Rep Houseresult: Yes

Republican Senate & Houseresult: No

Republican Senate, Dem Houseresult: No

0 comments

24 forecasters

Which party will control the US Congress following the 2026 midterm elections?

Rep Senate / Dem House60.9%

Dem Senate / Dem House20%

Rep Senate / Rep House18.2%

16 comments

38 forecasters

Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states?

Texasresult: Yes

Floridaresult: Yes

Missouriresult: Yes

2 comments

138 forecasters

Will a court change the winner of a 2026 election for U.S. House, Senate, or a top statewide office?

10%chance

4 comments

9 forecasters

How many Congresspeople will be endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America on January 4th, 2031?

Current estimate

10.8 congresspeople