aran

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

2.094k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.402	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
97.159	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
95.475	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
91.232	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
91.082	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
88.965	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
83.758	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
82.494	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
80.538	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
75.806	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
75.653	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
74.887	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
65.643	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
65.575	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
64.477	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
64.443	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
60.976	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
60.440	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
58.712	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
58.498	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
57.773	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
57.545	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
56.704	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
51.853	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
51.315	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
49.302	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
48.483	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
47.635	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
47.561	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
46.587	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
45.717	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
43.884	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
42.514	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
41.633	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
41.569	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
40.634	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
40.337	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
38.800	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
38.412	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
38.098	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
37.831	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
37.770	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
37.747	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
37.584	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
37.148	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
33.842	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
32.233	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
30.728	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
30.138	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
29.251	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
27.340	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
27.299	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
25.952	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
25.173	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
21.999	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
21.571	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
21.512	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
21.041	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
19.386	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
18.962	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
18.597	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
15.607	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
14.691	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
13.946	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
13.258	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
11.899	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
11.402	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
11.258	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
10.678	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
8.715	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
6.524	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
4.219	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
2.537	When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?	Continuous
1.591	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
0.237	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
0.001	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
-	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
-2.339	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
-3.164	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-4.255	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
-5.494	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-10.650	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
-11.741	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
-17.107	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-19.632	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
-21.015	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-28.708	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
-28.985	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
-29.319	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
-40.106	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
-42.730	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-54.059	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-83.154	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-87.271	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-95.114	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
-99.695	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
-103.160	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-298.456	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary