katifish

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

3.714	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
81.090	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 17th of December, 2021?	Continuous
70.990	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
50.842	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
46.965	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 14 January 2022?	Continuous
46.865	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
45.229	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
37.479	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
32.420	What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are "vaccine accepting" on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
30.172	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between Dec 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
27.166	What percentage of Virginia’s population will have received a booster dose as of 4 January 2022?	Continuous
26.851	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces cut off the A1 trunk route (Addis Ababa to Djibouti) by year's end?	Binary
22.977	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
18.614	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 26th of November, 2021?	Continuous
18.508	What will the average travel nurse salary in Virginia be for the 90-day period ending 31 March 2022?	Continuous
16.265	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
16.264	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
13.145	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
12.485	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
12.153	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
9.657	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
9.601	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
9.548	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
8.965	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
8.146	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
5.651	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
4.317	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
4.014	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Australia by the end of 2021?	Continuous
2.051	How many UC Berkeley undergraduates will test positive for covid this semester?	Continuous
1.422	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
1.086	Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?	Binary
0.885	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
0.876	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
0.830	Will implementation of “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
0.601	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
0.327	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
0.262	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
0.248	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
0.066	[Short-fuse] Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 January 2022?	Binary
0.037	Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?	Binary
0.004	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
-0.067	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
-0.144	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
-0.208	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
-0.797	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
-1.604	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
-4.031	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
-7.933	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
-9.282	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
-37.543	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
-41.218	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 31st of December, 2021?	Continuous
-43.354	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 10th of December, 2021?	Continuous
-44.557	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
-47.460	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
-50.826	When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?	Continuous
-56.203	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
-67.708	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
-70.460	When will the OSHA vaccine-or-test emergency temporary standard for private employers with 100+ employees take effect?	Continuous