Will a Cognitive-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?15% chance44 comments22 forecasters15%chance
Will a Space-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?26.5% chance1111 comments22 forecasters26.5%chance
Will a Land-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?22.5% chance33 comments22 forecasters22.5%chance
Will an Air-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?50% chance33 comments22 forecasters50%chance
Will a Space-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?17.5% chance66 comments22 forecasters17.5%chance
Will a Protection-domain AMO acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?40% chance44 comments11 forecaster40%chance
Will a Land-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?30% chance11 comment11 forecaster30%chance
Will an Information effects-domain AMO acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?10% chance11 comment11 forecaster10%chance
Will an Air-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?10% chance11 comment11 forecaster10%chance
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before December 1, 2026?0 comments22 forecasters%chance
How many confirmed deaths will be attributed to the US-Israel-Iran war over the course of 2026?77 comments44 forecasters
What will happen in the Russia–Ukraine war between July 20 and September 1, 2026?53636 comments133133 forecasters
When (if ever) will Russia conduct a direct military attack against a NATO member state?24 Feb 2030 (11 Dec 2027 - Aug 2035)41313 comments2323 forecasters24 Feb 2030 (11 Dec 2027 - Aug 2035)
Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?55% chance121313 comments7373 forecasters55%chance
When will be the first year without war?Dec 2062 (Oct 2040 - 2405)411 comment77 forecastersDec 2062 (Oct 2040 - 2405)
When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?02 Dec 2027 (25 Feb 2027 - 26 Jan 2029)48173173 comments407407 forecasters02 Dec 2027 (25 Feb 2027 - 26 Jan 2029)
What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years?101313 comments7171 forecasters
Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?1177 comments3939 forecasters