Zweihander

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.451k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.183	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
98.148	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
98.115	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
97.078	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
92.472	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
92.191	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
89.505	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
89.448	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
87.705	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
86.004	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
84.724	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
83.186	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
81.647	What percent of ArXiv AI publications in the calendar year 2019 will be in the subcategory “Computation and Language”?	Continuous
81.541	Who will win the 'Greatest of All Time' Jeopardy tournament with Ken Jennings, Brad Rutter, and James Holzhauer?	Continuous
76.578	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
76.496	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
76.156	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
72.044	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
68.291	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
67.762	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
67.722	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
62.001	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
58.238	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
55.731	When will William Barr leave his job as Attorney General of the United States?	Continuous
51.323	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
48.506	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
48.279	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
47.755	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
45.928	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
43.384	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
41.404	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
39.214	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
39.096	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
37.763	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
37.757	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
36.492	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
34.103	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
34.029	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
29.235	When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI?	Continuous
27.953	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
25.985	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
24.916	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
24.591	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
24.591	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
20.974	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
20.602	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
20.129	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
18.356	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
16.506	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
16.103	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
15.269	Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for farm animal welfare by the end 2022?	Binary
13.849	How large will the largest single grant made by Open Philanthropy in 2020 be?	Continuous
13.812	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
13.557	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
12.708	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
7.985	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
5.713	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
5.175	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
5.072	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
3.731	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
3.339	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
2.011	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
1.326	Will Kirsten Gillibrand drop out before the New York primary?	Binary
0.014	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
-9.902	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
-11.044	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-12.119	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
-13.673	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
-18.249	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
-29.771	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-43.301	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
-47.823	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-68.044	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
-73.393	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
-75.285	Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?	Binary
-96.604	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary
-150.936	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
-270.010	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
-528.224	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary