darkives

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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8443	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
165.484	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX)	Continuous
132.935	How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2?	Continuous
130.601	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX)	Continuous
98.994	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
98.671	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Total Ban)	Binary
98.575	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
98.263	What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024?	Continuous
98.175	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Licensing for Use)	Binary
96.247	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
96.165	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
95.513	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Specific Groups)	Binary
95.274	Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
95.217	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
95.069	Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case?	Binary
94.238	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
93.714	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
92.345	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
90.925	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
90.910	Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024?	Multiple Choice
90.113	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
89.502	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
89.083	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
87.353	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
86.793	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (2. An anonymous process to raise risks)	Binary
86.155	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
85.987	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Mandatory Disclosure Requirements)	Binary
85.796	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
85.306	At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?	Binary
85.229	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
85.175	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
84.537	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
84.470	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
84.364	Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?	Binary
83.296	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
82.225	On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Multiple Choice
80.729	Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?	Binary
80.095	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
80.037	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
78.987	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?	Binary
78.638	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
78.223	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (1. No agreements prohibiting safety criticism)	Binary
77.975	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024)	Binary
77.863	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
77.863	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
77.863	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden)	Binary
77.863	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
77.863	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
77.863	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth)	Binary
77.863	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper)	Binary
77.863	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar)	Binary
77.863	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet)	Binary
77.863	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson)	Binary
77.863	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo)	Binary
77.863	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters)	Binary
77.853	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
77.512	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
77.500	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
77.356	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
77.272	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly)	Binary
77.068	Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?	Binary
76.519	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
76.482	Who will win the Tour de France 2024?	Multiple Choice
76.027	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro)	Binary
75.591	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear)	Binary
75.576	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
75.220	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024)	Binary
74.858	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
74.108	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
74.063	Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?	Multiple Choice
73.286	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
72.399	Who will win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona?	Multiple Choice
72.397	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
71.778	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
70.034	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (3. A culture of open criticism)	Binary
69.552	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz)	Binary
68.899	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Approved Applications)	Binary
68.350	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
67.426	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
67.308	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
67.107	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Continuous
66.736	Which team will win the National League Central Division during the 2024 Major League Baseball season?	Multiple Choice
66.285	Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?	Binary
66.273	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
65.769	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
65.220	Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024?	Multiple Choice
65.099	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
64.265	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
62.643	What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024?	Multiple Choice
62.526	What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Continuous
60.775	How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Multiple Choice
59.479	What will be the lowest seed to reach the Championship of the 2024 Men's NCAA Tournament?	Multiple Choice
57.698	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
55.951	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
55.206	What will be the outcome of Donald Trump's New York "hush money" criminal trial?	Multiple Choice
55.075	Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Multiple Choice
52.755	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Continuous
51.869	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (4. No retaliation for public risk disclosure)	Binary
51.386	Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?	Binary
50.910	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Joe Biden) (No) → GOP Control of US Senate in 2025	Binary
49.008	Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting?	Multiple Choice
48.537	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Civil Liability Laws)	Binary
47.028	Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship?	Multiple Choice
46.066	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
45.923	Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?	Binary
45.921	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
45.351	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction)	Binary
44.790	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
44.415	Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024?	Multiple Choice
43.242	What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term?	Multiple Choice
42.199	Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?	Binary
41.732	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
41.019	Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth?	Multiple Choice
39.561	How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024?	Multiple Choice
39.099	Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final?	Multiple Choice
36.585	Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
36.435	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
35.505	Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly?	Binary
33.189	Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?	Binary
33.167	What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024?	Continuous
32.536	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
32.424	What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024?	Multiple Choice
32.123	Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran?	Binary
29.677	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
28.483	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
27.775	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
27.497	Which NHL team will win the 2023-24 Stanley Cup?	Multiple Choice
26.507	What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024?	Continuous
24.532	When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers?	Continuous
24.436	Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024?	Binary
23.415	Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections?	Multiple Choice
22.550	On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap?	Binary
22.186	Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest?	Multiple Choice
21.570	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
21.521	Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech?	Binary
21.233	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
19.192	Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?	Binary
18.719	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
18.622	By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting?	Multiple Choice
16.171	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
13.905	When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers?	Continuous
13.846	Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024?	Binary
12.182	If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government?	Multiple Choice
11.662	Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?	Binary
10.823	Which jurisdiction will be the "Tipping Point" in the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
10.764	Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?	Binary
10.262	At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal?	Binary
9.683	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
5.614	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
5.331	[Short Fuse] Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII?	Binary
3.625	Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?	Binary
2.849	What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024?	Multiple Choice
2.677	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
1.171	Will each of these parties be in the ruling coalition in South Africa? (Economic Freedom Fighters)	Binary
1.171	Will each of these parties be in the ruling coalition in South Africa? (Inkatha Freedom Party)	Binary
1.170	Will each of these parties be in the ruling coalition in South Africa? (African National Congress)	Binary
1.043	Will each of these parties be in the ruling coalition in South Africa? (Democratic Alliance)	Binary
1.022	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
1.005	Will each of these parties be in the ruling coalition in South Africa? (uMkhonto we Sizwe Party)	Binary
0.522	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
0.394	[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?	Binary
0.029	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
-2.397	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
-2.744	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
-4.135	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024?	Continuous
-5.105	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
-6.720	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024?	Continuous
-7.730	On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX?	Continuous
-11.691	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-11.804	Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?	Binary
-12.722	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-13.073	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-13.407	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
-15.180	How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024?	Continuous
-15.499	What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs?	Continuous
-18.735	How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024?	Continuous
-18.768	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden) (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-22.524	How disproportional will the 2024 Indian election be?	Continuous
-30.652	Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Multiple Choice
-37.057	Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024?	Binary
-46.725	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-51.267	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
-52.603	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024?	Continuous
-55.085	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-73.912	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-79.710	What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024?	Continuous
-104.270	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
-163.460	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary