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3.9k comments
3.6k forecasters

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes
Gretchen Whitmerresult: No
Pete Buttigiegresult: No

Launched: The RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge | $10K in Prizes + Opportunities for Students

8
1616 comments
RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge
82 comments
235 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump (R)result: Yes
Kamala Harris (D)result: No
Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled

Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

17
66 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
0 comments
6 forecasters

Will the 2025 return of professional investor Bill Ackman beat the return of any of these politicians?

10%chance
38 comments
81 forecasters

Will the US continuously be a Liberal Democracy until 2030, 2040, and 2050?

203061%
204045%
205040%

What questions do you have about the US presidential administration?

6
2020 comments

Predict the Impact of the 2024 US Presidential Election

10
0 comments

Public Figures: New Figure Suggestions

34
183183 comments

Scott Alexander's 2022 Predictions

15
0 comments
2022 Scott Alexander predictions