| 113.839 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 107.988 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 105.808 | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | Continuous |
| 100.963 | When will the D.C. federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (election subversion case) | Continuous |
| 96.726 | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Binary |
| 96.349 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 95.003 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 94.972 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 94.961 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 94.903 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 94.809 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 94.529 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 93.955 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 92.544 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 91.687 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 91.268 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 89.057 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 84.957 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 82.640 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 82.224 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 81.841 | Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023? | Binary |
| 81.794 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| 81.754 | What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election? | Continuous |
| 81.468 | Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| 81.377 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 80.878 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 78.674 | Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026? | Binary |
| 77.893 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 77.363 | Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025? | Binary |
| 76.958 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 76.518 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 75.830 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2026? | Binary |
| 75.188 | Will Bud Light cease production by 2026? | Binary |
| 73.637 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 73.452 | Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026? | Binary |
| 73.415 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 73.196 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 73.002 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 72.795 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 69.899 | Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026? | Binary |
| 69.350 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 69.183 | Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026? | Binary |
| 68.796 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | Binary |
| 68.371 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 67.729 | How many UN member states will formally recognize Taiwan at the end of 2025? | Continuous |
| 67.543 | Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026? | Binary |
| 67.426 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 67.344 | What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022? | Continuous |
| 67.252 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 66.898 | Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025? | Binary |
| 65.512 | What will be the median cost of a visit to space for a private citizen? (2025) | Continuous |
| 64.693 | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
| 64.385 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 64.383 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 64.340 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 64.340 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 64.340 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 64.257 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 64.234 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 63.918 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1) | Binary |
| 63.102 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 62.432 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 62.311 | What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022? | Continuous |
| 61.960 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 61.870 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 61.799 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 61.456 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 61.328 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 58.573 | Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities? | Binary |
| 58.277 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 56.838 | Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026? | Binary |
| 55.907 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2025) | Binary |
| 55.574 | What will OpenAI's estimated Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) be in 2024? | Continuous |
| 55.446 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2) | Binary |
| 55.101 | How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue? | Continuous |
| 54.134 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 53.514 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 52.296 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 50.918 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
| 49.988 | When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human? | Continuous |
| 49.269 | Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026? | Binary |
| 48.612 | Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025? | Binary |
| 46.357 | Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 46.256 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 45.598 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 45.324 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | Binary |
| 44.785 | When will the federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (classified documents case) | Continuous |
| 42.877 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 42.874 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 42.546 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 42.516 | Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025? | Binary |
| 42.304 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 39.848 | If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025? | Binary |
| 39.754 | Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 39.648 | Will 2022 be warmer than 2021? | Binary |
| 39.161 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 39.042 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3) | Binary |
| 38.415 | What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? | Continuous |
| 38.201 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 38.037 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 37.081 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 36.568 | Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023? | Binary |
| 36.255 | Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| 35.818 | Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections? | Binary |
| 32.861 | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | Binary |
| 31.830 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? | Binary |
| 29.565 | Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026? | Binary |
| 29.534 | Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks? | Binary |
| 28.746 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 27.438 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 26.954 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| 25.809 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 25.371 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 24.122 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 23.828 | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Binary |
| 23.624 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| 23.403 | Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match? | Binary |
| 23.191 | When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO? | Continuous |
| 22.988 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 22.842 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
| 22.442 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 21.395 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 21.359 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP) | Binary |
| 21.359 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC) | Binary |
| 20.107 | How many customers will make up the biggest paying customer base of any AI assistant software in 2025? | Continuous |
| 19.256 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 19.068 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 18.758 | Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026? | Binary |
| 17.893 | Will Apple adopt RCS technology for iPhones before 2026? | Binary |
| 16.973 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| 10.938 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 10.769 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
| 8.056 | Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 7.391 | Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024? | Binary |
| 7.196 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 6.756 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 6.273 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| 6.134 | Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026? | Binary |
| 5.959 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
| 5.763 | Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025? | Binary |
| 5.721 | When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space? | Continuous |
| 5.125 | How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime? | Continuous |
| 4.201 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 4.094 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| 3.680 | How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025? | Continuous |
| 3.166 | Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 3.138 | Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024? | Binary |
| 3.031 | Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.574 | How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023? | Continuous |
| 1.239 | Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025? | Binary |
| 1.213 | What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016? | Continuous |
| 0.989 | Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 0.931 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.803 | Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11? | Binary |
| 0.495 | When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring? | Continuous |
| 0.475 | How many estimated excess deaths due to starvation will occur in Ethiopia as a result of the Tigray war? | Continuous |
| 0.214 | When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months? | Continuous |
| 0.063 | What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating? | Continuous |
| 0.001 | What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022? | Continuous |
| - | By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| -0.048 | Will Urbit development be ongoing in 2025? | Binary |
| -0.151 | Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023? | Binary |
| -2.917 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -5.925 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| -6.943 | Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of "Jestyn's" family? | Binary |
| -9.120 | Will Amy Wax no longer have tenure at a top-24 US university before 2026? | Binary |
| -9.658 | Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026? | Binary |
| -11.040 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027? | Binary |
| -11.929 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -12.384 | What will China’s GDP be in 2023? | Continuous |
| -13.807 | Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025? | Binary |
| -16.888 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| -18.021 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| -18.143 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Binary |
| -22.535 | Will China operate at least one military base in a BRICS country before 2026? | Binary |
| -28.074 | Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025? | Binary |
| -28.966 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| -31.225 | What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -36.007 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| -37.299 | Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026? | Binary |
| -43.838 | What will be the share of people using the internet in Africa in 2025? | Continuous |
| -48.782 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -62.271 | Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026? | Binary |
| -63.148 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| -66.904 | Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026? | Binary |
| -67.561 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -70.161 | Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026? | Binary |
| -89.287 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Starship) | Continuous |
| -137.683 | Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| -145.291 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -170.022 | When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit? | Continuous |
| -202.977 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -306.376 | Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? | Binary |