galen

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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19.89		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
70.896	90.3%	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
57.390	82.7%	Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?	Binary
54.154	68.4%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
51.358	51.8%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
49.876	43.6%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
47.908	79.6%	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
44.937	95.6%	Will Sam Altman and Elon Musk be on the stage together at YC AI Startup School?	Binary
42.202	76.5%	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
41.257	60.0%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
40.846	88.4%	What will be be the price of Gold per troy ounce on May 16, 2025?	Continuous
40.127	38.2%	Will Tampa, Florida hit 100°F in August 2025?	Binary
37.142	61.7%	Will Tesla launch a self-driving ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas before July 2025?	Binary
36.437	81.6%	How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?	Multiple Choice
31.144	50.7%	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (April 26, 2025)	Continuous
30.525	88.8%	Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
28.822	81.7%	Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Europa League?	Multiple Choice
28.080	98.4%	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Men)	Continuous
27.421	54.0%	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
27.056	71.7%	Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?	Binary
23.263	97.5%	What will be the fastest average solving time of the 3x3x3 Rubik's Cube during November 2025?	Continuous
22.057	88.7%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
21.969	88.7%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
21.292	57.6%	Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season?	Binary
21.235	89.6%	Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?	Binary
20.902	59.9%	How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?	Continuous
20.696	57.6%	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
20.684	74.3%	Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?	Multiple Choice
19.727	28.9%	Will any opposition legislator in Taiwan lose their recall election on August 23, 2025?	Binary
19.692	50.7%	What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (April 26, 2025)	Continuous
19.515	76.4%	Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?	Binary
18.956	77.2%	How many runs will be scored in the 2025 World Series?	Continuous
18.537	50.8%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (April 26, 2025)	Continuous
18.464	74.4%	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
18.222	80.8%	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Dutch general election?	Multiple Choice
17.413	88.7%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
17.223	82.8%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
17.126	37.0%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
17.040	47.6%	Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?	Binary
16.735	66.1%	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
16.638	87.5%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
16.353	65.4%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
15.554	81.7%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
15.459	82.0%	How many Volcanoes will be erupting at the end of 2025?	Continuous
14.961	57.9%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
14.960	71.1%	Which team will win the 2025 League of Legends World Championship?	Multiple Choice
14.785	74.4%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
14.696	68.4%	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
14.577	87.2%	Will the National Archivist certify and publish the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution by June 30, 2025?	Binary
14.546	68.4%	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
13.926	60.0%	Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?	Binary
13.513	76.6%	Who will be the next President of Romania in 2025?	Multiple Choice
13.493	65.8%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
13.457	86.4%	When will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed?	Continuous
13.042	63.1%	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
12.960	48.7%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
12.958	44.5%	Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?	Binary
12.930	29.0%	Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?	Binary
12.610	59.5%	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
12.141	20.7%	How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025?	Continuous
11.929	26.8%	Will Nicholas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before January 1, 2026?	Binary
11.889	40.8%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
11.869	48.7%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
11.832	58.9%	Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?	Binary
11.809	57.3%	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
11.721	57.6%	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
11.588	90.0%	Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before November 1, 2025?	Binary
11.238	40.0%	Which Chamber of the US Congress will vote on a bill in furtherance of an acquisition of Greenland, before 2026?	Multiple Choice
11.193	48.7%	Who will win the Texas 18th district special election?	Multiple Choice
10.922	81.7%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
10.634	52.9%	Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?	Binary
9.988	40.0%	Will Bluesky reach 100 million users before the end of 2025?	Binary
9.811	19.6%	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
9.650	21.3%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
9.544	33.3%	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
9.241	18.2%	Who will win Big Brother 27 (US)?	Multiple Choice
8.945	45.8%	Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
8.445	36.8%	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
7.923	84.9%	Will the United States and Denmark announce formal negotiations over the possible transfer of sovereignty of Greenland to the United States before 2026?	Binary
7.871	29.3%	Will the US government shutdown end before October 15, 2025?	Binary
7.701	94.2%	Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?	Binary
7.694	96.2%	Will the US strike Iran by the end of May 2025?	Binary
7.423	37.8%	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that partially or fully exempts at least one executive branch department, the CIA, or EPA from the Freedom of Information Act?	Binary
7.384	19.8%	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
7.036	56.2%	Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?	Binary
6.964	87.2%	Will Elizabeth MacDonough, the current Senate parliamentarian, be removed or resign by June 30, 2025?	Binary
6.815	40.8%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
6.624	48.0%	Will the PSOE finish 2025 ahead of the PP in the polls average?	Binary
6.340	45.8%	Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?	Binary
5.624	80.2%	Will the world's five largest companies at the end of 2025 be in the tech sector?	Binary
5.534	51.8%	Will China and India ratify a bilateral border treaty before the end of 2025?	Binary
5.532	42.4%	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
5.460	40.0%	Will the highest-grossing film of 2025 be part of a franchise?	Binary
5.331	36.8%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (July 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
5.296	30.2%	Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?	Binary
5.043	30.5%	Will the Department of Justice or Education open a civil compliance investigation into whether diversity-related programs at Harvard constitute illegal discrimination or preferences before 2026?	Binary
4.926	32.9%	When will Metaculus reach 3 million total forecasts? (Winners announced!)	Continuous
4.893	40.0%	Will Vox surpass the 27% voting intention among young people in Spain by the end of 2025?	Binary
4.643	44.7%	Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?	Binary
4.516	16.0%	How many people will participate in US strikes beginning August 2025?	Continuous
4.515	60.0%	Will Pedro Sánchez still be president of Spain at the end of 2025?	Binary
4.486	11.3%	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (April 12, 2025)	Continuous
4.452	12.7%	What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Continuous
4.434	19.8%	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
4.395	27.3%	Will the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) draw from a dollar swap line with the US government before January 1, 2026?	Binary
4.347	17.0%	What color will the 2026 Pantone Color of the Year be?	Multiple Choice
4.324	11.3%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (April 12, 2025)	Continuous
4.222	40.0%	Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025?	Binary
4.104	32.9%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
4.041	25.0%	Which country will host the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP 31) in 2026?	Multiple Choice
3.999	19.8%	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
3.729	29.7%	Who will win the UK Labour Party's Deputy Leadership election in 2025?	Multiple Choice
3.626	51.3%	What will be the lead of Zohran Mamdani in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Continuous
3.476	87.1%	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Monique Ryan (2.2 v LIB in Kooyong, VIC))	Binary
3.462	5.3%	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
3.391	57.2%	Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?	Binary
3.349	31.9%	Which race will the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Champion be known after?	Multiple Choice
3.156	11.3%	What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (April 12, 2025)	Continuous
3.156	13.0%	When will Adelita Grijalva be sworn in?	Continuous
3.146	81.7%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
3.065	70.6%	Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?	Binary
2.768	49.0%	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (May-25)	Continuous
2.727	21.7%	Will Omar Fateh be elected mayor of Minneapolis, Minnesota in 2025?	Binary
2.615	57.1%	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
2.575	12.7%	Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?	Binary
2.553	11.3%	What will be the longest field goal of the 2025 NFL season?	Continuous
2.485	33.6%	What will happen next concerning the US executive order “Reevaluating And Realigning United States Foreign Aid”?	Multiple Choice
2.363	59.5%	Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25?	Binary
2.225	64.0%	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (Revenue)	Continuous
2.210	12.6%	What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?	Continuous
2.160	15.2%	Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025?	Binary
2.150	87.1%	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Zoe Daniel (3.3 v LIB in Goldstein, VIC))	Binary
