steven0461

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.59k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
92.567	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
91.974	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
85.637	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
78.150	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
76.547	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
74.889	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
73.651	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
73.486	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
71.990	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
71.877	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
68.192	When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI?	Continuous
67.871	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
65.275	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
64.824	What percent of ArXiv AI publications in the calendar year 2019 will be in the subcategory “Computation and Language”?	Continuous
63.083	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
62.689	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
61.244	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
60.372	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
60.313	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
56.161	Who will win the 'Greatest of All Time' Jeopardy tournament with Ken Jennings, Brad Rutter, and James Holzhauer?	Continuous
52.297	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
52.258	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
51.219	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
45.154	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
42.297	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
40.677	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
38.992	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
37.611	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
36.760	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
34.313	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
33.407	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
29.730	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
28.785	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
27.872	When will William Barr leave his job as Attorney General of the United States?	Continuous
25.343	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
24.141	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
16.859	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
15.621	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
14.201	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
11.964	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
11.228	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
9.121	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
8.612	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
8.383	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
8.095	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
7.174	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
7.129	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
4.354	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
3.353	Will Kirsten Gillibrand drop out before the New York primary?	Binary
2.786	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
1.809	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
1.054	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
0.461	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
0.122	Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for farm animal welfare by the end 2022?	Binary
-0.418	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
-2.622	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
-4.044	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
-4.861	How large will the largest single grant made by Open Philanthropy in 2020 be?	Continuous
-5.903	What will Virgin Galactic be worth 6 months after it is listed on the stock market?	Continuous
-12.663	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
-16.795	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
-17.562	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
-24.931	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
-50.130	Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?	Binary
-60.121	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-104.555	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-123.834	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
-135.688	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary