DanielFilan

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.868k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
97.918	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
94.537	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
90.699	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
90.104	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
83.068	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
81.304	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
76.499	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
75.950	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
75.439	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
71.153	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
67.429	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
67.424	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
65.475	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
65.422	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
63.508	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
63.096	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
59.922	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
59.191	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
56.539	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
55.471	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
55.386	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
52.925	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
51.753	Who will win the 'Greatest of All Time' Jeopardy tournament with Ken Jennings, Brad Rutter, and James Holzhauer?	Continuous
49.136	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
48.862	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
48.712	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
48.532	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
48.025	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
47.718	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
45.590	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
44.562	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
41.034	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
40.960	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
39.002	When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI?	Continuous
35.814	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
34.882	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
31.432	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
28.205	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
26.595	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
24.740	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
24.398	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
24.099	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
23.732	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
23.569	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
22.782	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
21.440	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
21.432	What percent of ArXiv AI publications in the calendar year 2019 will be in the subcategory “Computation and Language”?	Continuous
18.647	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
18.484	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
14.488	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
14.380	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
8.528	How large will the largest single grant made by Open Philanthropy in 2020 be?	Continuous
6.268	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
5.877	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
5.620	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
4.890	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
4.063	Will Kirsten Gillibrand drop out before the New York primary?	Binary
3.932	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
3.654	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
3.159	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
-9.715	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
-11.181	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
-20.335	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
-26.949	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
-31.772	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-34.381	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
-45.858	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
-58.651	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-60.634	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-60.844	Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?	Binary
-67.936	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
-69.594	What will Virgin Galactic be worth 6 months after it is listed on the stock market?	Continuous
-72.333	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
-138.814	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary