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0 comments
101 forecasters

Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?

17.2%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
87 forecasters

Between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC), will the IAEA publicly report Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% U-235 at or below 396.8 kg (U mass)?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
100 forecasters

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
99 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
22 forecasters

Will the United States, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?

3%chance
3% this week
13 comments
66 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

5%chance

Key Factors

0 comments
92 forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

15 comments
31 forecasters

On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

26 comments
45 forecasters

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

5%chance

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

0 comments
12 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?

15%chance
10% this week