norick

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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10.4k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
123.785	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX)	Continuous
108.786	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX)	Continuous
98.469	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
98.448	By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025?	Continuous
98.346	Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?	Binary
98.203	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
97.830	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
97.537	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
95.778	Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?	Binary
95.530	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
95.478	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
94.204	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E)	Binary
94.096	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
93.507	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
92.982	Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?	Binary
92.551	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
91.873	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
91.309	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
90.916	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
89.690	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
89.395	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
89.060	Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?	Binary
87.673	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E))	Binary
87.486	[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?	Binary
86.885	Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections?	Binary
86.622	How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2?	Continuous
86.441	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela?	Multiple Choice
86.034	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
84.898	Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
84.676	Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?	Binary
84.657	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024)	Binary
84.600	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
84.467	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
84.307	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
84.041	On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Multiple Choice
83.891	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
83.891	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden)	Binary
83.891	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
83.891	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
83.891	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth)	Binary
83.890	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar)	Binary
83.783	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
83.772	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet)	Binary
83.422	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
83.283	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
83.108	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
83.070	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
83.066	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson)	Binary
83.066	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo)	Binary
83.031	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
83.024	Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?	Binary
82.912	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
82.743	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
82.713	Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?	Binary
81.871	Who will win the Tour de France 2024?	Multiple Choice
81.836	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
81.465	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
81.131	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper)	Binary
80.504	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?	Binary
80.396	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
79.331	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly)	Binary
78.094	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear)	Binary
78.067	Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?	Binary
77.907	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
77.423	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters)	Binary
77.376	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?	Binary
77.353	Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?	Binary
76.873	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
76.740	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
76.401	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro)	Binary
75.949	Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?	Binary
75.559	Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024?	Binary
74.406	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
73.850	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
73.705	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
73.541	[Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?	Binary
73.184	Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024?	Binary
73.165	How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Multiple Choice
72.145	Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?	Binary
71.838	Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?	Binary
71.692	Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?	Binary
71.479	What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024?	Multiple Choice
71.339	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
71.245	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?	Binary
70.916	Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024?	Binary
70.757	Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?	Binary
70.384	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
70.193	Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025?	Binary
69.637	Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024?	Multiple Choice
69.377	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
68.340	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024?	Continuous
67.669	Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?	Binary
66.683	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
66.130	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
65.384	What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024?	Continuous
65.178	Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
64.881	Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?	Binary
64.127	Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?	Binary
63.512	Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?	Binary
62.978	Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?	Binary
62.862	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
61.477	Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?	Binary
61.403	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
61.128	Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024?	Multiple Choice
61.074	[Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid?	Binary
60.513	Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024?	Binary
59.849	Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?	Multiple Choice
59.668	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
58.229	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
58.163	What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024?	Continuous
58.015	Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024?	Multiple Choice
57.693	Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting?	Multiple Choice
57.603	Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?	Binary
57.080	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
55.725	What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024?	Continuous
55.171	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
55.009	How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
54.924	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
54.860	Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
54.364	What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Continuous
52.776	Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term?	Binary
52.053	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Continuous
50.983	Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election?	Binary
48.995	Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Multiple Choice
48.779	What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary?	Continuous
48.628	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024?	Binary
48.299	When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers?	Continuous
47.853	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Continuous
47.794	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
45.649	For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl?	Continuous
44.975	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
44.884	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
44.822	Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?	Binary
44.579	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E))	Binary
43.988	How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024?	Multiple Choice
43.254	Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth?	Multiple Choice
43.199	Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
42.895	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
42.885	What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024?	Continuous
41.843	Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?	Binary
41.268	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
41.110	Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?	Binary
40.492	Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games?	Binary
