| 161.996 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 112.086 | How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 99.006 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2025) | Binary |
| 98.985 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 98.985 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 98.658 | Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026? | Binary |
| 98.432 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 98.387 | Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026? | Binary |
| 97.202 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 97.080 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 96.943 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 95.496 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 94.671 | Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024? | Binary |
| 94.643 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1) | Binary |
| 94.614 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 94.169 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 94.005 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 92.463 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 92.135 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 92.076 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | Binary |
| 91.594 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 90.841 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 88.953 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2) | Binary |
| 87.825 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 86.862 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 86.273 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 84.654 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Binary |
| 80.880 | Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026? | Binary |
| 79.504 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 78.591 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 78.558 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 76.725 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 76.281 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 76.212 | Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 75.597 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 75.494 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 74.721 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 74.458 | Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026? | Binary |
| 73.178 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 72.644 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 69.955 | By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty? | Binary |
| 69.439 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 69.267 | What will the world population be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 68.498 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 66.756 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 66.342 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| 65.999 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 65.742 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 65.672 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 65.341 | How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024? | Continuous |
| 65.251 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 64.967 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 64.041 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 63.513 | Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026? | Binary |
| 63.451 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 62.638 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 62.116 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 59.334 | When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally? | Continuous |
| 58.468 | Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024? | Binary |
| 58.321 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| 58.184 | How many deaths due to monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide? | Continuous |
| 57.701 | Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024? | Binary |
| 57.322 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 53.056 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 52.900 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 52.286 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 51.991 | How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 51.593 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| 51.222 | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | Binary |
| 50.975 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 49.789 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 48.621 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 47.972 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 47.895 | Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 47.831 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 46.826 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3) | Binary |
| 45.880 | What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022? | Continuous |
| 44.106 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
| 43.549 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 41.400 | What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area? | Continuous |
| 39.408 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
| 38.595 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 37.144 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories)) | Binary |
| 36.688 | Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years? (2026) | Binary |
| 36.682 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour)) | Binary |
| 36.663 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 35.760 | Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 35.671 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 34.112 | Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025? | Binary |
| 31.875 | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Binary |
| 30.470 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 29.782 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 27.413 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 26.416 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 26.404 | Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025? | Binary |
| 26.378 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 23.672 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027? | Binary |
| 23.494 | Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024? | Binary |
| 23.407 | Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match? | Binary |
| 22.678 | How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023? | Continuous |
| 22.549 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 21.999 | Will 2022 be warmer than 2021? | Binary |
| 21.720 | In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
| 20.756 | Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023? | Binary |
| 19.610 | Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025? | Binary |
| 19.568 | What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 19.520 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 17.719 | Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections? | Binary |
| 17.581 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 16.631 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 16.258 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 13.744 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 13.295 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024) | Binary |
| 12.897 | How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 12.475 | What will inflation in the UK be, given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership candidate contest? (2024) | Continuous |
| 12.429 | Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025? | Binary |
| 11.757 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 10.416 | Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)? | Binary |
| 9.744 | When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective? | Continuous |
| 8.917 | Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| 8.267 | Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025? | Binary |
| 7.051 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 5.380 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 5.076 | When will the next UK general election take place? | Continuous |
| 4.970 | When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring? | Continuous |
| 4.372 | Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 3.999 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 3.546 | Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 3.468 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 3.468 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 2.782 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 2.782 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 2.782 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 2.782 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 2.107 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat) | Continuous |
| 2.086 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour) | Continuous |
| 2.019 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative) | Continuous |
| 1.733 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (New Democratic) | Binary |
| 1.733 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Bloc Québécois) | Binary |
| 1.733 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Green) | Binary |
| 1.733 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (People's) | Binary |
| 1.562 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Liberal) | Binary |
| 1.557 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Conservative) | Binary |
| 1.537 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 0.756 | By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 0.496 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.461 | When will Kwasi Kwarteng no longer hold the office of UK chancellor of the Exchequer? | Continuous |
| 0.369 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (CDU/CSU) | Binary |
| 0.369 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (SPD) | Binary |
| 0.369 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD) | Binary |
| 0.369 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Die Linke) | Binary |
| 0.369 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP) | Binary |
| 0.369 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Grüne) | Binary |
| 0.103 | When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month? | Continuous |
| 0.044 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -0.508 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| -1.473 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| -1.662 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| -3.529 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Greens) | Continuous |
| -4.274 | Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? | Binary |
| -4.665 | Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026? | Binary |
| -7.525 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Reform) | Continuous |
| -7.917 | Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| -10.394 | Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza? | Binary |
| -12.009 | Before 2032, will the US declare a new public health emergency due to an infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack? | Binary |
| -12.097 | Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025? | Binary |
| -14.423 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| -18.367 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| -23.369 | Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023? | Binary |
| -24.392 | Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025? | Binary |
| -24.777 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Binary |
| -26.124 | Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? | Binary |
| -27.160 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -28.934 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| -31.974 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| -31.981 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| -34.186 | Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026? | Binary |
| -39.093 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -44.025 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| -55.928 | What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -59.112 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| -84.525 | What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants? | Continuous |
| -85.966 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Starship) | Continuous |
| -99.514 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| -104.170 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| -132.660 | How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -135.319 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |