PhilippSchoenegger

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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10.02		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
114.760	84.9%	How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2026?	Continuous
72.537	100.0%	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
46.467	99.9%	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
44.352	75.9%	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
44.061	50.5%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous
42.230	57.1%	Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?	Binary
41.709	100.0%	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
40.344	85.0%	What will Meta’s yearly operating loss on Reality Labs be? (2025)	Continuous
38.070	95.0%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
38.029	99.9%	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
35.448	50.5%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
34.048	47.4%	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
33.786	96.4%	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
32.797	50.1%	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
32.102	98.3%	Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?	Binary
31.865	84.3%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Trabucco)	Binary
28.794	99.9%	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
28.365	80.5%	How many dollars' worth of security assistance will the U.S. direct to Ukraine's military from Congress's Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative and Foreign Military Financing programs in FY 2023?	Continuous
27.579	68.5%	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
27.476	81.9%	Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?	Binary
26.673	78.1%	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
25.723	91.3%	What will be the average inflation in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
25.609	99.5%	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
25.229	99.9%	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
25.220	100.0%	What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?	Continuous
24.551	93.4%	What will be the Shiller P/E ratio of the S&P 500 on January 1, 2025?	Continuous
24.431	66.5%	How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?	Continuous
24.313	51.4%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
24.094	75.1%	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
23.213	95.5%	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
22.088	98.0%	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
22.031	49.0%	Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026?	Binary
21.770	50.1%	What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?	Continuous
21.055	89.2%	What will be the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price NSA Index for January 2025?	Continuous
20.797	40.4%	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (European Union)	Binary
20.612	94.9%	What will the upper limit of the federal funds target range be on the following dates? (September 30, 2024)	Continuous
20.300	92.1%	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
19.584	99.8%	Will Gautam Adani be listed in the top 10 of the Forbes' annual 'World's Billionaires List' before 2026?	Binary
19.186	99.7%	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
19.141	27.8%	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?	Binary
19.117	55.3%	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
18.615	83.8%	Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?	Binary
18.451	91.3%	What will inflation in the UK be, given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership candidate contest? (2024)	Continuous
17.882	81.8%	Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?	Binary
17.631	98.3%	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
17.401	99.9%	How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023?	Continuous
17.087	96.0%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
16.916	86.1%	What will inflation in the UK be, given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership candidate contest? (2023)	Continuous
16.709	79.1%	Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
16.686	100.0%	Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025?	Binary
16.569	100.0%	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
16.355	48.1%	Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?	Binary
15.916	55.1%	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
15.700	63.2%	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
15.561	82.8%	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
15.243	80.8%	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
15.061	97.1%	What will the upper limit of the federal funds target range be on the following dates? (December 31, 2024)	Continuous
14.635	89.3%	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
14.627	79.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
13.706	97.1%	Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024?	Binary
13.641	96.4%	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
13.444	96.2%	What will the upper limit of the federal funds target range be on the following dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
13.252	84.2%	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
12.825	100.0%	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
12.820	79.2%	Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?	Binary
12.790	75.9%	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
12.640	91.9%	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
12.512	77.6%	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
12.502	30.6%	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
12.397	99.3%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
12.349	19.2%	When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US?	Continuous
11.386	99.9%	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
11.367	30.7%	BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?	Binary
11.364	53.5%	Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?	Binary
11.169	44.4%	Will global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026?	Binary
11.135	99.8%	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
10.853	60.9%	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
10.695	49.9%	Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?	Binary
10.605	51.6%	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
10.434	99.4%	Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?	Binary
10.387	99.2%	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
10.233	68.3%	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
10.040	78.8%	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
10.018	100.0%	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
9.881	97.7%	Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
9.841	99.9%	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
9.827	23.5%	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
9.657	53.2%	Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?	Binary
9.424	85.3%	Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?	Binary
9.395	99.9%	Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?	Binary
9.217	70.5%	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
9.158	99.2%	Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?	Binary
