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US Democracy Index

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Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?

7%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

15 forecasters

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?

62%chance

6% this week

11 comments

82 forecasters

Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in ⩾20 deaths between October 1 and December 15, 2025?

4%chance

4% this week

Key Factors

5 comments

100 forecasters

Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?

resultNo

0 comments

97 forecasters

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

38%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

28%

1 1 comment

5 forecasters

0 comments

98 forecasters

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

15 comments

195 forecasters

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

2%chance

9 comments

111 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

20 comments

33 forecasters

If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?

SevastopolAnnulled

Luhansk cityAnnulled

DzhankoiAnnulled