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Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance

18% this week

8 comments

Will Poland and Ukraine settle the Przewodów incident before 2024?

Annulled

24 comments

93 forecasters

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

10%chance

5% this week

8 comments

74 forecasters

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Not before 202697.2%

1 October 2025 - 31 December 20252.5%

1 January 2025 - 31 March 20250.1%

1 comment

49 forecasters

Will Ukrainian forces secure control of the specified crossroads near Vilne and Kucheriv Yar by August 22, 2025, as indicated by ISW mapping or equivalent criteria?

resultNo

155 comments

341 forecasters

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

Current estimate

01 Nov 2026

Contributed by the Sudan Community community.

0 comments

3 forecasters

Will any of Sudan's seven neighboring countries officially announce a complete border closure with Sudan citing conflict spillover or security concerns before July 1, 2026?

22%chance

40 comments

26 forecasters

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

PolandAmbiguous

LatviaAmbiguous

LithuaniaAmbiguous

condition

31 forecasters

The Taiwan Tinderbox

32 comments

95 forecasters

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

IranAnnulled

LebanonAnnulled

Saudi ArabiaAnnulled

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will Poland and Ukraine settle the Przewodów incident before 2024?

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Will Ukrainian forces secure control of the specified crossroads near Vilne and Kucheriv Yar by August 22, 2025, as indicated by ISW mapping or equivalent criteria?

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

Will any of Sudan's seven neighboring countries officially announce a complete border closure with Sudan citing conflict spillover or security concerns before July 1, 2026?

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

US is a NATO Member until 2029?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will Poland and Ukraine settle the Przewodów incident before 2024?

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Will Ukrainian forces secure control of the specified crossroads near Vilne and Kucheriv Yar by August 22, 2025, as indicated by ISW mapping or equivalent criteria?

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

Will any of Sudan's seven neighboring countries officially announce a complete border closure with Sudan citing conflict spillover or security concerns before July 1, 2026?

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

US is a NATO Member until 2029?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?