SimonM

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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11.28	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
126.067	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
113.138	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
94.099	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
80.899	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
74.217	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021?	Continuous
64.437	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
63.299	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
55.148	How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?	Continuous
52.545	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
52.182	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
44.549	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
44.077	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
43.222	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]	Continuous
41.192	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
41.128	How efficacious will the Sputnik V SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be according to the peer reviewed results of the Phase 3 RCT?	Continuous
40.054	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
39.899	Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
38.481	How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?	Continuous
38.282	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
38.170	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
35.730	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
34.994	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
34.053	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
33.926	How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
33.756	When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?	Continuous
32.615	How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022?	Continuous
31.015	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
30.644	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
30.227	How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
28.806	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
28.503	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
28.372	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
27.057	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
26.110	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
25.584	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous
25.462	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
25.130	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
24.962	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
24.924	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
24.448	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
23.890	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
23.581	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
23.564	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
23.282	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous
23.111	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
22.903	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
22.472	How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?	Continuous
22.141	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
21.690	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
21.036	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
21.027	How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?	Continuous
20.718	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	Binary
19.964	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
19.853	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
19.676	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
19.633	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
19.125	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	Binary
19.033	What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?	Continuous
18.375	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
18.223	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
18.119	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
17.858	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
17.530	How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?	Continuous
17.445	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
17.147	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
17.037	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
16.994	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
16.400	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
16.291	How many consumer electric vehicles (including PHEV, HEV and EV) will be sold by Volkswagen group in 2020?	Continuous
16.261	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?	Continuous
16.006	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
15.959	Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
15.871	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?	Continuous
15.665	How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?	Continuous
15.307	How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020?	Continuous
14.969	Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?	Binary
14.686	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
14.406	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
14.072	How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
13.930	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for January 2021?	Continuous
13.834	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
13.457	How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
13.444	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
13.272	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
13.268	What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?	Continuous
12.928	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
12.892	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
12.835	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
12.818	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
12.623	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
12.430	How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
12.421	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
12.328	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
12.178	What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
12.048	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
11.609	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	Binary
11.306	What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?	Continuous
11.211	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
11.014	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
10.898	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
10.788	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
10.458	What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?	Continuous
10.369	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
9.789	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
9.744	What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
9.718	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?	Continuous
9.348	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
9.177	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
9.160	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
8.942	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
8.926	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
8.831	What will be the COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index for the US be on February 1st 2021?	Continuous
8.550	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
8.317	How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?	Continuous
8.202	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
8.180	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
7.902	Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
7.843	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
7.736	Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
7.714	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
7.693	How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
7.588	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
7.485	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
7.482	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
7.289	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
7.275	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
7.214	What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?	Continuous
7.039	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
6.768	Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
6.699	For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
6.554	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	Binary
6.483	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
6.390	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
6.002	When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard?	Continuous
5.713	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
5.640	How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?	Continuous
5.614	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L3)	Continuous
5.368	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
5.142	What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?	Continuous
5.059	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	Binary
5.001	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
4.999	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?	Binary
4.989	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
4.913	What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?	Continuous
4.872	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
4.753	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee?	Continuous
4.560	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?	Binary
3.838	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
3.744	Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?	Binary
3.461	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
3.356	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
3.322	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
3.279	Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?	Binary
2.995	When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?	Continuous
2.907	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
2.783	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
2.354	Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?	Binary
2.221	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
1.821	How many total games will be played in the NFL's 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
1.755	When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
1.620	How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?	Continuous
1.213	If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?	Continuous
1.094	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
0.838	Will the Open Courts Act become law?	Binary
0.642	What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?	Continuous
0.592	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
0.579	Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021?	Binary
0.463	Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?	Binary
-0.369	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
-1.680	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	Binary
-2.270	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
-2.696	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
-2.888	Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?	Binary
-2.912	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be cast via early in-person voting?	Continuous
-3.333	What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?	Continuous
-3.681	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
-5.196	What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-7.351	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
-10.315	Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?	Binary
-13.836	Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?	Binary
-15.117	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-16.572	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
-16.999	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?	Continuous
-28.207	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
-35.697	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-39.602	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
-47.944	Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?	Binary
-64.576	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
-70.166	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-72.146	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-85.638	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
-117.490	How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?	Continuous
-132.374	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
-167.620	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous