tbyoln

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

8.753	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
60.688	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
53.598	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
39.391	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
38.221	Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)?	Continuous
29.626	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
26.648	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
26.479	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
26.226	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
25.882	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
20.348	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
19.477	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
19.315	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
16.966	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
14.403	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
13.954	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
13.812	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
13.722	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
13.622	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
12.882	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
12.702	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
11.457	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
11.222	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.011	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
10.989	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
9.345	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
9.083	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
8.428	Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?	Binary
8.414	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
8.122	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
8.020	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
7.576	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
7.258	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
6.836	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
6.535	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
6.066	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
6.045	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
5.640	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
5.563	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
5.357	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
4.871	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
4.751	By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?	Binary
4.716	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
4.553	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
4.206	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
4.137	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.867	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
3.586	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
3.119	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
3.036	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
2.854	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
2.690	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
2.654	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
2.419	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
2.336	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
1.889	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
1.814	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
1.642	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
1.520	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
1.470	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
1.357	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
0.968	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
0.852	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
0.700	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
0.671	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
0.039	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
-0.117	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
-3.401	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
-5.399	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-8.098	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
-9.107	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
-10.403	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-16.826	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-25.348	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary