EvanHarper

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.348k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
97.456	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
90.094	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
79.242	Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?	Binary
77.939	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
76.307	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
72.442	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
71.906	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
71.889	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
70.927	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
70.124	Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?	Binary
67.417	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
66.554	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
65.702	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
60.741	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
59.483	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
52.269	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
52.060	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
51.205	Airships by 2019?	Binary
44.243	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
44.047	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
43.837	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
43.506	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
41.134	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
38.003	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
36.321	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
35.766	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
34.745	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
34.522	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
32.848	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
30.923	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
29.498	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
27.400	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
26.069	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
25.633	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
25.469	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
25.391	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
24.509	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
20.964	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
18.726	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
16.609	Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize?	Binary
16.499	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
13.902	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
11.822	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
9.651	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
7.098	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
4.240	Will Kirsten Gillibrand drop out before the New York primary?	Binary
3.877	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
1.840	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
0.489	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
0.197	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
-	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
-0.098	Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?	Binary
-2.896	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
-22.498	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
-41.647	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-69.468	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
-85.521	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
-165.415	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary
-288.280	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary