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How many terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from nuclear power worldwide in the year 2030?

3035 TWh (2486 - 3718)

6

17

17 forecasters

3035 TWh

(2486 - 3718)

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

9

126

126 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

11

76

76 forecasters

Will Australia operate a nuclear power plant before 2042?

22% chance

11

31

31 forecasters

22%chance

How many nuclear reactors will be in operation in the US on December 31, 2035?

125 reactors (97 - 179)

8

65

65 forecasters

125 reactors

(97 - 179)

What percent of US energy will be produced by nuclear fission power in 2050?

10.1% (6.16 - 15.6)

16

47

47 forecasters

10.1%

(6.16 - 15.6)

Where will Germany decide to build its first permanent radioactive waste repository?

4

8

8 forecasters

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation before the following years?

32

32 forecasters

By 2035, how many new gigawatts of nuclear power will enter operation in the United States, as verified by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, new state regulators, or other definitive sources?

17 GW (15.4 - 17.9)

1

11

11 forecasters

17 GW

(15.4 - 17.9)

What percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2040?

5.6% (3.3 - 8.83)

9

25

25 forecasters

5.6%

(3.3 - 8.83)

Will we reach 2035 without the detonation of a non-test nuclear weapon?

75% chance

30

192

192 forecasters

75%chance

By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?

20% chance

7

69

69 forecasters

20%chance

What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years?

13

96

96 forecasters

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

14

314

314 forecasters

When will nuclear power be used for propulsion in space in a non-test capacity?

May 2033 (19 Dec 2029 - >Jan 2036)

12

75

75 forecasters

May 2033

(19 Dec 2029 - >Jan 2036)

When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?

13

32

32 forecasters

What percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2025?

3.96% (3.62 - 4.32)

9

24

24 forecasters

3.96%

(3.62 - 4.32)

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

10% chance

2

20

20 forecasters

10%chance

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

0.201% (0.0405 - 0.412)

1

21

21 forecasters

0.201%

(0.0405 - 0.412)

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?

39.3% chance

33

33 forecasters

39.3%chance

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?

0.433% (0.0122 - 0.969)

10

30

30 forecasters

0.433%

(0.0122 - 0.969)

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

1% chance

7

65

65 forecasters

1%chance