DaAdCh

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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7743	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
105.030	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
103.594	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
98.479	Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?	Binary
97.643	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
97.441	Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026?	Binary
96.520	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2026?	Binary
95.254	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Patient Focus)	Binary
94.836	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Green)	Binary
94.836	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Christian Democratic)	Binary
94.696	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Red Party)	Binary
92.643	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
91.595	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
91.272	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
90.550	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
89.186	Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
88.294	Will Bud Light cease production by 2026?	Binary
88.090	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
87.994	Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?	Binary
87.408	Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?	Binary
86.874	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
86.874	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
86.681	Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
86.186	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?	Binary
85.077	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
84.882	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
84.506	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
84.302	Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?	Binary
83.095	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
83.095	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
82.688	What will be the average inflation in Turkey from 2022 to 2024 (inclusive)?	Continuous
81.893	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
81.805	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
81.689	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
81.659	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
79.587	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
78.920	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
78.646	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
78.508	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
78.087	Will the next president of Ecuador remain in office through the end of their term?	Binary
77.955	Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?	Binary
77.706	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Green)	Binary
77.429	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
77.226	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
76.641	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
76.190	What will the end of year unemployment rate in South Africa be, according to the Q4 QLFS report, in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
75.894	Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?	Binary
75.579	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
74.965	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
74.957	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
73.774	Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?	Binary
73.023	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
72.789	Will Walmart stores in the United States return to 24-hour service before 2026?	Binary
71.216	How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?	Continuous
69.552	Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?	Binary
69.271	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
69.190	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
69.013	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
68.897	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
68.491	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
68.182	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
68.077	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
67.560	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?	Binary
66.645	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
66.300	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Die Linke)	Binary
66.300	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD)	Binary
66.300	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP)	Binary
65.084	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
64.896	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
64.557	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
64.461	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Grüne)	Binary
63.743	Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
63.328	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
62.031	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
62.031	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
62.031	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
62.031	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
62.031	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
62.031	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
62.030	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
60.041	What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2?	Continuous
59.291	Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?	Binary
59.014	Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?	Binary
58.536	When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
57.859	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
57.612	When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US?	Continuous
57.049	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
56.950	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
55.725	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
55.508	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
54.892	Will there be a successful coup in Cameroon before 2026?	Binary
54.556	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
53.137	How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?	Continuous
52.106	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
51.036	How many deaths due to monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?	Continuous
50.251	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
48.130	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
47.213	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
47.126	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
46.950	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
46.372	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Centre)	Binary
46.372	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Liberal)	Binary
45.682	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Socialist Left)	Binary
44.657	Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025?	Binary
44.053	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
42.341	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
42.327	Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
42.267	Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?	Binary
42.243	Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?	Binary
41.554	How many countries will be in OPEC on December 31, 2025?	Continuous
40.558	Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?	Binary
40.376	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
40.325	Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?	Binary
38.854	What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report?	Continuous
38.182	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
38.078	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
38.078	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
37.851	Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?	Binary
37.598	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
37.580	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
37.580	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
37.157	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
36.152	Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election?	Binary
35.915	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
35.730	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
34.853	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Bloc Québécois)	Binary
34.853	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (People's)	Binary
34.253	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
34.069	What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022?	Continuous
34.046	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
33.699	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
33.189	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
31.061	What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
30.663	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
30.081	In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
28.546	What will the US life expectancy be in 2023?	Continuous
28.075	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
27.975	What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?	Continuous
27.722	Will Josh Frydenberg re-enter Australian parliament before the next general election?	Binary
26.672	Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?	Binary
26.631	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
26.445	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
26.270	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
25.990	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Neutron)	Continuous
25.632	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
25.478	Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
24.971	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
23.817	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
23.789	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
23.447	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
23.174	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
22.137	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (SPD)	Binary
21.446	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
21.385	Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections?	Binary
20.878	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (CDU/CSU)	Binary
20.775	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
20.343	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
20.063	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Ariane 6)	Continuous
19.412	Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?	Binary
19.095	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
18.951	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
18.677	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
18.351	What will be Ukraine's score in The Democracy Index in 2024?	Continuous
18.333	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2024)	Continuous
17.345	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
16.908	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP)	Binary
