| 98.530 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 98.430 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 98.289 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 98.191 | How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 97.564 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 97.564 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 97.034 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 96.649 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 96.395 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 95.308 | India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025? | Binary |
| 94.785 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 93.593 | By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus? (2025) | Binary |
| 93.318 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 93.283 | Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025? | Binary |
| 93.243 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 92.394 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 91.820 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 91.820 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 91.820 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 91.004 | What will be the prime-age (25-54) labor force participation rate in the United States in these years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 90.620 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 90.620 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 90.162 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 89.439 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent)) | Binary |
| 89.356 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 88.967 | Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 88.340 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 87.805 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 86.486 | Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday? | Multiple Choice |
| 84.795 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 84.551 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 84.086 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 84.086 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 81.771 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-24) | Continuous |
| 81.339 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
| 80.935 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
| 80.561 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-24) | Continuous |
| 80.197 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
| 79.705 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand) | Binary |
| 79.705 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei) | Binary |
| 79.705 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann) | Binary |
| 79.423 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 78.932 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 78.407 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP)) | Binary |
| 77.593 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 77.279 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 77.264 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian) | Binary |
| 77.036 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 76.631 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport) | Binary |
| 76.631 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda) | Binary |
| 76.631 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer) | Binary |
| 76.631 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov) | Binary |
| 76.631 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin) | Binary |
| 76.627 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 76.448 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
| 76.199 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
| 75.909 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 75.758 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
| 75.579 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian) | Binary |
| 73.529 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
| 73.374 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi) | Binary |
| 73.310 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk) | Binary |
| 73.310 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave) | Binary |
| 72.261 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 72.261 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 71.856 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
| 71.762 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
| 71.676 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
| 71.290 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 70.715 | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 69.297 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 68.350 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 67.885 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants) | Binary |
| 67.746 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 67.746 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 67.656 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 67.457 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 66.802 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 65.747 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 65.747 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke) | Binary |
| 65.747 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot) | Binary |
| 65.747 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
| 65.747 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko) | Binary |
| 65.747 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov) | Binary |
| 65.747 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo) | Binary |
| 65.747 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Leinier Domínguez Pérez) | Binary |
| 65.257 | Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 64.402 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-24) | Continuous |
| 64.140 | Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season? | Binary |
| 63.964 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 63.840 | What will annual inflation be in the eurozone in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 63.151 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-24) | Continuous |
| 62.698 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
| 62.677 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
| 62.602 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
| 61.781 | How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 59.725 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 58.759 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 58.702 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 58.702 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 58.528 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 58.384 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 58.004 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 57.780 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
| 57.345 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
| 56.491 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 56.491 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 55.869 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
| 55.806 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
| 55.802 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
| 54.632 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 54.530 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 54.496 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
| 53.089 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang)) | Binary |
| 52.547 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Mar-24) | Continuous |
| 52.484 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
| 50.952 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 50.952 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 48.816 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
| 48.549 | What will the most expensive AI training run be in the following years, in millions of USD? (2024) | Continuous |
| 48.073 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 46.719 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Feb-24) | Continuous |
| 46.070 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 46.001 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 44.803 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So) | Binary |
| 44.693 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 42.639 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
| 42.428 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
| 38.621 | What will China's total population be in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 35.839 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri) | Binary |
| 35.837 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 35.087 | What will the annual real GDP growth rate be in the eurozone in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 35.044 | Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025? | Binary |
| 34.352 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP)) | Binary |
| 34.297 | Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 33.530 | What will China's total population be in these years? (2022) | Continuous |
| 32.912 | Will Threads support ActivityPub before 2025? | Binary |
| 31.966 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 30.960 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 27.784 | Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024? | Binary |
| 27.201 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 26.909 | What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 26.241 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 24.442 | What will annual inflation be in the eurozone in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 23.944 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 23.822 | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 22.808 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
| 22.704 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jan-24) | Continuous |
| 19.989 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja) | Binary |
| 19.541 | What will be the share of light vehicles sold globally which are zero-emission vehicles in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 17.782 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Jets) | Binary |
| 13.576 | Will Erling Haaland score the most goals in the 2023/24 Premier League season? | Binary |
| 12.204 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| 12.038 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 11.297 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 10.867 | What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020? (2023) | Continuous |
| 9.673 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 9.673 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 9.663 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 0.839 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 0.471 | Hunter Biden Indicted by Nov 5, 2024? (Yes) → Joe Biden Impeached by House? | Binary |
| 0.081 | Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025? | Binary |
| -2.122 | Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024? | Binary |
| -2.801 | Will average NAEP reading and math scores across 4th and 8th grades decline in 2024 compared to 2022? | Binary |
| -3.694 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju) | Binary |
| -13.662 | Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025? | Binary |
| -16.145 | When will an LLM replace GPT-4 at the top of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard? | Continuous |
| -16.807 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| -23.280 | What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020? (2024) | Continuous |
| -23.871 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| -24.918 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
| -35.739 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| -39.392 | Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025? | Binary |
| -45.736 | Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025? | Binary |
| -52.382 | Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| -57.112 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
| -64.342 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
| -72.347 | Will Ursula von der Leyen be re-appointed as President of the European Commission following the 2024 European elections? | Binary |
| -72.570 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| -77.304 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| -77.719 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| -111.845 | What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| -113.368 | What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -127.907 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -170.181 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| -181.556 | Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment? | Binary |
| -201.038 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| -203.956 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
| -205.769 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| -214.364 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -223.390 | When will Israel lift the Gaza Strip total blockade on four essential goods? | Continuous |
| -287.700 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
| -290.026 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
| -291.795 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
| -544.543 | Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India? | Binary |
| -561.161 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |