| 106.701 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Terran R) | Continuous |
| 78.840 | Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026? | Binary |
| 78.840 | Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026? | Binary |
| 77.012 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Die Linke) | Binary |
| 71.794 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 68.985 | Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026? | Binary |
| 66.267 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP) | Binary |
| 66.267 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD) | Binary |
| 64.048 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2025) | Binary |
| 61.097 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 61.097 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 58.815 | How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025? | Continuous |
| 57.605 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 54.710 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 53.951 | How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2026? | Continuous |
| 47.465 | Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| 45.712 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (SPD) | Binary |
| 43.891 | What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 43.182 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 42.388 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 41.112 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 41.112 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 41.112 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 41.112 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 41.112 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 41.112 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 40.633 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 39.954 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 39.290 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 39.190 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 39.190 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 38.945 | Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024? | Binary |
| 37.934 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Grüne) | Binary |
| 37.909 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 37.496 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 37.174 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 36.734 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 36.370 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 35.001 | How many customers will make up the biggest paying customer base of any AI assistant software in 2025? | Continuous |
| 34.191 | How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024? | Continuous |
| 33.200 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 28.283 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 28.283 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 28.283 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 28.283 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 28.283 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 28.283 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 28.283 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 28.043 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 27.801 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 26.848 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 26.774 | When will the next UK general election take place? | Continuous |
| 25.890 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 24.934 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 24.857 | When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify? | Continuous |
| 23.690 | When will the UK hold its next general election? | Continuous |
| 23.617 | In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
| 23.437 | Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities? | Binary |
| 22.798 | In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP? | Continuous |
| 21.234 | What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 20.713 | What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 20.638 | When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human? | Continuous |
| 18.136 | Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025? | Binary |
| 17.238 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 16.529 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 16.529 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 16.233 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 16.232 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 15.669 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Ariane 6) | Continuous |
| 15.565 | Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections? | Binary |
| 14.679 | Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025? | Binary |
| 14.446 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 14.237 | Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025? | Binary |
| 13.970 | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | Binary |
| 13.128 | By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty? | Binary |
| 13.078 | What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022? | Continuous |
| 12.893 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 12.336 | How many Japanese Air Force responses to Chinese military threats there will be by 2024? | Continuous |
| 12.000 | Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025? | Binary |
| 11.804 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour)) | Binary |
| 11.572 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 11.534 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 11.300 | Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025? | Binary |
| 11.116 | Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025? | Binary |
| 10.984 | Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025? | Binary |
| 10.892 | Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025? | Binary |
| 10.871 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
| 10.725 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 9.986 | Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026? | Binary |
| 9.986 | Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 9.766 | Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 8.974 | Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026? | Binary |
| 8.795 | How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023? | Continuous |
| 7.054 | Will the next president of Ecuador remain in office through the end of their term? | Binary |
| 7.039 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| 6.817 | Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026? | Binary |
| 6.409 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 6.187 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 5.760 | How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 5.602 | Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025? | Binary |
| 5.309 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 5.061 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona) | Binary |
| 5.061 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami) | Binary |
| 5.061 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club) | Binary |
| 5.061 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys) | Binary |
| 5.061 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club) | Binary |
| 4.898 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 4.703 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | Binary |
| 3.979 | If Labor wins the next Australian election, what will the Reserve Bank's cash rate target be in June 2025? | Continuous |
| 3.637 | Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024? | Binary |
| 3.466 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 3.415 | Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks? | Binary |
| 3.380 | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Binary |
| 3.232 | Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| 3.231 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 3.164 | Will Sam Altman Use Microsoft Teams before 2026? | Binary |
| 3.090 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| 3.070 | What will China’s GDP be in 2023? | Continuous |
| 3.066 | Will Josh Frydenberg re-enter Australian parliament before the next general election? | Binary |
| 2.934 | How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022? | Continuous |
| 2.823 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 2.823 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| 2.823 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 2.514 | Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026? | Binary |
