wobblybobby

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

4.339	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
50.594	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the months of August to December 2021?	Continuous
38.391	When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?	Continuous
37.122	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
34.360	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
30.881	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
29.297	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
26.185	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
24.666	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?	Continuous
22.437	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
16.912	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
14.746	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
10.915	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
9.490	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
8.821	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
8.731	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
8.503	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?	Continuous
8.073	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
7.490	By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?	Binary
7.466	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
7.083	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
6.742	By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?	Binary
5.300	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
5.247	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
5.085	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
4.422	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
4.227	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
3.946	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
3.763	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
3.663	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
2.673	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
2.635	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
2.415	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
2.350	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
2.071	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
1.889	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
1.871	When will the Taliban take Kabul?	Continuous
1.504	By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?	Binary
1.415	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
1.333	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
1.221	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
1.188	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
0.913	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
0.896	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
0.881	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
0.709	Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021?	Binary
0.698	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
0.543	Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously?	Binary
0.530	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
0.441	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
0.439	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
0.403	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
0.395	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
0.306	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
0.280	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
0.278	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
0.149	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
0.109	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
0.008	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
0.003	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-0.008	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-0.420	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
-0.544	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
-1.132	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
-1.202	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
-1.232	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
-1.476	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
-1.749	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
-2.342	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
-2.555	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
-2.570	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
-2.614	Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?	Binary
-2.974	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
-3.076	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
-3.267	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
-4.073	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
-6.185	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
-6.381	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 18 September?	Continuous
-8.489	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
-10.097	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
-17.797	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
-19.407	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
-19.734	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous