aquaterrific

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2887	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
111.923	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
97.426	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
95.989	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
91.491	What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025?	Continuous
90.113	When will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed?	Continuous
89.278	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
88.670	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
88.581	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
87.286	Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?	Binary
87.255	Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?	Binary
86.911	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
85.999	Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?	Binary
84.006	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
81.441	Will the world's five largest companies at the end of 2025 be in the tech sector?	Binary
80.845	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
79.661	Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
78.955	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
77.485	Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?	Multiple Choice
76.419	Will China and India ratify a bilateral border treaty before the end of 2025?	Binary
75.918	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
73.050	Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?	Binary
72.271	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
70.989	Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?	Binary
69.771	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
69.539	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
69.326	Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
67.893	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
66.686	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
64.493	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
61.933	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
61.266	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
60.783	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
59.808	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
59.709	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
58.994	Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025?	Binary
58.885	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
58.070	Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?	Binary
57.803	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
57.338	Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
56.818	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
55.802	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
53.361	How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?	Multiple Choice
52.263	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
52.183	What will be the total domestic box office in the US & Canada during 2025?	Continuous
51.943	Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?	Binary
49.979	Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?	Binary
49.313	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
46.752	What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories?	Continuous
46.410	Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?	Binary
45.722	Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before November 1, 2025?	Binary
45.382	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
45.217	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
44.909	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
44.763	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
44.651	What will be the global year-over-year change in seated diners reported by OpenTable for the week ending January 1, 2026?	Continuous
43.718	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
43.589	Which race will the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Champion be known after?	Multiple Choice
43.177	Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?	Binary
43.057	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
41.540	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
41.398	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
41.281	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Men)	Continuous
39.617	How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?	Continuous
39.535	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
38.839	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
38.572	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
38.158	Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?	Binary
38.014	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
37.723	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
36.790	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
36.560	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
36.380	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
36.182	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
34.905	Which team will win the 2025 League of Legends World Championship?	Multiple Choice
33.512	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
33.460	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
33.146	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
32.759	Who will win the Texas 18th district special election?	Multiple Choice
31.134	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
30.529	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
30.122	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
29.013	What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?	Continuous
28.434	What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025?	Multiple Choice
28.368	Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?	Binary
27.910	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
27.763	Will Nicholas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before January 1, 2026?	Binary
27.445	What will be the market price of the most expensive Pokémon card from the Mega Evolution expansion on November 26th?	Continuous
26.127	What will be the longest field goal of the 2025 NFL season?	Continuous
23.338	[Short fuse] Who will win the 2025 NBA Cup?	Multiple Choice
22.798	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
22.540	How many executive orders will Donald Trump sign in February and March 2025?	Continuous
22.422	What will be the fastest average solving time of the 3x3x3 Rubik's Cube during November 2025?	Continuous
21.956	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
21.743	How many Volcanoes will be erupting at the end of 2025?	Continuous
21.020	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Women)	Continuous
20.720	How many days of snow will New York City see between December 11, 2025 and January 10, 2026?	Multiple Choice
19.697	What will be the highest price of Bitcoin in 2025?	Continuous
19.435	Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?	Binary
18.872	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
18.793	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
17.175	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
17.041	How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?	Continuous
15.789	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
15.653	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
14.576	What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
13.951	Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?	Binary
13.930	How many cases will be confirmed in the Texas measles outbreak before April 7, 2025?	Continuous
13.765	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
12.276	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
10.331	Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?	Binary
10.259	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
10.032	Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?	Binary
9.935	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
8.947	How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?	Multiple Choice
8.773	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
8.028	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
7.613	How many runs will be scored in the 2025 World Series?	Continuous
6.549	What will be the percentage of zero-emission cars among Norwegian new car registrations during November 2025?	Continuous
5.941	When will Adelita Grijalva be sworn in?	Continuous
5.914	What will be the the global surface air temperature on April 1, 2025?	Continuous
4.947	Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?	Binary
3.713	What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX?	Continuous
3.434	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
3.024	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
2.784	Which country will host the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP 31) in 2026?	Multiple Choice
2.272	Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?	Binary
2.111	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
1.858	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
0.528	What will happen next with respect to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act's $7,500 tax credit for US individuals who purchase an EV (30D)?	Multiple Choice
0.437	Will any top US official visit Greenland in 2025?	Binary
0.407	What will be the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility estimate of CPI inflation for 2025 as of March 2025?	Multiple Choice
-1.087	How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025?	Continuous
-1.366	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
-3.383	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
-3.397	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
-4.343	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
-4.598	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
-5.292	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
-5.714	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
-6.928	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
-8.193	Will Blue Origin's "Never Tell Me The Odds" launch before 2026 and successfully land?	Binary
-8.388	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
-9.373	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
-9.492	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
-13.148	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
-18.610	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
-22.633	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
-23.814	Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-24.641	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
-26.611	What will the total number of tokens launched on the site pump.fun be, as of March 31, 2025?	Continuous
-28.276	Who will win Big Brother 27 (US)?	Multiple Choice
-31.002	What color will the 2026 Pantone Color of the Year be?	Multiple Choice
-32.717	What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-37.570	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
-39.395	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
-41.892	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
-46.852	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
-48.827	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
-59.768	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
-69.540	Will there be another deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more fatalities, before 2026?	Binary
-81.545	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-84.210	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
-85.191	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
-85.745	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-99.285	Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-134.318	What will be the percentage increase for the minimum wage in Colombia for 2026?	Continuous
-141.889	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-152.478	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
-156.918	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
-194.137	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-227.518	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Dutch general election?	Multiple Choice
-239.632	Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?	Binary
-449.834	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary