raven.kopelman

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

2.568k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.450	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
93.075	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
92.522	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
92.206	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
91.794	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
85.195	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
84.671	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
84.483	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
84.389	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
83.358	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
75.625	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
74.357	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
73.026	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
69.930	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
68.127	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
67.771	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
67.758	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
67.710	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
67.597	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
67.166	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
65.131	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
64.959	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
63.747	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
61.868	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
58.521	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
58.459	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
58.410	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
57.413	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
56.065	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
55.772	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
54.890	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
52.959	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
50.486	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
48.340	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
46.908	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
42.994	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
42.938	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
41.323	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
40.054	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
39.917	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
38.027	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
37.825	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
36.885	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
34.344	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
34.028	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
31.755	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
30.646	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
30.532	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
30.456	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
28.436	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
26.504	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
26.181	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
23.671	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
21.178	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
21.124	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
21.078	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
21.054	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
18.911	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
18.198	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
18.065	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
17.602	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
17.049	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
16.675	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
16.589	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
16.260	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
14.380	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
13.240	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
11.759	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
11.196	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
10.955	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
7.623	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
7.394	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
5.764	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
5.127	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
4.936	When will the next gene therapy treatment receive approval from the FDA?	Continuous
3.101	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
2.833	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
2.829	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
2.103	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
1.954	When will the "large brain preservation" prize be awarded by the Brain Preservation Foundation?	Continuous
1.235	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
1.183	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
0.652	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
0.553	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
-	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
-	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-0.131	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
-4.174	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-7.046	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
-19.837	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
-22.803	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
-24.321	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-33.423	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-48.080	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-68.711	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-73.502	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
-78.040	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
-84.450	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-93.613	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous
-94.070	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
-171.954	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary