evergreenemily

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2023-24

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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9135	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
137.691	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump)	Continuous
120.907	What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2024)	Continuous
99.697	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
99.543	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
99.374	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
99.247	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump)	Binary
99.247	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie)	Binary
99.222	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
99.139	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
99.121	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds)	Binary
99.088	Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont?	Binary
98.985	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
98.881	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump)	Binary
98.859	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence)	Binary
98.754	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin)	Binary
98.643	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
98.590	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
98.582	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst)	Binary
98.397	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D))	Binary
98.263	Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?	Binary
98.182	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
98.024	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson)	Binary
97.989	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds)	Binary
97.876	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
97.581	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
97.576	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?	Binary
97.490	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024)	Binary
96.824	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace)	Binary
96.753	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
96.696	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Binary
96.349	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
96.334	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
96.301	Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024?	Binary
96.200	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
96.041	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
95.650	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
95.512	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
95.497	Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2024)	Binary
95.457	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D))	Binary
95.423	Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday?	Multiple Choice
95.090	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd)	Binary
94.462	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
94.320	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott)	Binary
93.477	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez)	Binary
93.328	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D))	Binary
93.248	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?	Binary
93.156	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
93.015	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
92.668	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
92.565	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
92.541	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
92.488	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)	Binary
92.298	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
92.288	Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?	Binary
92.042	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant)	Binary
91.993	Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election?	Binary
91.734	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D))	Binary
91.574	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D))	Binary
90.832	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida)	Binary
89.912	If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?	Binary
89.745	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake)	Binary
89.641	Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?	Binary
89.632	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota)	Binary
89.004	What will be the maximum percent of Gallup Coronavirus Pandemic polls respondents who say the pandemic is getting a lot worse in 2023 and 2024?	Continuous
88.936	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
88.856	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
87.747	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D))	Binary
87.747	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D))	Binary
87.466	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio)	Binary
87.412	Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?	Binary
86.131	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa)	Binary
85.897	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?	Binary
85.888	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas)	Binary
84.347	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban)	Binary
84.055	Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?	Binary
84.038	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire)	Binary
83.703	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder)	Binary
83.703	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
83.377	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government)	Binary
82.959	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska)	Binary
82.916	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
82.320	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem)	Binary
81.972	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power)	Binary
80.713	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D))	Binary
80.116	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Andy Kim (D))	Binary
78.925	What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
78.025	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
77.381	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
76.153	Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump)	Binary
74.554	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico)	Binary
72.667	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
72.426	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
72.426	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
72.426	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
72.077	Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?	Binary
70.860	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia)	Binary
70.746	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?	Binary
68.433	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah)	Binary
68.180	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas)	Binary
67.662	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
67.637	Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?	Binary
67.093	Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?	Binary
66.376	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado)	Binary
64.360	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI)	Binary
64.360	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
64.360	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic)	Binary
63.775	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide))	Binary
61.506	Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?	Binary
61.208	Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?	Binary
59.657	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
59.158	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik)	Binary
58.184	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney)	Binary
57.231	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
55.512	Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023?	Binary
55.299	Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024?	Binary
51.824	How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"?	Continuous
50.557	How many Palestinian fatalities in the West Bank will be caused by Israeli forces before July 1, 2024?	Continuous
50.283	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt)	Binary
49.126	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio)	Binary
48.818	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
48.674	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson)	Binary
48.344	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
46.228	Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?	Binary
40.993	Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?	Binary
40.755	Will the Republican Party retain California's 20th District in the 2024 special election?	Binary
39.844	What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024?	Continuous
39.084	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
35.890	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Conservative and Unionist Party)	Continuous
35.589	Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election?	Binary
34.991	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrats)	Continuous
32.852	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey)	Binary
31.544	5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
27.394	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
26.231	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
25.471	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
25.272	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
24.606	Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025?	Binary
22.374	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
22.247	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York)	Binary
21.115	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD))	Binary
18.738	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
18.332	Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?	Binary
17.442	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
17.385	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Nikki Haley)	Continuous
17.317	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD))	Binary
13.321	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel)	Binary
12.671	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD))	Binary
12.351	Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?	Binary
11.715	Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent?	Binary
10.691	Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024?	Binary
9.087	What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2023)	Continuous
6.191	Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024?	Binary
6.037	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Asa Hutchinson)	Continuous
5.563	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Ron DeSantis)	Continuous
4.077	Will Threads support ActivityPub before 2025?	Binary
3.976	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Continuous
2.765	Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election?	Binary
2.622	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Reform UK)	Continuous
1.722	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada)	Binary
1.657	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes)	Binary
1.445	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes)	Binary
0.874	When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users?	Continuous
0.679	Hunter Biden Indicted by Nov 5, 2024? (Yes) → Joe Biden Impeached by House?	Binary
0.622	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Chris Christie)	Continuous
-	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin)	Binary
-1.790	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No)	Binary
-3.580	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No)	Binary
-4.314	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
-4.798	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
-5.807	What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024?	Continuous
-6.956	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
-7.178	Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-8.275	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Green Party of England and Wales)	Continuous
-12.137	What will be the water level of Lake Mead (in feet) at the end of July of the following years? (2024)	Continuous
-13.919	When will US government 10-year bond yields next exceed 2-year bond yields?	Continuous
-16.753	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Labour Party)	Continuous
-17.036	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona)	Binary
-21.363	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
-27.188	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
-34.105	When will the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Interagency Technical Working Group on Race and Ethnicity Standards complete revisions to Statistical Policy Directive No. 15 (SPD 15)?	Continuous
-34.973	Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025?	Binary
-41.657	Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?	Binary
-49.719	Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?	Binary
-54.173	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan)	Binary
-56.351	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested)	Binary
-56.693	Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
-73.025	What percentage of the popular vote will the African National Congress get in the 2024 South African general election?	Continuous
-87.570	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
-92.261	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
-125.137	When will Israel lift the Gaza Strip total blockade on four essential goods?	Continuous
-129.144	In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?	Binary
-164.484	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
-174.735	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D))	Binary
-183.658	How many zero emission light vehicles will be available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) in the United States for the following model years? (2024)	Continuous
-224.319	Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India?	Binary
-233.124	Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary