What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years?141515 comments9898 forecasters
When will nuclear power be used for propulsion in space in a non-test capacity?Jul 2033 (12 Aug 2030 - >Jan 2036)121111 comments7878 forecastersJul 2033 (12 Aug 2030 - >Jan 2036)
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?29.2% chance301515 comments285285 forecasters29.2%chance
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?1499 comments314314 forecasters
By 2035, how many new gigawatts of nuclear power will enter operation in the United States, as verified by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, new state regulators, or other definitive sources?17.2 GW (15.8 - 18)122 comments1111 forecasters17.2 GW (15.8 - 18)
By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?20% chance755 comments6969 forecasters20%chance
Where will Germany decide to build its first permanent radioactive waste repository?422 comments88 forecasters
When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?1377 comments3232 forecasters
How many nuclear reactors will be in operation in the US on December 31, 2035?111 reactors (94.9 - 146)888 comments6565 forecasters111 reactors (94.9 - 146)
Will Australia operate a nuclear power plant before 2042?22% chance111010 comments3232 forecasters22%chance
What percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2025?4.2% (3.78 - 4.91)977 comments2424 forecasters4.2% (3.78 - 4.91)
What percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2040?5.6% (3.3 - 8.83)911 comment2525 forecasters5.6% (3.3 - 8.83)
How many terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from nuclear power worldwide in the year 2030?3035 TWh (2486 - 3718)666 comments1717 forecasters3035 TWh (2486 - 3718)
What percent of US energy will be produced by nuclear fission power in 2050?10% (5.75 - 16.3)161111 comments4747 forecasters10% (5.75 - 16.3)
If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?10% chance211 comment2020 forecasters10%chance
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?0.176% (0.0348 - 0.36)111 comment2121 forecasters0.176% (0.0348 - 0.36)
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?39.3% chance11 comment3333 forecasters39.3%chance
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?0.494% (0.0126 - 0.974)101414 comments3030 forecasters0.494% (0.0126 - 0.974)
Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?7% chance466363 comments347347 forecasters7%chance