benshindel

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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7173	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
96.278	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
96.194	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
95.429	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
95.318	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
95.156	Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?	Binary
94.895	By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025?	Continuous
94.088	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
92.585	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
91.090	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
90.551	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
90.048	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
89.281	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
89.146	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
88.150	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
87.933	On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Multiple Choice
87.516	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
87.414	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
86.941	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
86.165	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
85.495	Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?	Binary
85.473	Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025?	Binary
85.451	[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?	Binary
85.374	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
85.217	Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?	Binary
85.028	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
84.614	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
83.197	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden)	Binary
83.197	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth)	Binary
83.197	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet)	Binary
83.197	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson)	Binary
83.195	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
83.192	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
83.192	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo)	Binary
83.188	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
83.176	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
83.176	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar)	Binary
83.140	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
83.116	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
82.841	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
82.750	Who will win the Tour de France 2024?	Multiple Choice
82.525	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
82.213	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper)	Binary
82.039	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear)	Binary
81.776	How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024?	Continuous
81.467	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
81.153	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
79.989	Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?	Multiple Choice
79.782	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?	Binary
79.772	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly)	Binary
79.239	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
78.741	Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?	Binary
78.557	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters)	Binary
78.289	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
78.048	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
77.358	Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?	Binary
77.222	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
77.160	What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024?	Multiple Choice
76.892	Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games?	Binary
76.880	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
76.777	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
75.349	Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?	Binary
74.978	How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Multiple Choice
74.593	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
74.569	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
74.116	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
72.927	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
72.855	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?	Binary
72.432	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro)	Binary
71.800	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
71.156	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
70.997	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
70.406	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
70.354	Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?	Binary
69.146	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
67.204	Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?	Binary
67.014	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
66.027	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
65.967	Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Multiple Choice
65.444	What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Continuous
64.213	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Continuous
60.053	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
58.952	What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024?	Continuous
58.556	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
54.981	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
54.032	Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?	Binary
52.954	What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024?	Continuous
52.656	Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?	Binary
52.290	Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Multiple Choice
51.104	Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?	Binary
50.347	How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
49.836	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
48.187	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz)	Binary
46.435	Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship?	Multiple Choice
41.768	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Continuous
41.680	What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024?	Continuous
40.358	Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?	Binary
40.194	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
39.761	[Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election?	Binary
39.186	What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA?	Continuous
39.118	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
35.680	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
35.350	What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024?	Continuous
35.030	How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Multiple Choice
34.098	How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024?	Multiple Choice
33.050	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
31.273	How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?	Multiple Choice
30.380	Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections?	Multiple Choice
29.620	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
29.602	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30)	Continuous
28.856	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15)	Continuous
27.999	US Federal Min Wage Increase before 2025 (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
27.608	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
27.296	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
26.859	How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024?	Multiple Choice
26.677	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
25.375	How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52?	Continuous
24.993	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
22.431	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
22.085	What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
17.236	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
15.966	What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024?	Multiple Choice
14.040	Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
11.956	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
10.528	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
10.475	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
9.651	When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
9.620	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?	Binary
9.584	How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?	Continuous
8.854	How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
8.110	Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?	Binary
7.237	How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024?	Multiple Choice
5.657	2024 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee? (Josh Shapiro) (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
4.200	Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025?	Binary
2.888	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
0.989	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
0.888	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024?	Continuous
-	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Joe Biden) (No) → GOP Control of US Senate in 2025	Binary
-	Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?	Binary
-	2024 US election considered fraudulent? (No) → Faithless electors in US 2024 Election?	Binary
-0.142	Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.583	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
-1.768	Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025?	Binary
-2.185	Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? (Yes) → What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
-2.609	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
-2.663	What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024?	Continuous
-2.876	By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting?	Multiple Choice
-3.268	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
-3.693	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden) (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-6.716	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
-8.425	Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-12.703	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-17.705	What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?	Multiple Choice
-18.072	Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?	Binary
-23.012	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-25.320	Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Multiple Choice
-38.801	Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?	Binary
-52.777	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-56.786	2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote? (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-59.876	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
-60.976	Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech?	Binary
-62.080	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-72.777	Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?	Binary
-77.397	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
-151.431	Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?	Binary
-229.075	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary