0 comments
7 forecasters
Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?
2 comments
51 forecasters
Will Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa announce that they are dropping out of the 2025 NYC mayoral race before October 1, 2025?
20%chance
5% this week
82 comments
235 forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump (R)result: Yes
Kamala Harris (D)result: No
Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled
3 comments
39 forecasters
Will the United States drop below a 7 in the Democracy index by 2040?
48%chance
8% this week
29 comments
80 forecasters
Will the US continuously be a Liberal Democracy until 2030, 2040, and 2050?
203055%
204040%
205035%
7 comments
36 forecasters
What will Poland's Economist Democracy Index be in 2030?
Current estimate
7.36
0 comments
92 forecasters
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?
Current estimate
7.23
12 comments
33 forecasters
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?
8%chance