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Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

Current estimate

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in 2 hours

Key Factors

0 comments

92 forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

17 comments

148 forecasters

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

9%chance

14 comments

31 forecasters

On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

0 comments

98 forecasters

Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

3 comments

27 forecasters

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

19%chance

10.7% this week

0 comments

101 forecasters

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

19 comments

14 forecasters

Will China conduct a test detonation of a nuclear weapon before 2028?

8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

84 forecasters

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.