Ale

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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4.499		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
47.881	87.5%	What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
47.506	98.3%	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2026)	Continuous
35.236	70.8%	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
34.574	86.1%	What will productivity be in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
34.085	99.9%	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
33.922	90.0%	How many structures will be newly deposited to the Protein Data Bank archive in 2025?	Continuous
32.664	88.9%	What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
29.254	58.9%	How many Japanese Air Force responses to Chinese military threats there will be by 2024?	Continuous
28.554	58.9%	What will China’s GDP be in 2023?	Continuous
27.503	93.4%	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
26.805	50.0%	What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
26.701	88.9%	What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
26.096	59.6%	When will San Francisco County lift their mask mandate?	Continuous
25.016	50.0%	How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
24.102	88.9%	What will the world rice yield be (in tonnes per hectare) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
24.001	50.0%	What will be the median cost of a visit to space for a private citizen? (2025)	Continuous
23.965	99.3%	By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020?	Continuous
23.842	50.0%	What will be the maximum number of on-Earth reuses for a single booster or other rocket stage in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
23.742	31.2%	When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective?	Continuous
23.215	99.5%	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous
23.159	50.0%	How many zero emission light vehicles will be available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) in the United States for the following model years? (2025)	Continuous
22.950	44.9%	How many states will have legally enforceable rules that are at least as stringent as Advanced Clean Cars II on January 1 of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
21.473	86.1%	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?	Binary
20.791	50.0%	What will be the number of satellites launched in each of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
20.524	86.1%	What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023)	Continuous
19.664	41.8%	How many uncontrolled reentries will China conduct by 2025?	Continuous
19.654	50.0%	What will be the median estimated range (in miles) of all-electric vehicles available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) for the following model years? (2025)	Continuous
19.639	98.5%	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
18.854	50.0%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Terran R)	Continuous
18.466	50.0%	What will be the cumulative number of private citizens visiting space for the first time? (2025)	Continuous
18.193	50.5%	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
17.886	89.8%	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
17.813	88.9%	What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
17.770	50.0%	What percent of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused? (2025)	Continuous
17.297	40.0%	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
17.185	29.0%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn)	Continuous
17.135	95.5%	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
15.538	87.5%	How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
14.748	49.3%	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
14.689	97.9%	How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?	Continuous
14.377	99.5%	What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report?	Continuous
12.867	42.4%	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
12.236	46.0%	Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?	Binary
12.082	95.1%	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
11.981	44.9%	What will be the share of zero-emission vehicle federal fleet procurements in the United States in the following fiscal years? (2024)	Continuous
11.876	35.2%	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?	Continuous
11.159	32.1%	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
10.491	44.9%	What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
10.457	88.9%	What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
10.340	22.9%	Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025?	Binary
10.210	80.0%	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
10.028	35.2%	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022?	Continuous
9.906	16.2%	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
9.703	88.9%	What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
9.698	80.0%	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
9.281	50.0%	What will be the total quantity of space debris orbiting earth in each year? (2025)	Continuous
8.486	35.2%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?	Continuous
8.010	50.0%	What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2025)	Continuous
7.991	99.5%	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
7.888	8.7%	What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?	Continuous
7.759	24.1%	What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
7.734	7.2%	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
7.698	87.5%	What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
7.636	44.9%	What will be the share of light vehicles sold globally which are zero-emission vehicles in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
6.962	13.1%	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?	Continuous
6.896	8.5%	How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q4 (FY2025, ends Jan 2025))	Continuous
6.890	47.8%	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
6.641	99.9%	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
5.955	12.4%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Ariane 6)	Continuous
5.834	44.9%	What will be the median estimated range (in miles) of all-electric vehicles available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) for the following model years? (2024)	Continuous
5.787	17.7%	What will the enacted budget for the National Health Service Corps be in FY 2024?	Continuous
5.780	99.7%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
5.647	44.9%	How many people will be employed in the electric vehicle industry in the United States in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
5.424	16.0%	What will the US life expectancy be in 2023?	Continuous
5.367	44.9%	What will be the estimated fleet average fuel economy (in mpg) imposed by a regulatory agency in the United States for light vehicles manufactured in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
5.355	80.0%	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
5.017	7.8%	What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
4.669	57.6%	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
4.567	6.6%	Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?	Binary
4.451	92.5%	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
4.346	86.1%	What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years? (2023)	Continuous
4.297	22.8%	Will the next president of Ecuador remain in office through the end of their term?	Binary
4.129	16.5%	When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?	Continuous
3.937	6.7%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Max)	Continuous
3.783	59.4%	What will be the number of US states with building code requirements related to electric vehicles in 2025?	Continuous
3.758	26.5%	What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022?	Continuous
3.756	6.0%	What will be the average inflation in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
3.683	11.3%	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
3.645	24.5%	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
3.631	5.5%	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
3.599	18.3%	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2024)	Continuous
3.490	15.5%	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
3.440	86.1%	How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
3.210	5.1%	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
3.204	4.6%	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
3.162	20.0%	Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?	Binary
2.995	59.4%	What will be the number of US states with "right to charge" regulations in 2025?	Continuous
2.990	11.6%	Will Josh Frydenberg re-enter Australian parliament before the next general election?	Binary
2.977	9.3%	What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025)	Continuous
2.860	14.2%	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
2.818	12.0%	What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?	Continuous
2.800	3.9%	What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?	Continuous
2.786	14.7%	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
2.784	50.6%	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
2.772	6.0%	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
2.610	28.0%	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC)	Binary
2.511	88.2%	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
2.489	13.7%	Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?	Binary
2.455	12.7%	Will Gautam Adani be listed in the top 10 of the Forbes' annual 'World's Billionaires List' before 2026?	Binary
2.402	6.9%	What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022?	Continuous
2.358	28.0%	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP)	Binary
2.323	4.7%	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
2.302	6.7%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Min)	Continuous
2.228	7.7%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
2.214	35.2%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
2.089	5.9%	When will Moscow (stock) Exchange reopen its stock and derivative markets to both Russians and foreigners?	Continuous
2.083	10.9%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2025?	Continuous
2.077	90.0%	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
2.042	50.1%	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
2.035	7.9%	Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza?	Binary
2.007	17.7%	Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?	Binary
1.991	50.0%	What will be the maximum number of people in space simultaneously for each of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
1.831	6.7%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Max)	Continuous
1.801	7.7%	How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
1.719	6.7%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Max)	Continuous
1.647	10.7%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2025?	Continuous
1.637	6.7%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Min)	Continuous
1.601	15.7%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
1.582	12.8%	Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections?	Binary
1.497	6.7%	What will be the total global production of biofuels (measured in thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2022?	Continuous
1.384	14.5%	Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?	Binary
1.312	15.4%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?	Binary
1.310	8.6%	Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?	Binary
1.286	70.8%	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
1.240	8.5%	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
1.186	3.3%	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation?	Continuous
1.168	14.4%	Will the majority of companies in the United States offer remote or hybrid work options in 2025?	Binary
1.084	4.4%	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
1.070	7.8%	Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?	Binary
1.060	50.1%	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
1.018	1.0%	What will OpenAI's estimated Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) be in 2024?	Continuous
0.993	4.6%	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
0.927	2.7%	What percentage of Hispanic or Latino voters will vote Republican in 2024?	Continuous
0.896	79.3%	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
0.870	6.7%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Min)	Continuous
0.859	5.3%	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.852	50.1%	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
0.840	50.0%	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
0.838	9.7%	How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024?	Continuous
0.808	3.5%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Republican)	Continuous
0.768	2.2%	What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2?	Continuous
0.738	47.9%	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
0.665	6.4%	Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.662	1.2%	What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
0.656	2.6%	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
0.641	27.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
0.630	1.3%	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
0.629	3.5%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Democratic)	Continuous
0.625	10.9%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2025?	Continuous
0.622	2.1%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
0.603	3.1%	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
0.583	0.5%	What will be the Shiller P/E ratio of the S&P 500 on January 1, 2025?	Continuous
0.555	15.7%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
0.532	25.2%	Will Labor win the seat of Sturt in the next Australian Federal Election?	Binary
0.521	5.7%	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
0.516	3.5%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Forward)	Continuous
0.484	8.4%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
0.481	2.1%	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
0.455	1.6%	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
0.434	2.0%	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
0.415	15.7%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
0.400	0.6%	Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?	Binary
0.391	0.4%	What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?	Continuous
0.386	2.5%	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
0.383	2.4%	What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?	Continuous
0.378	0.3%	When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?	Continuous
0.372	5.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
0.369	2.0%	Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?	Binary
0.365	7.7%	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
0.361	10.9%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2025?	Continuous
0.360	9.3%	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025)	Continuous
0.356	3.2%	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
0.354	0.3%	What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?	Continuous
0.339	0.5%	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2024)	Continuous
0.320	2.1%	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
0.317	2.8%	In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
0.317	1.8%	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
0.288	7.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
0.275	3.6%	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
0.270	15.7%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
0.257	3.5%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (No Labels)	Continuous
0.256	2.1%	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
0.250	15.7%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
0.248	0.4%	When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US?	Continuous
0.244	24.2%	Will Urbit development be ongoing in 2025?	Binary
0.231	0.5%	What will be the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price NSA Index for January 2025?	Continuous
0.230	15.7%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
0.224	3.5%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Green)	Continuous
0.218	15.7%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
0.206	0.4%	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
0.204	1.6%	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
0.201	13.0%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
0.197	6.8%	How many cultivated meat ventures there will be in 2022 according to the GFI State of Industry report for that year?	Continuous
0.183	5.6%	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
0.183	3.7%	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
0.176	0.6%	Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
0.175	0.3%	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
0.173	0.4%	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
0.170	2.1%	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
0.167	5.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
0.166	5.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
0.161	0.5%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3)	Binary
0.161	0.3%	When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
0.161	15.7%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
0.153	15.7%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
0.149	0.7%	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
0.131	0.5%	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
0.128	13.0%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
0.125	0.3%	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
0.113	5.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
0.106	0.5%	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
0.101	0.4%	How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025?	Continuous
0.097	5.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
0.090	0.5%	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
0.086	5.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
0.085	0.5%	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
0.079	0.3%	How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024?	Continuous
0.073	8.4%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
0.066	42.4%	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
0.066	0.3%	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
0.065	0.5%	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
0.065	0.3%	Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?	Binary
0.063	0.3%	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
0.061	0.5%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2)	Binary
0.058	0.3%	If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?	Continuous
0.057	0.4%	Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?	Binary
0.057	0.3%	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
0.057	5.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
0.055	3.2%	How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
0.049	0.6%	Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025?	Binary
0.046	0.5%	Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?	Binary
0.037	0.3%	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
0.034	0.4%	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
0.026	0.3%	How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus between 2021 to 2025?	Continuous
0.025	0.5%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1)	Binary
0.024	5.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
-0.010	8.4%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
-0.046	11.7%	How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023?	Continuous
-0.083	10.9%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2025?	Continuous
-0.157	23.9%	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
-0.193	3.5%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Libertarian)	Continuous
-0.222	14.7%	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
-0.224	2.1%	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-0.293	42.5%	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
-0.393	2.5%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
-0.453	88.9%	What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-0.549	50.5%	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
-0.599	47.8%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
-0.894	42.5%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
-1.132	87.5%	What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-1.157	0.5%	What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025?	Continuous
-1.186	23.9%	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-1.189	7.0%	When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?	Continuous
-1.290	42.4%	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
-1.385	1.9%	Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?	Binary
-1.521	48.0%	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
-1.525	47.8%	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
-1.586	87.5%	What will the world population be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-1.620	42.5%	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
-1.710	47.8%	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
-1.768	42.5%	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
-1.824	7.5%	When will the RSV monoclonal antibody nirsevimab (Beyfortus) no longer be in shortage in the US?	Continuous
-1.866	51.0%	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
-1.898	42.5%	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
-2.033	13.5%	What will be the lowest monthly value for US total capacity utilization in 2023?	Continuous
-2.331	47.8%	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
-2.401	42.5%	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
-2.589	50.1%	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
-2.693	99.5%	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
-2.698	91.4%	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-2.894	12.3%	If Labor wins the next Australian election, what will the Reserve Bank's cash rate target be in June 2025?	Continuous
-3.371	96.4%	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-3.465	42.5%	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
-3.830	48.0%	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
-3.849	40.0%	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
-3.908	87.5%	What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-4.076	50.0%	What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-4.306	42.5%	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
-4.315	78.3%	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-4.799	87.5%	What will be the global rate of homicide deaths per 100,000 people in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-4.994	65.0%	How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
-5.316	80.0%	Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?	Binary
-6.189	30.1%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-6.632	88.9%	How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-6.648	90.0%	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2025)	Continuous
-6.661	47.8%	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
-7.718	22.1%	When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months?	Continuous
-8.661	51.0%	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
-9.009	80.0%	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
-9.606	99.5%	What will the disclosed global venture capital investment in cultivated meat companies be in 2022 (in millions of USD)?	Continuous
-10.749	20.8%	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Dec-24)	Continuous
-11.524	50.0%	What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per gallon) in the United States in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-12.234	99.5%	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
-13.380	65.0%	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
-13.696	87.5%	What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-13.836	82.2%	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
-14.521	82.7%	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
-14.765	35.0%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-15.667	48.0%	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
-15.805	50.0%	What will be the number of operational satellites in each year? (2025)	Continuous
-16.555	94.8%	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
-19.758	35.2%	How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022?	Continuous
-22.050	86.1%	What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-22.484	98.8%	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
-23.716	59.5%	How many Chinese institutions of higher education will get approved for an artificial intelligence undergraduate program in 2023?	Continuous
-25.503	89.1%	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
-25.851	35.2%	What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-28.035	78.5%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-29.556	15.7%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-29.978	91.4%	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-31.725	99.5%	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
-31.946	51.0%	What will be the US FY 2024 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)?	Continuous
-36.353	50.0%	What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-36.573	50.0%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Starship)	Continuous
-63.035	80.0%	How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
-73.837	50.0%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Neutron)	Continuous
-81.621	93.2%	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
-96.100	94.6%	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary