By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?15% chance755 comments7171 forecasters15%chance
When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?1377 comments3232 forecasters
What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years?131010 comments9696 forecasters
Will Australia operate a nuclear power plant before 2042?22% chance111010 comments3232 forecasters22%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?30% chance281515 comments287287 forecasters30%chance
What percent of US energy will be produced by nuclear fission power in 2050?10% (5.92 - 15.7)151111 comments4747 forecasters10% (5.92 - 15.7)
When will nuclear power be used for propulsion in space in a non-test capacity?Oct 2034 (Feb 2032 - >Jan 2036)121111 comments7575 forecastersOct 2034 (Feb 2032 - >Jan 2036)
If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?10% chance211 comment2121 forecasters10%chance
Will we reach 2035 without the detonation of a non-test nuclear weapon?74.1% chance303535 comments193193 forecasters74.1%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?7% chance181717 comments200200 forecasters7%chance
How many terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from nuclear power worldwide in the year 2030?3109 TWh (2495 - 3985)666 comments1717 forecasters3109 TWh (2495 - 3985)
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?1499 comments314314 forecasters
By 2035, how many new gigawatts of nuclear power will enter operation in the United States, as verified by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, new state regulators, or other definitive sources?17.4 GW (15.8 - 18.3)122 comments1111 forecasters17.4 GW (15.8 - 18.3)
Where will Germany decide to build its first permanent radioactive waste repository?422 comments88 forecasters
How many nuclear reactors will be in operation in the US on December 31, 2035?172 reactors (111 - 227)888 comments6565 forecasters172 reactors (111 - 227)
What percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2025?3.94% (3.6 - 4.32)977 comments2323 forecasters3.94% (3.6 - 4.32)
What percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2040?5.67% (3.32 - 9.08)811 comment2525 forecasters5.67% (3.32 - 9.08)
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?0.228% (0.0485 - 0.501)111 comment2121 forecasters0.228% (0.0485 - 0.501)
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?39.3% chance11 comment3535 forecasters39.3%chance
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?0.509% (0.0171 - 0.982)101414 comments3030 forecasters0.509% (0.0171 - 0.982)
Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?1% chance722 comments6464 forecasters1%chance