38 comments
80 forecasters
Will the US continuously be a Liberal Democracy until 2030, 2040, and 2050?
203060%
204040%
205033%
2 comments
34 forecasters
Will the Economist stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?
15%chance
5% this week
82 comments
235 forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump (R)result: Yes
Kamala Harris (D)result: No
Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled
0 comments
43 forecasters
Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?
0 comments
98 forecasters
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?
Current estimate
7.31
30 comments
44 forecasters
If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?
Texas49%
California35%
Florida20%
12 comments
35 forecasters
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?
10%chance
73 comments
69 forecasters
Who will get the most votes in the first round of the May 2025 Polish election?
Rafał Trzaskowskiresult: Yes
Karol Nawrocki25.5%
Someone else5.1%