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How many cumulative losses of all off-site power at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will the IAEA have reported as of June 14, 2026?

17 value (16 - 18)

88

88 forecasters

17 value

(16 - 18)

Will there be at least one INES Level 3 or higher event in 2026 listed by May 1, 2026?

result: no

122 122 comments

120

120 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant experience another complete loss of external power before May 1, 2026?

result: yes

105 105 comments

105

105 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before May 1, 2026?

result: no

1

107 107 comments

107

107 forecasters

ResolvedNo

How many distinct NATO member states will formally request Article 4 consultations citing the 2026 Iran conflict before May 1, 2026?

0 member states (0 - 2)

111 111 comments

112

112 forecasters

0 member states

(0 - 2)

When will a sitting US President make a declaration about AI that meets the following criterion?

11

17

17 forecasters

When will nuclear fusion provide at least 0.1% of the world's primary energy?

Mar 2048 (May 2040 - Jun 2059)

20

99

99 forecasters

Mar 2048

(May 2040 - Jun 2059)

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30% chance

24

329

329 forecasters

30%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27% chance

36

468

468 forecasters

27%chance

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

result: no

99

99 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

9

126

126 forecasters

If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?

15

33

33 forecasters

Market Pulse Challenge 26Q2: Can You Beat the Market and the Crowd?

7

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

11

76

76 forecasters

When, in 2025, will the United States or Israel attack an Islamic Republic of Iran nuclear facility?

30 Jun 2025 (14 Jun 2025 15:19 - >31 Dec 2025)

15

15 forecasters

30 Jun 2025

(14 Jun 2025 15:19 - >31 Dec 2025)

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?

result: no

5

115

115 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?

result: no

8

526

526 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will the US strike Iran by the end of May 2025?

result: no

1

29

29 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2027?

1.2% chance

1

135

135 forecasters

1.2%chance

Announcing: Epoch AI Robotics Series

8

Will the United States use a nuclear weapon before May 2026?

result: no

-2

47

47 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

20% chance

3

34

34 forecasters

20%chance

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?

result: no

54

508 508 comments

1.2k

1.2k forecasters

ResolvedNo

Conditional on Russia attacking Ukraine with at least one nuclear weapon before 2024, will Russia use at least one nuclear weapon on Kyiv before 2024?

3.5% chance

4

97

97 forecasters

Annulled