Will the U.S. Congress limit presidential war powers before January 3, 2029, conditional on control of Congress?44 comments7676 forecasters
Will AI safety legislation be enacted in 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?122 comments6666 forecasters
Which party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?22 comments251251 forecasters
What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?33 comments5959 forecasters
Which party will control the US Congress following the 2026 midterm elections?1388 comments201201 forecasters
Will a bill limiting presidential tariff authority pass both chambers of the 120th Congress, conditional on control of Congress?111 comment7171 forecasters
What will the total enacted U.S. foreign aid appropriations be for FY2028, conditional on control of Congress?111 comment5050 forecasters
Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 US Senate election in the following states?388 comments136136 forecasters
Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections?157373 comments314314 forecasters
Which party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?202929 comments620620 forecasters
What will the U.S. score on the Rule of Law Index in 2028, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments2828 forecasters
Will a bill restricting federal abortion funding or access pass both chambers of the 120th Congress, conditional on control of Congress?11 comment7070 forecasters
Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states?91616 comments3838 forecasters
Will the 120th Congress pass a bill restoring enhanced ACA premium tax credits, conditional on control of Congress?55 comments5858 forecasters
Will the 2026 U.S. midterm elections be considered "free and fair"?92% chance388 comments5252 forecasters92%chance
Will two or more losing major-party candidates for governor or U.S. Senator in competitive races refuse to concede defeat in the following general elections?10 comments114114 forecasters
Will U.S. Congress pass new limits on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in the following years?133 comments126126 forecasters
In the following U.S. presidential elections, will any state fail to submit a slate of electoral votes to Congress by the safe harbor deadline?0 comments110110 forecasters
Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?result: yes544 comments6565 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the US Congress's 538 approval rating be greater than or equal to 22.0% on December 30, 2024?result: no6060 comments3131 forecastersResolvedNo
Will a court change the winner of a 2026 election for U.S. House, Senate, or a top statewide office?5% chance344 comments202202 forecasters5%chance