How many confirmed deaths will be attributed to the US-Israel-Iran war over the course of 2026?66 comments22 forecasters
How many distinct NATO member states will formally request Article 4 consultations citing the 2026 Iran conflict before May 1, 2026?0 member states (0 - 2)111111 comments112112 forecasters0 member states (0 - 2)
Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?4% chance161717 comments224224 forecasters4%chance
Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024?result: yes766 comments6666 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the Republic of Ireland abandon the policy of military neutrality before 2030?25% chance388 comments3636 forecasters25%chance
Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?result: no122727 comments210210 forecastersResolvedNo
If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?152020 comments3333 forecasters
When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?81616 comments1515 forecasters
When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?21 Sep 2027 (28 Jan 2027 - 25 Sep 2028)47171171 comments391391 forecasters21 Sep 2027 (28 Jan 2027 - 25 Sep 2028)
Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?51% chance111010 comments5959 forecasters51%chance
Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?result: no276363 comments397397 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?result: no0 comments1414 forecastersResolvedNo
Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?123232 comments9595 forecasters
Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?result: no41818 comments190190 forecastersResolvedNo
Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?result: no4646 comments2929 forecastersResolvedNo
Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?5% chance173232 comments158158 forecasters5%chance
Will state-based conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?20% chance422 comments3939 forecasters20%chance
When (if ever) will Russia conduct a direct military attack against a NATO member state?26 Aug 2030 (15 Jul 2028 - Aug 2035)41212 comments1616 forecasters26 Aug 2030 (15 Jul 2028 - Aug 2035)
Will any national military or state-affiliated armed forces deploy at least 5,000 quadruped robots in an active conflict zone before 2031?40% chance88 comments4545 forecasters40%chance
Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?result: no955 comments100100 forecastersResolvedNo