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What will Poland's Economist Democracy Index be in 2030?

7.27 (6.68 - 7.8)

9

37

37 forecasters

7.27

(6.68 - 7.8)

What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?

59

59 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

19

235

235 forecasters

What will the U.S. score on the Rule of Law Index in 2028, conditional on control of Congress?

28

28 forecasters

What will Adjacent's RED and BLUE political index values be at the 2026 midterms?

9

9 forecasters

Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?

5% chance

1

43

43 forecasters

5%chance

Will Poland's V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index fall below 0.65 for 2027?

50% chance

6

6 forecasters

50%chance

What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?

7.54 (7.32 - 7.73)

2

149

149 forecasters

7.54

(7.32 - 7.73)

Announcing the US Midterms 2026 Tournament - $10,000 Prize Pool

10

What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?

7.41 (6.57 - 8.35)

15

57

57 forecasters

7.41

(6.57 - 8.35)

Who will get the most votes in the first round of the May 2025 Polish election?

69

69 forecasters

Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?

result: no

27

318

318 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will the Economist stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?

10% chance

6

45

45 forecasters

10%chance

How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"?

4.03 (3.9 - 4.2)

7

46

46 forecasters

Resolved4

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → US vs. OECD PISA Math Scores? (2029)

2

5

5 forecasters

Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections?

5

44

44 forecasters

If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?

11

46

46 forecasters

Will the United States drop below a 7 in the Democracy index by 2040?

60% chance

10

44

44 forecasters

60%chance

What will be the US' score in the Freedom in the World Report for 2050?

78.9 points (66.9 - 90.2)

9

24

24 forecasters

78.9 points

(66.9 - 90.2)

Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?

1% chance

12

102

102 forecasters

1%chance

Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland before 2031?

45% chance

7

77

77 forecasters

45%chance

Which anonymous administration figure authored the NYT editorial?

8