2.084	17.0%	What will be the percentage of zero-emission cars among Norwegian new car registrations during November 2025?	Continuous
2.062	12.2%	What will be the market price of the most expensive Pokémon card from the Mega Evolution expansion on November 26th?	Continuous
1.850	9.3%	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10)	Continuous
1.638	36.8%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
1.610	14.7%	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?	Binary
1.557	12.8%	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Samoan general election?	Multiple Choice
1.389	21.6%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kostiantynivka)	Binary
1.287	87.1%	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Andrew Wilkie (20.8 v ALP in Clark, TAS))	Binary
1.248	81.4%	Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?	Binary
1.194	1.8%	Will a vote of no confidence pass the French National Assembly before July 14, 2025?	Binary
1.180	7.4%	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2026)	Binary
1.134	21.6%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kupyansk)	Binary
1.114	25.4%	Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?	Binary
1.091	7.9%	Will the US government be shut down before October 2, 2025?	Binary
1.064	36.8%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
1.063	12.9%	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
0.942	27.2%	Will Rachel Reeves remain UK Chancellor of the Exchequer until December, 2025?	Binary
0.883	14.7%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
0.835	8.1%	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
0.713	9.9%	Will WTI crude oil drop below $65 per barrel and stays there for 1 week before the 3rd quarter of 2025?	Binary
0.663	2.7%	Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?	Binary
0.657	7.5%	Which party will win the 2025 Runcorn and Helsby by-election?	Multiple Choice
0.635	3.7%	Will a suspected shooter in the assassination of political activist Charlie Kirk be neutralized before September 19, 2025?	Binary
0.566	64.3%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
0.505	22.5%	Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025?	Binary
0.502	10.2%	Will the US national debt be under $38 trillion on September 30, 2025?	Binary
0.492	0.8%	Will Elon Musk or Donald Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025?	Binary
0.470	5.7%	What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025?	Continuous
0.446	78.7%	Will the US lift the price cap on Russian oil before July 1, 2025?	Binary
0.441	48.8%	Will the 2017 TCJA Individual Tax Cuts Be Extended Using a "Current Policy" Baseline in Senate Reconciliation?	Binary
0.432	5.2%	Will Donald Trump publicly criticize Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett before July 15, 2025?	Binary
0.289	5.2%	Before July 15, 2025, will Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom be the highest polling party in the Netherlands by at least 5 points, according to Politico?	Binary
0.261	98.4%	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Women)	Continuous
0.221	39.4%	Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (DeepSeek)	Binary
0.139	2.0%	What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (May-25)	Continuous
0.119	0.1%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
0.052	0.3%	Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?	Binary
0.030	87.1%	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Helen Haines (8.9 v LIB in Indi, VIC))	Binary
0.005	0.0%	What percent of Americans will hold a favorable view of China per the Pew Research Center's 2025 annual poll?	Continuous
-0.068	4.3%	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-1.049	10.3%	Will Blue Origin's "Never Tell Me The Odds" launch before 2026 and successfully land?	Binary
-1.152	35.8%	Which party will win the seat of Bullwinkel in the 2025 Australian Federal Election?	Multiple Choice
-1.357	4.2%	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Oct-25)	Continuous
-1.369	64.3%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
-1.486	81.7%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
-1.752	87.1%	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Kate Chaney (1.3 v LIB in Curtin, WA))	Binary
-2.042	80.6%	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
-2.129	88.3%	Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?	Binary
-2.344	87.1%	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Allegra Spender (6.8 v LIB in Wentworth, NSW))	Binary
-2.625	36.2%	Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?	Binary
-2.991	87.1%	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Sophie Scamps (3.3 v LIB in Mackellar, NSW))	Binary
-3.121	87.1%	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Zali Steggall (9.4 v LIB in Warringah, NSW))	Binary
-3.268	21.6%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Myrnohrad)	Binary
-3.453	71.1%	Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025?	Binary
-3.843	30.4%	Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?	Binary
-6.495	23.6%	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-7.187	39.0%	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (May-25)	Continuous
-8.600	87.1%	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Dai Le (1.1 v ALP in Fowler, NSW))	Binary
-9.114	78.1%	Чи отримає Україна Тауруси до липня 2025? / Will Ukraine acquire Taurus missiles before July 2025?	Binary
-14.691	76.4%	When will the 2025 Australian Federal election be held?	Continuous
-21.794	17.8%	On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025?	Continuous