16.908	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC)	Binary
16.389	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (New Democratic)	Binary
15.878	If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?	Binary
15.606	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
15.374	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
14.762	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
14.534	How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
14.093	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?	Binary
13.586	Will China operate at least one military base in a BRICS country before 2026?	Binary
13.127	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn)	Continuous
13.106	Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?	Binary
13.059	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
12.046	How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024?	Continuous
10.201	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
10.163	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
10.040	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
9.808	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
9.213	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?	Binary
8.944	What will the world population be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
8.686	How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
8.452	Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?	Binary
7.964	How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024?	Continuous
7.701	Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?	Binary
7.403	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
7.371	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
7.191	When will the federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (classified documents case)	Continuous
6.758	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
6.387	What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
6.363	When will the D.C. federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (election subversion case)	Continuous
6.274	Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026?	Binary
6.230	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
6.206	What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
6.051	Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?	Binary
5.952	Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?	Binary
5.831	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
5.769	What will productivity be in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
5.701	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
5.695	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
5.496	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (SDLP)	Continuous
5.313	When will the next UK general election take place?	Continuous
5.213	Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?	Binary
5.204	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club)	Binary
5.201	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona)	Binary
5.200	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club)	Binary
5.181	What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
5.133	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys)	Binary
5.132	When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?	Continuous
5.001	What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
4.978	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
4.861	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami)	Binary
4.726	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
4.717	What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
4.717	Will Amy Wax no longer have tenure at a top-24 US university before 2026?	Binary
4.677	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
4.576	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Alliance)	Continuous
4.525	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Progress)	Binary
4.490	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)	Binary
4.279	Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026?	Binary
4.180	Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election?	Binary
4.145	What will China’s GDP be in 2023?	Continuous
4.125	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United States)	Binary
4.104	Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?	Binary
4.047	Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026?	Binary
3.990	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Conservative)	Binary
3.930	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Sinn Féin)	Continuous
3.896	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United Kingdom)	Binary
3.884	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
3.870	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2025)	Continuous
3.852	What will be the global rate of homicide deaths per 100,000 people in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
3.677	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Trabucco)	Binary
3.655	Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?	Binary
3.586	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
3.535	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
3.431	What will the annual real GDP growth rate be in the eurozone in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
3.426	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
3.355	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (DUP)	Continuous
3.065	What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
2.859	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
2.690	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Plaid Cymru)	Continuous
2.681	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
2.642	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
2.599	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
2.546	How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
2.520	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
2.476	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Greens)	Continuous
2.123	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
2.075	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
2.036	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
2.013	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
1.973	In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?	Continuous
1.892	What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
1.770	What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
1.765	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
1.372	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Terran R)	Continuous
1.367	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2024)	Continuous
0.844	Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?	Binary
0.547	Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?	Binary
0.534	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Reform)	Continuous
0.493	Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?	Binary
0.378	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (October 1, 2025)	Continuous
0.375	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur)	Continuous
0.329	Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024?	Binary
0.209	What will be the lowest monthly value for US total capacity utilization in 2023?	Continuous
0.147	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
0.122	Will the gray wolf be relisted as Threatened or Endangered by the US before 2030?	Binary
0.121	What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?	Continuous
0.088	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
0.087	How many Japanese Air Force responses to Chinese military threats there will be by 2024?	Continuous
0.080	When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?	Continuous
0.019	How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime?	Continuous
0.008	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
0.008	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
0.008	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses)	Binary
0.008	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)	Binary
0.008	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing)	Binary
0.008	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny some entities)	Binary
-	BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?	Binary
-	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
-	Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?	Binary
-	Will Urbit development be ongoing in 2025?	Binary
-	Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?	Binary
-	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Labour)	Binary
-0.003	When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?	Continuous
-0.133	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-0.572	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
-0.669	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-0.842	Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?	Binary
-2.255	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
-5.478	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027?	Binary
-6.557	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-7.877	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-8.341	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
-9.057	What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-13.069	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Conservative)	Binary
-14.422	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
-16.630	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Liberal)	Binary
-17.248	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
-17.883	Will Apple adopt RCS technology for iPhones before 2026?	Binary
-19.735	Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
-24.226	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
-29.880	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
-30.510	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
-34.496	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-42.775	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Starship)	Continuous
-55.189	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-58.964	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-68.545	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-69.708	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
-90.342	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-94.612	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-96.724	Will Labor win the seat of Sturt in the next Australian Federal Election?	Binary
-109.926	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
-113.116	Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?	Binary
-114.246	What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?	Continuous
-114.381	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-163.304	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?	Binary
-171.796	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous
-173.974	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
-175.479	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
-203.591	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary