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US Democracy Index

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Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

5 comments

66 forecasters

By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?

20%chance

4% this week

21 comments

74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2%

Japan1%

1 comment

19 forecasters

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

10%chance

15 comments

282 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

29%chance

32 comments

176 forecasters

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

75%chance

11 comments

47 forecasters

What percent of US energy will be produced by nuclear fission power in 2050?

Current estimate

9.69%

9 comments

310 forecasters

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

Ukraine18%

Israel13%

Pakistan12%

10 comments

32 forecasters

Will Australia operate a nuclear power plant before 2042?

22%chance

Contributed by the Foresight Institute community.

2 comments

8 forecasters

By 2035, how many new gigawatts of nuclear power will enter operation in the United States, as verified by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, new state regulators, or other definitive sources?

Current estimate

14.7 GW