| 2.499 | How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 2.236 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
| 2.233 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (CDU/CSU) | Binary |
| 2.194 | How many spacecraft will land on the moon from 2022 through 2025? | Continuous |
| 2.060 | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.826 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Binary |
| 1.825 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP) | Binary |
| 1.825 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC) | Binary |
| 1.810 | Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024? | Binary |
| 1.744 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| 1.742 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Liberal) | Binary |
| 1.742 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (New Democratic) | Binary |
| 1.742 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Bloc Québécois) | Binary |
| 1.742 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Green) | Binary |
| 1.694 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (People's) | Binary |
| 1.625 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.578 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 1.525 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 1.525 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.524 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.524 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.521 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 1.517 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 1.516 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.516 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.480 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Conservative) | Binary |
| 1.472 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 1.448 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 1.403 | Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 1.374 | What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants? | Continuous |
| 1.349 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| 1.245 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| 1.190 | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
| 1.189 | When will Moscow (stock) Exchange reopen its stock and derivative markets to both Russians and foreigners? | Continuous |
| 1.167 | What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be? | Continuous |
| 1.091 | In 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus? | Binary |
| 1.090 | How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024? | Continuous |
| 1.058 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| 0.994 | Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.935 | Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024? | Binary |
| 0.893 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| 0.751 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| 0.708 | What will be the average inflation in the US from January 2022 to December 2024? | Continuous |
| 0.692 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories)) | Binary |
| 0.619 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? | Binary |
| 0.585 | What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022? | Continuous |
| 0.556 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 0.538 | How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 0.534 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 0.431 | How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation? | Continuous |
| 0.425 | Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 0.375 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 0.373 | What will the US life expectancy be in 2023? | Continuous |
| 0.318 | Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025? | Binary |
| 0.296 | Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 0.293 | In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election? | Binary |
| 0.114 | BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026? | Binary |
| 0.087 | What will be the lowest monthly value for US total capacity utilization in 2023? | Continuous |
| 0.085 | How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 0.057 | What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016? | Continuous |
| 0.045 | Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025? | Binary |
| 0.043 | How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 0.021 | Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.021 | How many months in prison will Andrew Tate be sentenced to before 2026? | Continuous |
| 0.017 | Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.013 | Will Walmart stores in the United States return to 24-hour service before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.012 | Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.011 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.011 | Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.011 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.011 | How many uncontrolled reentries will China conduct by 2025? | Continuous |
| 0.011 | Will Amy Wax no longer have tenure at a top-24 US university before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.011 | How many Falcon 9 failures will there be before 2026? | Continuous |
| 0.009 | Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.009 | How many charter cities will exist by 2026? | Continuous |
| 0.007 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.005 | How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 0.000 | How much of major electronic design automation (EDA) companies' revenue will come from the Chinese market in the last quarter of 2025? | Continuous |
| -0.000 | How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025? | Continuous |
| -0.009 | What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| -0.360 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026? | Binary |
| -0.496 | How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2022-2024? | Continuous |
| -0.569 | What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025? | Continuous |
| -1.226 | Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
| -1.907 | Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025? | Binary |
| -2.471 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur) | Continuous |
| -2.737 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -4.729 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -4.939 | What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area? | Continuous |
| -6.816 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy? | Continuous |
| -8.095 | How many Chinese institutions of higher education will get approved for an artificial intelligence undergraduate program in 2023? | Continuous |
| -10.277 | Will Labor win the seat of Sturt in the next Australian Federal Election? | Binary |
| -11.663 | What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025? | Continuous |
| -11.709 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| -14.320 | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2024) | Continuous |
| -15.113 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn) | Continuous |
| -27.630 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027? | Binary |
| -32.166 | Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026? | Binary |
| -36.758 | How many dollars' worth of security assistance will the U.S. direct to Ukraine's military from Congress's Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative and Foreign Military Financing programs in FY 2023? | Continuous |
| -36.851 | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
| -38.957 | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2024) | Continuous |
| -42.538 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Trabucco) | Binary |
| -54.144 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -60.563 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -114.755 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| -123.779 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Neutron) | Continuous |
| -127.833 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Starship) | Continuous |
| -145.710 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -166.727 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| -359.784 | Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025? | Binary |
| -451.508 | Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)? | Binary |
| -497.369 | Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026? | Binary |