H559

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2023-24

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

11.36		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
61.597	95.2%	In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?	Binary
50.776	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju)	Binary
49.221	66.4%	Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023?	Binary
49.155	79.8%	How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2023-2024 season?	Continuous
48.944	82.5%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Florida)	Continuous
48.493	83.0%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Colorado)	Continuous
44.893	94.9%	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
43.810	82.5%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (New York)	Continuous
43.653	83.0%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (California)	Continuous
43.433	79.6%	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu)	Continuous
40.913	83.0%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Texas)	Continuous
39.279	83.0%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Pennsylvania)	Continuous
38.852	82.5%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
38.206	82.5%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Massachusetts)	Continuous
38.121	83.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
37.654	82.5%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Illinois)	Continuous
37.289	83.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
36.860	98.9%	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
34.827	82.5%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
34.583	79.6%	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu)	Continuous
34.191	99.3%	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
33.655	82.5%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
32.161	83.1%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
31.773	82.5%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
31.186	99.6%	Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?	Binary
30.978	83.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
30.602	99.0%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested)	Binary
30.457	75.1%	Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?	Binary
30.233	99.9%	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
28.859	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja)	Binary
26.968	97.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
26.826	97.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan)	Binary
26.041	79.6%	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19)	Continuous
25.041	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri)	Binary
24.478	79.6%	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined)	Continuous
24.406	79.6%	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV)	Continuous
24.308	93.3%	By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus? (2025)	Binary
23.838	79.6%	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined)	Continuous
23.605	30.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
23.378	79.6%	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV)	Continuous
22.929	79.6%	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19)	Continuous
21.743	99.0%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel)	Binary
19.957	50.8%	When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users?	Continuous
19.576	96.1%	Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?	Binary
19.492	99.6%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
19.271	98.3%	Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2025)	Binary
18.171	99.7%	5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
17.902	99.0%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas)	Binary
17.458	79.6%	Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season?	Binary
17.061	79.8%	Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
16.652	76.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
16.029	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So)	Binary
15.676	82.5%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
13.800	96.1%	Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?	Binary
13.420	94.5%	Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?	Binary
13.401	73.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Leinier Domínguez Pérez)	Binary
12.651	74.0%	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
12.517	96.6%	Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday?	Multiple Choice
11.539	82.5%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Missouri)	Continuous
11.506	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov)	Binary
11.487	97.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
11.347	100.0%	Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?	Binary
11.111	63.1%	Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?	Binary
10.983	100.0%	Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?	Binary
10.367	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen)	Binary
10.213	97.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
10.077	77.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota)	Binary
9.989	97.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas)	Binary
9.584	99.8%	Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023?	Binary
9.453	85.2%	Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?	Binary
9.391	80.4%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada)	Binary
9.131	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian)	Binary
8.441	80.4%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia)	Binary
8.080	80.4%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida)	Binary
7.914	100.0%	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?	Binary
7.908	97.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio)	Binary
7.864	80.4%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa)	Binary
7.590	79.8%	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024)	Continuous
7.416	75.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
7.323	80.4%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska)	Binary
7.323	75.1%	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?	Binary
7.136	99.1%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah)	Binary
7.112	56.4%	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
6.995	80.4%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona)	Binary
6.918	48.2%	Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?	Binary
6.872	67.3%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Binary
6.788	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi)	Binary
6.722	66.4%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
6.382	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov)	Binary
6.252	76.3%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024)	Continuous
6.228	99.6%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
6.215	87.0%	Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
6.098	65.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide))	Binary
6.058	54.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
5.983	74.2%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D)	Binary
5.957	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave)	Binary
5.953	96.4%	Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024?	Binary
5.874	90.8%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024)	Continuous
5.711	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda)	Binary
5.705	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei)	Binary
5.697	80.4%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico)	Binary
5.625	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi)	Binary
5.491	80.4%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire)	Binary
5.468	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian)	Binary
5.339	69.8%	What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (March 30, 2024)	Continuous
5.293	75.9%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
5.170	99.0%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power)	Binary
5.064	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport)	Binary
4.846	96.4%	India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?	Binary
4.669	99.6%	What will the most expensive AI training run be in the following years, in millions of USD? (2024)	Continuous
4.636	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer)	Binary
4.456	99.0%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government)	Binary
4.451	8.4%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman)	Binary
4.450	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk)	Binary
4.244	54.4%	Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election?	Binary
4.199	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin)	Binary
4.073	100.0%	Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2024)	Binary
3.907	96.1%	Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?	Binary
3.891	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann)	Binary
3.860	98.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
3.793	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko)	Binary
3.788	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand)	Binary
3.750	99.1%	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024?	Binary
3.636	72.3%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado)	Binary
3.591	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana)	Binary
3.479	99.0%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
3.306	80.3%	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024)	Continuous
3.293	99.6%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
3.249	98.4%	Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
3.214	65.6%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
3.157	97.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
3.155	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu)	Binary
3.091	98.7%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft)	Binary
3.057	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke)	Binary
2.986	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev)	Binary
2.705	30.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
2.675	74.2%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA)	Binary
2.599	73.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo)	Binary
2.515	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura)	Binary
2.501	94.7%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
2.459	39.8%	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024)	Continuous
2.408	72.8%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence)	Binary
2.369	95.4%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
2.319	82.5%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
2.249	99.6%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
2.196	32.4%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)	Binary
2.100	98.7%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI)	Binary
2.071	99.7%	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025)	Binary
1.960	96.6%	Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?	Binary
1.951	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot)	Binary
1.901	40.4%	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024)	Continuous
1.884	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi)	Binary
1.843	92.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov)	Binary
1.729	72.8%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
1.583	74.2%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID)	Binary
1.580	54.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott)	Binary
1.476	74.2%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL)	Binary
1.454	27.3%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (San Antonio Spurs)	Binary
1.450	67.3%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
1.449	32.4%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake)	Binary
1.440	72.8%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
1.414	98.7%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman)	Binary
1.370	72.8%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
1.336	67.3%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
1.207	67.3%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds)	Binary
1.169	77.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
1.150	72.8%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie)	Binary
1.136	72.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
1.093	8.4%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati)	Binary
1.090	67.3%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace)	Binary
1.067	67.3%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst)	Binary
1.057	42.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
1.056	67.3%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds)	Binary
1.020	32.3%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio)	Binary
1.016	32.0%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey)	Binary
0.967	72.8%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
0.867	48.9%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New York Knicks)	Binary
0.848	99.4%	Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont?	Binary
0.805	53.6%	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
0.783	39.6%	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent))	Binary
0.779	72.8%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump)	Binary
0.738	67.3%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin)	Binary
0.689	21.6%	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
0.679	30.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson)	Binary
0.667	74.2%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew)	Binary
0.626	89.7%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
0.618	35.0%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Utah Jazz)	Binary
0.581	99.6%	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?	Binary
0.506	1.5%	Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
0.499	36.9%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Chicago Bulls)	Binary
0.497	72.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
0.490	75.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
0.473	67.3%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump)	Binary
0.451	39.6%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Houston Rockets)	Binary
0.442	63.0%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
0.427	32.6%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Memphis Grizzlies)	Binary
0.410	72.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
0.385	17.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
0.378	6.9%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear)	Binary
0.365	27.7%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Detroit Pistons)	Binary
0.355	36.1%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Atlanta Hawks)	Binary
0.335	8.4%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever)	Binary
0.319	30.9%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Portland Trail Blazers)	Binary
0.300	27.7%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Toronto Raptors)	Binary
0.299	32.2%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Brooklyn Nets)	Binary
0.245	6.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York)	Binary
0.218	26.1%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Charlotte Hornets)	Binary
0.206	22.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
0.169	20.7%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Washington Wizards)	Binary
0.155	8.4%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy)	Binary
0.154	81.8%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
0.134	8.4%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella)	Binary
0.075	8.4%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt)	Binary
0.034	0.5%	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024)	Binary
0.019	0.1%	Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025?	Binary
-0.022	25.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt)	Binary
-0.023	54.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem)	Binary
-0.060	0.6%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes)	Binary
-0.076	92.6%	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024)	Binary
-0.138	67.7%	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024)	Continuous
-0.169	92.3%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
-0.173	22.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
-0.187	94.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
-0.269	74.2%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR)	Binary
-0.294	88.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez)	Binary
-0.306	0.6%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No)	Binary
-0.314	90.0%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd)	Binary
-0.320	95.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
-0.629	84.0%	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024)	Continuous
-0.670	99.6%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
-0.764	84.1%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
-0.832	84.1%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder)	Binary
-1.533	99.6%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
-3.169	80.3%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024)	Continuous
-3.573	39.1%	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024)	Continuous
-3.636	79.9%	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024)	Continuous
-4.166	58.2%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jan-24)	Continuous
-4.910	74.2%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP)	Binary
-5.036	99.5%	Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-5.888	99.6%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
-7.422	99.6%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
-9.919	75.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-10.451	65.6%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
-24.839	75.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-25.607	75.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-27.209	75.8%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-31.888	75.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-41.989	98.8%	Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025?	Binary