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Will the United States, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?

Current estimate

Revealed

tomorrow

0 comments

87 forecasters

Between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC), will the IAEA publicly report Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% U-235 at or below 396.8 kg (U mass)?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

13 comments

58 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

5%chance

Key Factors

0 comments

92 forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

14 comments

21 forecasters

Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?

12%chance

13% this week

0 comments

101 forecasters

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

69 comments

503 forecasters

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

25%chance

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.