jack

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

9.899	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
243.842	What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024?	Continuous
79.656	How many quantum computing patents will China have filed before 2024?	Continuous
53.138	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
50.636	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
48.023	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
46.383	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
46.189	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
36.344	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
34.359	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
33.469	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
27.931	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
27.582	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
23.787	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
20.227	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
18.696	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
18.474	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
17.254	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
17.134	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
17.020	Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?	Binary
16.066	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
15.121	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
14.517	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
13.979	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
12.974	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
12.964	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
12.876	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
11.636	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
11.299	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
10.768	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
10.718	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
9.742	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
9.539	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
8.601	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
8.413	Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?	Binary
7.427	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
6.785	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
5.987	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.928	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
5.750	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
5.745	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
5.636	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
4.616	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
4.318	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
4.187	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
3.738	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
3.661	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
3.581	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
3.384	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
3.364	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
3.349	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
3.267	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
3.254	By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?	Binary
3.183	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
2.952	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
2.914	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.818	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
2.727	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
2.721	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
2.668	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
1.971	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
1.863	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
1.824	Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024?	Binary
1.053	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
0.713	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
0.694	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
0.150	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
0.112	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
0.088	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
-0.123	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
-0.612	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
-1.852	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
-2.370	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
-2.922	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
-3.539	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
-3.966	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
-6.480	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
-7.267	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
-9.692	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
-10.300	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
-10.426	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
-11.883	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
-11.884	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
-13.672	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-13.929	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
-14.967	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
-15.482	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
-24.298	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
-24.869	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
-29.401	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-40.906	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous