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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

16
55 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
82 comments
235 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump (R)result: Yes
Kamala Harris (D)result: No
Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled
13 comments
35 forecasters

Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?

10%chance
0 comments
44 forecasters

Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?

New Questions Live in $15k POTUS Predictions Tournament

40
1111 comments
POTUS Predictions
11 comments
82 forecasters

Will Blake Masters be President of the United States before 2070?

1%chance

What questions do you have about the US presidential administration?

6
2020 comments

Predict the Impact of the 2024 US Presidential Election

10
0 comments

Forecast International Elections With Data Journalist Kiko Llaneras

11
33 comments

Scott Alexander's 2022 Predictions

15
0 comments
2022 Scott Alexander predictions