9.146	55.3%	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
9.110	76.3%	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
8.911	99.9%	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
8.791	86.1%	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
8.760	56.2%	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour))	Binary
8.646	99.7%	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
8.614	85.3%	Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?	Binary
8.526	21.8%	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
8.316	47.0%	Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?	Binary
8.246	68.0%	Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?	Binary
8.136	13.1%	What will be the annual inflation in Latvia in 2022?	Continuous
8.053	99.7%	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
8.050	55.4%	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
7.959	93.7%	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
7.940	89.3%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
7.845	63.4%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Conservative)	Binary
7.797	72.8%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2)	Binary
7.775	55.7%	What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022?	Continuous
7.705	99.9%	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
7.665	98.0%	In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
7.655	74.1%	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
7.527	68.0%	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
7.420	66.6%	Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?	Binary
7.338	97.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
7.211	99.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
7.124	82.2%	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2024)	Continuous
7.075	48.2%	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
6.814	88.6%	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
6.729	85.0%	Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?	Binary
6.539	56.1%	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories))	Binary
6.530	63.1%	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
6.478	26.7%	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
6.441	90.9%	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
6.416	89.3%	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
6.288	98.9%	Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?	Binary
6.119	14.6%	What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?	Continuous
6.011	33.9%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
5.865	69.8%	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
5.845	69.9%	When will the Republican presidential nominee next win the state of Massachusetts in a US Presidential Election? (2024)	Binary
5.570	34.1%	Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026?	Binary
5.568	65.1%	What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
5.566	53.9%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
5.542	72.8%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3)	Binary
5.420	94.2%	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
5.357	98.8%	Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025?	Binary
5.306	14.2%	What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022?	Continuous
5.179	51.6%	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
5.124	97.4%	Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
5.053	41.2%	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
5.023	89.3%	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
4.931	83.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
4.881	99.8%	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
4.815	6.0%	When will the next UK general election take place?	Continuous
4.803	99.9%	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
4.798	40.3%	Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025?	Binary
4.548	88.4%	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
4.403	88.3%	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.329	84.1%	Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?	Binary
4.320	81.2%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD)	Binary
4.045	75.9%	Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?	Binary
3.692	80.0%	Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?	Binary
3.634	98.4%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?	Binary
3.619	33.9%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
3.614	31.8%	Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025?	Binary
3.586	72.8%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1)	Binary
3.531	89.5%	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
3.507	93.6%	Will Josh Frydenberg re-enter Australian parliament before the next general election?	Binary
3.500	90.5%	Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?	Binary
3.404	81.2%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (CDU/CSU)	Binary
3.385	100.0%	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
3.369	99.8%	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
3.302	63.4%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Liberal)	Binary
3.204	95.4%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
3.163	38.2%	Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?	Binary
3.157	66.8%	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
3.056	99.9%	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
3.024	81.2%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Grüne)	Binary
2.974	10.6%	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
2.870	46.8%	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
2.813	27.8%	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
2.772	20.1%	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
2.719	99.7%	Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections?	Binary
2.704	97.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
2.525	73.2%	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
2.523	47.0%	Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?	Binary
2.523	100.0%	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
2.500	99.9%	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
2.498	97.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
2.313	30.5%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried)	Binary
2.278	79.9%	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
2.182	89.6%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
2.128	11.5%	Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?	Binary
2.094	89.6%	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
2.093	65.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
2.060	11.7%	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
2.044	97.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
2.021	27.4%	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?	Binary
1.971	99.8%	Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?	Binary
1.967	84.1%	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
1.954	96.2%	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2025)	Binary
1.953	4.0%	When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?	Continuous
1.933	67.6%	What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
1.711	58.9%	Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?	Binary
1.682	71.4%	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
1.628	48.3%	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
