jowo

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

13.01	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
71.032	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
69.616	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
68.655	Where will Sitong Bridge rank in FreeWeibo's trending topics on the following dates? (2023-01-26)	Continuous
59.945	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
54.669	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
45.242	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
38.957	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
35.179	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
35.114	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
32.568	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
32.226	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
31.566	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
30.851	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
27.694	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
27.257	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
25.535	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
21.302	Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?	Binary
19.655	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
19.311	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Ghana)	Binary
19.277	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
19.131	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
18.822	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
18.506	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
18.058	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
17.120	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
16.465	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
13.741	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.193	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
13.056	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
12.877	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
12.808	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
12.599	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
11.262	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
10.928	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
10.842	How many politically motivated criminal offenses will be reported in Germany for 2022?	Continuous
9.691	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
9.260	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.588	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
8.470	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
8.403	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
7.614	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
7.176	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
6.563	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
6.451	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
6.339	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
6.274	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
6.192	Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?	Binary
6.070	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
6.002	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
5.712	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
5.627	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
4.890	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
4.767	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
4.583	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
3.731	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
3.195	What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
3.059	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
1.285	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
1.074	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
0.789	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.664	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
0.657	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.602	Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?	Binary
0.394	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
0.041	Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft)	Binary
-0.291	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
-0.543	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
-1.478	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
-2.232	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
-2.325	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
-2.356	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
-2.871	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Continuous
-5.382	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
-8.233	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
-26.132	Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?	Binary
-27.574	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-48.285	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary