Alexander230

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2026

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1175	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
78.127	Will the United States use a nuclear weapon before May 2026?	Binary
68.080	Which party's candidate will win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Multiple Choice
58.986	[Short fuse] What will be the Rotten Tomatoes Rating for "Melania" on February 13th, 2026?	Continuous
54.796	Will André Ventura win Portugal's 2026 presidential election?	Binary
54.324	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 15 - Jun 26)	Continuous
54.088	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 15 - Jun 26)	Continuous
54.013	Which theatrical production will win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards?	Multiple Choice
50.110	What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on June 14, 2026?	Continuous
46.976	What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on July 14, 2026?	Continuous
45.793	Will the UN General Assembly adopt a resolution condemning the US operation in Venezuela before February 1, 2026?	Binary
42.976	Will any host nation (USA, Mexico or Canada) reach the semifinals of the 2026 World Cup?	Binary
42.618	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on February 14, 2026?	Continuous
42.011	Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before April 27, 2026?	Binary
40.729	Will Donald Trump say "crypto" or "bitcoin" in his State of the Union address on February 24, 2026?	Binary
40.681	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on June 14, 2026?	Continuous
38.994	Will a ceasefire in the 2026 conflict between Israel and the United States and Iran be announced before March 15, 2026?	Binary
37.056	Will Bitcoin trade above $120,000 before August 1, 2026?	Binary
35.283	How many WSOP bracelets will the 2026 Main Event winner hold at the end of the 2026 WSOP season?	Continuous
35.253	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on April 14, 2026?	Continuous
34.666	[Short fuse] Will a Kenyan win the 2026 Boston marathon?	Binary
32.062	Will the United States Department of Justice indict the Federal Reserve before May 2026?	Binary
31.288	Will gas prices in the US reach a new all-time high before April 1, 2026?	Binary
30.731	Will the UK Parliament approve the target to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 87 per cent by 2040?	Binary
30.029	Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target range before July 30, 2026?	Binary
28.409	Will Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet in person before April 3, 2026?	Binary
27.883	Will the number of manufacturing jobs in the US for February 2026 be above 12.7 million?	Binary
27.824	Which Party will win the 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election?	Multiple Choice
27.048	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on July 14, 2026?	Continuous
26.789	Will Nvidia's revenue for the quarter ending January 25, 2026 exceed Nvidia's guidance by more than 5%?	Binary
25.891	Who will be the largest Republican donor in the 2026 cycle, as of August 1, 2026?	Multiple Choice
25.027	What percentage of ASML's net system sales will be to China in Q4 2025?	Continuous
24.954	Will the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) close above 30 on more than 5 trading days between April 20, 2026 and May 31, 2026?	Binary
23.379	How many points will the Presidents' Trophy winner have at the end of the 2025–2026 NHL season?	Continuous
23.102	Will the US and India finalise a new bilateral trade agreement before August 2026?	Binary
21.751	Will Senator John Cornyn avoid elimination in the first round of the Texas Republican primary?	Binary
21.564	Will any AI model achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before April 1, 2026?	Binary
21.385	How many barrels of crude oil will be in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve on April 30, 2026?	Continuous
20.148	How many software development jobs will be posted on Upwork on July 1, 2026?	Continuous
19.634	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 19 - Jan 30)	Continuous
19.439	Which of these market indexes will perform the best during April 2026?	Multiple Choice
19.032	What will be the combined capex for Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon during the fourth quarter of 2025?	Continuous
18.994	Will any match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup be delayed by more than 30 minutes due to extreme heat?	Binary
18.424	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February 2026, according to the TSA? (Feb 23, 2026-Mar 1, 2026)	Continuous
17.966	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin meet in person before May 1, 2026?	Binary
16.819	How many Iranian projectiles (drones and missiles) will the UAE engage with in the 7-day period March 20-26, 2026?	Continuous
16.474	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q1 FY2027 earnings release? (Revenue)	Continuous
16.111	Will the United States intervene militarily in Venezuela again before May 2026?	Binary
15.990	What will EFAMA report as net inflows to European investment funds in December 2025?	Continuous
15.909	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on May 14, 2026?	Continuous
15.813	Will the United States impose additional sanctions on Russia related to the Ukraine war before March 14, 2026?	Binary
15.360	Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority in the 2026 Japanese general election?	Binary
15.192	What will be the Indian Wholesale Price Index monthly inflation rate in January 2026?	Continuous
15.176	Will the UAE engage with 2 or more additional Iranian projectiles (drones or missiles) before May 1, 2026?	Binary
13.936	Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before May 1, 2026?	Binary
11.965	Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" in his State of the Union address on February 24, 2026?	Binary
11.906	Which Bloc will form the 2026 Danish Government?	Multiple Choice
11.547	Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?	Binary
11.506	What will be the US goods trade balance with China in December 2025?	Continuous
11.118	Who will win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
11.088	What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on May 14, 2026?	Continuous
11.038	Will Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff in the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Binary
10.939	Will any NVIDIA GPUs better than the H200 be allowed to be exported to China before March 14, 2026?	Binary
10.739	Before May 1, 2026, will the United States offer to purchase Greenland from Denmark?	Binary
10.637	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg state election?	Continuous
10.430	Will any AI model achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before June 1, 2026?	Binary
10.425	Who will Donald Trump endorse in the Texas Republican US Senate runoff: John Cornyn or Ken Paxton?	Multiple Choice
10.304	How many US banks will fail from January through April 2026?	Multiple Choice
10.158	Will the United States gain less than 100,000 new nonfarm jobs between December 2025 and February 2026?	Binary
9.729	Will Swiss voters approve the "No to a Switzerland with 10 million" population cap referendum?	Binary
8.520	What will the first reported revenues after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Nvidia)	Continuous
7.989	How many MPs will Reform UK have on May 7, 2026?	Continuous
7.972	Who will win the 2026 Texas Democratic primary for US Senate?	Multiple Choice
7.825	Will there be at least one podium sweep at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games?	Binary
7.287	Who will win the 2026 Candidates Tournament?	Multiple Choice
7.230	How many Italian teams will win their 2025–26 Champions League knockout play-off matchups?	Multiple Choice
6.832	Which NHL team will win the 2026 Stanley Cup?	Multiple Choice
6.513	What will U.S consumer sentiment be in April 2026?	Continuous
6.399	What will Finland score on the 2026 World Happiness Report?	Continuous
6.092	How many Iranian projectiles (drones and missiles) will the UAE engage with in the 7-day period April 3-April 9, 2026?	Continuous
6.080	What percentage of seats will Prosperity win in the 2026 Ethiopian general election?	Continuous
5.767	Will H.R.6644, the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, become law before July 4, 2026?	Binary
5.718	Will Nvidia's stock price reach a new record close in February 2026?	Binary
5.566	Will Jonathan Ross be indicted or charged in the death of Renee Good before July 1, 2026?	Binary
5.313	Will global tensions push New York yellow globes over $10 per sack in April 2026?	Binary
5.078	Will Wagner Moura win the Academy Award for Best Actor at the 2026 Academy Awards?	Binary
4.784	What percentage of US households will watch Super Bowl LX?	Continuous
4.525	What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on May 14, 2026?	Continuous
4.482	What rank will the top bot achieve in the Spring 2026 Metaculus Cup?	Continuous
4.374	What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on June 14, 2026?	Continuous
4.307	When will the 2026 US partial government shutdown end?	Continuous
4.170	Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Omsk)	Binary
4.108	Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Kstovo (Lukoil))	Binary
4.093	Will any political party or coalition acquire a supermajority in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elections?	Binary
4.089	What will be the US monthly core CPI inflation for February 2026?	Multiple Choice
4.046	Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Ryazan)	Binary
3.516	When will Claude Plays Pokemon beat the first Pokémon game? (2026)	Continuous
3.427	Which album will win the Best Traditional Country Album Award at the 2026 Grammys?	Multiple Choice
3.352	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on March 14, 2026?	Continuous
3.280	Will a bot be #1 in the Metaculus 2026 Baseline Leaderboard on the Ides of March 2026?	Binary
3.106	Will Romuald Wadagni win the Benin presidential election in April 2026?	Binary
3.100	Will Iran's Internet not be "heavily filtered/whitelisted" for most users before May 2026?	Binary
3.069	What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on April 14, 2026?	Continuous
3.068	Will July 2026 be the warmest July on record, according to Copernicus?	Binary
2.899	What will be the World Bank monthly price of liquid sulphur (Tampa) for Q3 2026?	Continuous
2.386	Will the U.S. Supreme Court rule in favor of Monsanto in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell?	Binary
2.319	In February 2026, will the weekly amount of finished motor gasoline supplied in the U.S. be highest in the final week of the month?	Binary
2.250	Will the Liberal Party officially nominate Flávio Bolsonaro as its candidate for president of Brazil before August 15, 2026?	Binary
2.192	How concerned will the EU be in March 2026?	Continuous
2.070	Who will win the Tour de France 2026?	Multiple Choice
1.934	How much will Wuthering Heights and Hoppers gross domestically during their opening weekend? (Hoppers)	Continuous
1.429	Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?	Binary
1.402	Which game will win the Grammy for Best Score Soundtrack for Video Games and Other Interactive Media in 2026?	Multiple Choice
1.238	What proportion of SCOTUS decisions issued in Q2 2026 will be authored by a Democrat-appointed Justice?	Continuous
1.228	How many more (or fewer) seats will SDS win compared to GS in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?	Continuous
0.823	Will the U.S. conduct a ground invasion of Iran before May 2026?	Binary
0.333	What will be the day over day percentage change in Bayer's stock price following the Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell decision?	Continuous
0.282	What will be the Chinese model share on Openrouter for the week of April 19, 2026?	Continuous
0.097	What will be the Global Peace Index score for the United States in 2026?	Continuous
0.048	How much in goods will the US export in December 2025?	Continuous
0.003	Will any Individual Neutral Athlete (Russian and Belarusian athletes) win any medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-	How many dissenting votes will there be at the January 28, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting?	Multiple Choice
-	Will U.S. consumer sentiment in March 2026 be higher than in February 2026?	Binary
-	Will Stanford HAI’s 2026 AI Index report show U.S. private AI investment in 2025 at least 12x China’s?	Binary
-	Will Waymo have a service area of 1,200 square miles before July 1, 2026?	Binary
-	Will the June 2026 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment number be greater than it was for May 2026?	Binary
-	Which party’s candidate will win the 2026 Saalekreis Landrat runoff election in Saxony-Anhalt, Germany?	Multiple Choice
-0.020	How many Iranian projectiles (drones and missiles) will the UAE engage with in the 7-day period March 27-April 2, 2026?	Continuous
-0.081	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in March 2026, according to the TSA? (Mar 30–Apr 5, 2026)	Continuous
-0.454	What will US manufacturing construction spending be in December 2025?	Continuous
-0.695	What will be the Global Peace Index score for Iran in 2026?	Continuous
-2.003	What will Alphabet's Q4 2025 constant-currency revenues be in these global regions? (EMEA)	Continuous
-3.854	Will Iran participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Binary
-6.539	What will YoY US electricity inflation be for February 2026?	Continuous
-6.643	Which party will win the second highest number of seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	Multiple Choice
-6.946	Will James M. McDonald be sworn in as US Attorney for the Southern District of New York before August 22, 2026?	Binary
-7.005	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 19 - Jan 30)	Continuous
-7.674	Will Cloudflare experience another critical incident before May 2026?	Binary
-8.174	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Nvidia)	Continuous
-9.269	Will Japan receive more foreign visitors from China than from any other country during January 2026?	Binary
-10.550	On July 8, 2026, will Marine Le Pen be ineligible to run in the 2027 French presidential election?	Binary
-11.099	How many U.S. Supreme Court Justices will vote in favor of Monsanto in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell?	Multiple Choice
-11.867	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 2 - Feb 13)	Continuous
-11.964	Will attacks on Israel cause 5+ casualties or a nationwide shelter order before March 1, 2026?	Binary
-17.089	Will the United States and Iran hold another face-to-face diplomatic meeting before June 6, 2026?	Binary
-18.554	Who will win the Republican Primary for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District?	Multiple Choice
-19.107	Will another U.S. cabinet member leave office before May 2026?	Binary
-19.276	How many software development jobs will be posted on Upwork on June 1, 2026?	Continuous
-20.319	How many gold medals will Australia win at the 2026 Commonwealth Games?	Continuous
-23.021	Will the United States attack Iran before April 2026?	Binary
-27.296	Will Neymar be called up for Brazil in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Binary
-29.265	Will China's reported holdings of U.S. Treasuries be below $675 billion for December 2025?	Binary
-32.489	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 15 - Jun 26)	Continuous
-33.304	Will the U.S. Congress still be operating under a continuing resolution (CR) on March 15, 2026?	Binary
-33.940	Will layoffs.fyi explicity report at least 100 AI industry layoffs between January 12 and March 13, 2026?	Binary
-38.190	Will George Soros be the top Democratic-aligned donor on WaPo's leaderboard with at least 3x the #2 donor as of August 1, 2026?	Binary
-44.029	How much will "Michael" gross domestically during the film's opening weekend?	Continuous
-65.428	What will be the MoM change to UK retail sales volume during January 2026?	Continuous
-65.444	What will be the highest stock price of SpaceX in July 2026?	Continuous
-108.522	How many active US drilling rigs will there be for the week ending July 31, 2026?	Continuous
-172.074	Will Shakira's "Dai Dai" outpeak Shakira's "Waka Waka" on the Billboard Hot 100?	Binary