darron

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6400	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
114.921	How many UN member states will formally recognize Taiwan at the end of 2025?	Continuous
109.653	How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?	Continuous
99.590	Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?	Binary
98.755	Will Bud Light cease production by 2026?	Binary
98.618	Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?	Binary
96.929	Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?	Binary
96.621	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2026?	Binary
96.022	Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026?	Binary
90.229	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2025)	Binary
89.902	Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?	Binary
87.849	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?	Binary
85.335	Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?	Binary
82.251	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses)	Binary
76.493	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
76.476	Will the next president of Ecuador remain in office through the end of their term?	Binary
76.357	Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
75.881	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP)	Binary
75.881	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Die Linke)	Binary
75.618	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Grüne)	Binary
75.027	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD)	Binary
74.928	Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?	Binary
74.790	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
71.443	Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
68.827	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
68.800	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
68.770	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
68.743	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
68.693	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
67.871	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
66.052	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
65.995	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing)	Binary
65.923	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
65.511	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
64.821	Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?	Binary
63.761	Will Gautam Adani be listed in the top 10 of the Forbes' annual 'World's Billionaires List' before 2026?	Binary
63.189	Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?	Binary
62.772	Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?	Binary
62.115	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
61.324	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
61.045	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
61.045	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
59.709	Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?	Binary
59.453	Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?	Binary
59.438	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
58.632	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Green)	Binary
58.632	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (People's)	Binary
58.325	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (New Democratic)	Binary
58.325	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Bloc Québécois)	Binary
58.040	Will there be a successful coup in Cameroon before 2026?	Binary
58.025	Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?	Binary
57.600	Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025?	Binary
57.378	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
57.358	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)	Binary
57.338	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
52.273	How many charter cities will exist by 2026?	Continuous
48.510	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny some entities)	Binary
48.504	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (SPD)	Binary
48.439	Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
47.179	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
45.857	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
45.609	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
45.529	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
45.209	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses)	Binary
45.209	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
44.623	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing)	Binary
43.381	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
43.381	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
43.381	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
43.170	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
43.170	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
43.170	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
43.170	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
43.142	What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
43.100	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
42.984	How many countries will be in OPEC on December 31, 2025?	Continuous
42.369	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
42.147	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
42.147	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
41.951	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)	Binary
41.714	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
40.809	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
40.668	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (CDU/CSU)	Binary
40.502	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
40.159	What will be the average inflation in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
39.832	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
38.785	What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
37.853	Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election?	Binary
37.572	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP)	Binary
36.059	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
35.109	What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
34.890	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
34.062	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
33.890	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
33.719	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
33.682	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
33.054	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
32.990	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
32.953	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
32.627	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
32.377	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
31.943	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
30.516	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
30.497	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
30.376	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
29.653	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
29.606	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
29.365	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
29.139	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
28.283	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
28.119	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
27.824	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
27.117	What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
27.092	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
25.833	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
25.770	What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2025)	Continuous
24.270	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
24.032	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
22.557	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
22.454	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
22.308	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?	Binary
22.090	How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
22.012	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC)	Binary
22.005	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
21.584	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
21.533	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
21.533	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
21.532	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?	Binary
21.381	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
21.056	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
21.050	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
20.864	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
20.824	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
20.652	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
20.121	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
19.081	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
18.780	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated)	Continuous
18.720	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
18.131	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
17.979	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
17.912	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
17.515	What will China’s GDP be in 2023?	Continuous
17.395	How many customers will make up the biggest paying customer base of any AI assistant software in 2025?	Continuous
16.566	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
16.469	Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?	Binary
15.939	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
15.033	How many people will be employed in the electric vehicle industry in the United States in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
14.860	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
14.843	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
14.781	What will be the share of light vehicles sold globally which are zero-emission vehicles in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
14.481	When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?	Continuous
13.960	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
13.958	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
13.783	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
13.410	What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
13.323	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
12.810	How many states will have legally enforceable rules that are at least as stringent as Advanced Clean Cars II on January 1 of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
12.592	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
12.590	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
12.221	What will be the share of zero-emission vehicle federal fleet procurements in the United States in the following fiscal years? (2024)	Continuous
11.884	When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy?	Continuous
11.769	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
10.808	When will the next UK general election take place?	Continuous
10.682	What will be the estimated fleet average fuel economy (in mpg) imposed by a regulatory agency in the United States for light vehicles manufactured in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
9.770	Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election?	Binary
9.098	Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
9.085	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
8.783	Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?	Binary
8.589	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (4: Negotiations approved)	Continuous
7.806	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (3: Negotiations recommended)	Continuous
7.548	Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026?	Binary
6.413	Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?	Binary
5.735	Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?	Binary
5.615	Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?	Binary
5.490	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
5.298	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
5.204	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
5.109	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys)	Binary
5.084	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club)	Binary
5.070	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona)	Binary
5.070	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club)	Binary
5.035	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami)	Binary
4.461	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
2.721	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous
2.512	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
2.228	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
1.842	How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024?	Continuous
1.279	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
0.824	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
0.761	Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?	Binary
0.754	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
0.627	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
0.516	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
0.202	Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025?	Binary
-0.012	What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-0.892	How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
-0.992	Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?	Binary
-2.864	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-7.242	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
-8.365	What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?	Continuous
-8.437	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-9.498	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)	Binary
-10.798	Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
-14.721	Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?	Binary
-25.442	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
-26.896	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Conservative)	Binary
-35.949	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Liberal)	Binary
-39.630	Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?	Binary
-65.011	Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?	Binary
-71.617	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-93.126	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)	Binary
-175.924	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-232.146	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny some entities)	Binary