1.536	81.2%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (SPD)	Binary
1.495	65.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
1.490	23.4%	Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?	Binary
1.459	95.4%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
1.400	10.2%	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
1.333	63.4%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (People's)	Binary
1.269	41.2%	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
1.210	65.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
1.184	65.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
1.144	95.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
1.136	1.9%	When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month?	Continuous
1.098	63.4%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Bloc Québécois)	Binary
1.077	89.6%	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
1.070	65.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
0.972	64.2%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
0.972	97.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
0.965	93.7%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
0.926	89.3%	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
0.919	81.2%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP)	Binary
0.913	97.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
0.872	63.4%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Green)	Binary
0.804	4.0%	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?	Binary
0.756	22.5%	Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
0.719	65.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
0.681	65.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
0.673	65.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
0.635	24.6%	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
0.582	97.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
0.532	6.5%	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
0.487	64.2%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
0.478	65.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
0.397	1.0%	Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?	Binary
0.345	81.2%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Die Linke)	Binary
0.306	22.5%	Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
0.292	64.2%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
0.286	84.6%	Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
0.202	3.7%	Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza?	Binary
0.091	5.2%	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami)	Binary
0.062	3.1%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (DUP)	Continuous
0.013	5.2%	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona)	Binary
0.010	5.2%	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club)	Binary
0.001	0.1%	Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of "Jestyn's" family?	Binary
-0.002	5.2%	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club)	Binary
-0.002	5.2%	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys)	Binary
-0.131	78.8%	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
-0.232	89.1%	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
-0.379	3.1%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Greens)	Continuous
-0.413	63.4%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (New Democratic)	Binary
-0.470	8.8%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh)	Binary
-0.644	2.6%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Caroline Ellison)	Binary
-0.792	28.4%	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-0.986	3.1%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Reform)	Continuous
-1.035	2.6%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Gary Wang)	Binary
-1.225	84.4%	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2024)	Continuous
-1.481	84.1%	Will Amy Wax no longer have tenure at a top-24 US university before 2026?	Binary
-1.565	11.5%	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?	Binary
-2.002	54.9%	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
-2.143	99.0%	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-2.406	91.5%	What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-2.501	71.3%	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
-2.545	72.8%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
-2.714	16.2%	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary
-2.743	89.6%	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
-3.096	94.9%	What will the upper limit of the federal funds target range be on the following dates? (March 31, 2025)	Continuous
-4.031	57.8%	What will the upper limit of the federal funds target range be on the following dates? (December 31, 2025)	Continuous
-4.139	83.7%	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United States)	Binary
-4.236	85.7%	Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
-4.630	90.1%	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
-4.958	79.7%	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2024)	Continuous
-5.070	57.3%	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC)	Binary
-5.790	95.4%	What will the upper limit of the federal funds target range be on the following dates? (March 31, 2024)	Continuous
-6.161	89.8%	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
-6.284	57.3%	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP)	Binary
-6.805	83.5%	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-6.991	44.3%	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
-7.718	88.5%	What will the upper limit of the federal funds target range be on the following dates? (June 30, 2025)	Continuous
-7.976	99.9%	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
-8.197	22.2%	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-8.287	64.0%	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
-8.985	94.5%	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
-9.723	83.7%	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United Kingdom)	Binary
-9.796	90.0%	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
-10.962	78.2%	What will be the average inflation in Turkey from 2022 to 2024 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-11.236	65.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-11.812	99.6%	Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?	Binary
-12.064	64.4%	What will the upper limit of the federal funds target range be on the following dates? (September 30, 2025)	Continuous
-12.717	80.0%	How many UN member states will formally recognize Taiwan at the end of 2025?	Continuous
-15.678	64.8%	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-18.097	56.6%	Will Apple adopt RCS technology for iPhones before 2026?	Binary
-18.365	92.5%	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
-19.298	80.5%	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
-20.738	89.4%	When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
-21.315	80.9%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-24.211	44.8%	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-26.101	79.7%	In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?	Continuous
-29.272	99.9%	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
-33.047	99.9%	Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?	Binary
-47.814	84.0%	Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?	Binary