82 comments
235 forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump (R)result: Yes
Kamala Harris (D)result: No
Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled
0 comments
6 forecasters
Will the 2025 return of professional investor Bill Ackman beat the return of any of these politicians?
10%chance
0 comments
46 forecasters
Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?
38 comments
81 forecasters
Will the US continuously be a Liberal Democracy until 2030, 2040, and 2050?
203061%
204045%
205040%
2 comments
36 forecasters
Will the Economist stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?
20%chance
5% this week
83 comments
46 forecasters
How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"?
30 comments
45 forecasters
If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?
Texas50%
California36%
Florida20%
14 comments
35 forecasters
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?
10%chance