40.266	Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Multiple Choice
40.167	Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?	Binary
39.370	Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election?	Binary
39.179	How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024?	Continuous
39.076	Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
38.512	How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52?	Continuous
36.839	Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?	Binary
36.672	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024)	Binary
36.603	[Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election?	Binary
36.487	What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024?	Continuous
36.137	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
34.286	Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?	Binary
34.203	What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024?	Continuous
34.195	On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap?	Binary
34.053	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz)	Binary
33.276	Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?	Binary
33.092	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
32.908	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?	Binary
32.889	What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024?	Continuous
32.085	Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest?	Multiple Choice
31.811	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
31.733	What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024?	Continuous
31.206	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
30.458	Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024?	Binary
30.195	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
30.107	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
30.027	Will Masoud Pezeshkian win the 2024 Iranian Presidential election?	Binary
30.023	When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
29.881	Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025?	Binary
29.299	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (7 or more)	Binary
29.299	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (6)	Binary
28.744	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
28.474	What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA?	Continuous
28.332	At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal?	Binary
27.336	What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024?	Continuous
26.448	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (5)	Binary
26.282	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
26.138	Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024?	Binary
25.800	What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024?	Continuous
25.493	Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final?	Multiple Choice
25.218	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?	Binary
24.437	Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?	Binary
24.085	Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly?	Binary
23.341	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?	Binary
22.406	What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024?	Multiple Choice
21.893	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
21.723	Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024?	Binary
20.967	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
20.880	What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024?	Continuous
20.826	Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?	Binary
20.734	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30)	Continuous
20.639	Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?	Binary
20.559	Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran?	Binary
18.549	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
18.345	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
17.336	Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?	Binary
17.204	On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX?	Continuous
16.287	(closed) Which country will win UEFA Euro 2024?	Multiple Choice
16.113	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
15.673	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
14.165	Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025?	Binary
13.841	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?	Binary
13.787	How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024?	Continuous
13.664	By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting?	Multiple Choice
13.181	How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024?	Multiple Choice
13.012	Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024?	Binary
12.963	Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections?	Multiple Choice
12.920	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
12.555	When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
12.543	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (4)	Binary
10.306	Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?	Binary
9.716	How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election?	Continuous
9.219	How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?	Continuous
8.822	Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?	Binary
8.295	What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024?	Multiple Choice
7.960	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E))	Binary
7.424	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
7.042	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden) (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
5.501	Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?	Binary
5.040	At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?	Binary
4.940	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
4.776	Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025?	Binary
4.546	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15)	Continuous
3.778	Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?	Binary
3.536	Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?	Binary
2.975	Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
1.879	How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Multiple Choice
1.555	[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?	Binary
1.090	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024?	Binary
1.073	RFK Jr. to drop out by Oct 22? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)	Binary
0.795	Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025?	Binary
0.362	Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024?	Binary
0.214	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024?	Binary
0.128	How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024?	Multiple Choice
-0.910	What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs?	Continuous
-1.153	When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers?	Continuous
-2.217	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-3.676	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E))	Binary
-4.363	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (3)	Binary
-5.632	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
-6.652	Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-8.154	Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?	Binary
-9.291	Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024?	Binary
-9.932	Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?	Binary
-11.398	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
-13.675	Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-16.202	Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?	Binary
-22.664	Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?	Binary
-24.817	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-25.133	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
-25.205	Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?	Binary
-25.426	After the end of the DNC, what will be Kamala Harris's probability of winning the US 2024 presidential election, as measured and displayed by Metaculus?	Multiple Choice
-25.949	Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?	Binary
-26.603	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024?	Continuous
-27.138	What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024?	Continuous
-28.594	What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD?	Continuous
-29.131	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
-29.416	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-30.950	Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Multiple Choice
-34.287	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
-38.190	How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024?	Continuous
-46.513	Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff?	Binary
-52.433	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary
-55.384	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-56.744	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024?	Continuous
-62.077	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-63.178	Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?	Binary
-65.324	How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024?	Continuous
-66.423	Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech?	Binary
-69.842	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-70.758	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024?	Continuous
-71.876	Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-97.353	Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?	Binary
-104.030	Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason?	Binary
-130.794	Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?	Binary
-155.445	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
-285.966	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary