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The 2026 US Midterms Tracker is Live!

1

Announcing the US Midterms 2026 Tournament - $10,000 Prize Pool

9

What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?

16

16 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

19

235

235 forecasters

Announcing: Bright Line Watch Tournament Winners!

6

If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?

11

46

46 forecasters

What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?

7.51 (7.25 - 7.69)

2

135

135 forecasters

7.51

(7.25 - 7.69)

How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"?

4.03 (3.9 - 4.2)

7

46

46 forecasters

4.03

(3.9 - 4.2)

$10,000 Prize Pool for the U.S. Democracy Threat Index

23

Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland before 2031?

50% chance

7

76

76 forecasters

50%chance

Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?

1% chance

12

103

103 forecasters

1%chance

Who will get the most votes in the first round of the May 2025 Polish election?

69

69 forecasters

Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?

result: no

27

318

318 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?

7% chance

2

42

42 forecasters

7%chance

Will the Economist stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?

15% chance

6

44

44 forecasters

15%chance

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → US vs. OECD PISA Math Scores? (2029)

2

5

5 forecasters

Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections?

5

44

44 forecasters

Will the United States drop below a 7 in the Democracy index by 2040?

57% chance

10

44

44 forecasters

57%chance

What will be the US' score in the Freedom in the World Report for 2050?

77.4 points (65.8 - 83.7)

9

23

23 forecasters

77.4 points

(65.8 - 83.7)

What will Poland's Economist Democracy Index be in 2030?

7.42 (6.77 - 8.26)

9

37

37 forecasters

7.42

(6.77 - 8.26)

What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?

7.12 (6.27 - 7.77)

15

56

56 forecasters

7.12

(6.27 - 7.77)

Which anonymous administration figure authored the NYT editorial?

8

Future Perfect 2020 Series

7

Possible Worlds Series

11