102.029 | What will be the official death count for the 2023 Hawai'i wildfires as of January 1, 2024? | Continuous |
97.113 | How many Palestinian prisoners/detainees will Israel announce that it will release before 2024? | Continuous |
94.488 | Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024? | Binary |
94.186 | Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023? | Binary |
90.525 | Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023? | Binary |
89.177 | Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
86.163 | Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place? | Binary |
83.780 | Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024? | Binary |
80.772 | Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023? | Binary |
79.035 | Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
70.952 | Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema) | Binary |
70.890 | Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
69.934 | Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023? | Binary |
69.801 | Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023? | Binary |
62.223 | Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history? | Binary |
61.780 | Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
61.135 | Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023? | Binary |
56.155 | Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024? | Binary |
53.173 | Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023? | Binary |
51.123 | Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days? | Binary |
50.786 | Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List? | Binary |
49.098 | Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024? | Binary |
48.060 | Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India? | Binary |
47.705 | Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
46.048 | Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023? | Binary |
45.676 | Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023? | Binary |
45.419 | Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023? | Binary |
44.157 | When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT? | Continuous |
43.527 | Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023? | Binary |
42.885 | Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
41.741 | Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023? | Binary |
38.427 | Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29? | Binary |
36.367 | Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023? | Binary |
36.169 | Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
35.033 | Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023? | Binary |
33.789 | Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023? | Binary |
32.629 | Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate? | Binary |
31.276 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024? | Binary |
28.368 | What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023? | Continuous |
27.533 | Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
26.415 | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023? | Continuous |
22.246 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023) | Binary |
20.951 | Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023? | Binary |
20.718 | Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election? | Binary |
20.542 | What will be the total daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit counts in Virginia in 2023? | Continuous |
20.246 | Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024? | Binary |
19.788 | What will be the highest daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit count in Virginia in 2023? | Continuous |
17.282 | Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024? | Binary |
16.625 | Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024? | Binary |
15.099 | Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024? | Binary |
13.692 | Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023? | Binary |
13.389 | Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023? | Binary |
11.950 | Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024? | Binary |
11.417 | What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release? | Continuous |
10.624 | Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election? | Binary |
7.417 | Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
6.951 | Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024? | Binary |
6.903 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023? | Binary |
6.500 | Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023? | Binary |
5.393 | Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon? | Binary |
5.082 | Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended? | Binary |
3.960 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024) | Binary |
2.535 | Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon? | Binary |
0.348 | Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor) | Continuous |
0.254 | Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023? | Binary |
-8.295 | Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety? | Binary |
-9.926 | Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023? | Binary |
-11.105 | Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023? | Binary |
-13.055 | Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023? | Binary |
-16.234 | Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023? | Binary |
-35.350 | Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel? | Binary |
-46.609 | Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024? | Binary |
-55.190 | Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023? | Binary |
-78.074 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023? | Continuous |
-128.294 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González) | Binary |
-191.730 | Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024? | Binary |