aquaterrific

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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26.94		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
124.232	98.6%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
105.718	99.4%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
104.993	99.8%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
100.236	99.2%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
100.064	99.5%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
96.341	99.8%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
93.844	96.3%	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
93.301	61.3%	What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025?	Continuous
92.992	98.1%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
91.522	97.1%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
90.145	99.8%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
85.789	98.9%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
84.213	99.8%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
81.671	99.0%	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
77.803	99.5%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
72.861	99.7%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
72.618	98.7%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
71.262	92.1%	Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?	Binary
71.236	98.1%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
69.393	99.7%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
67.795	98.9%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
67.344	99.8%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
66.733	97.3%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
66.574	96.6%	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
61.854	70.2%	How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?	Multiple Choice
54.936	89.3%	What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
52.562	99.7%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
52.287	98.7%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
51.796	91.7%	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
50.948	99.7%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
50.281	99.6%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
48.144	98.9%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
46.601	94.9%	Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
38.937	98.7%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
38.912	99.6%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
38.379	60.6%	What will be the total domestic box office in the US & Canada during 2025?	Continuous
37.634	98.6%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
37.329	90.9%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
36.207	81.6%	Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?	Binary
34.301	92.0%	Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
33.703	97.2%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
33.678	92.9%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
33.509	99.4%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
33.478	96.6%	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
31.832	87.8%	Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?	Multiple Choice
30.567	98.1%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
30.547	99.7%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
30.290	79.8%	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
29.606	96.1%	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
28.633	99.4%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
28.373	79.3%	Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?	Binary
28.138	91.2%	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
28.038	99.7%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
27.450	97.3%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
27.441	96.3%	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
25.660	99.7%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
25.607	73.7%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
25.477	91.1%	Which team will win the 2025 League of Legends World Championship?	Multiple Choice
25.465	99.8%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
24.629	89.6%	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Women)	Continuous
23.637	43.9%	What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025?	Multiple Choice
23.476	80.8%	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
23.207	75.0%	Who will win the Texas 18th district special election?	Multiple Choice
22.938	71.3%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
22.569	73.7%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
21.377	86.0%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
21.035	32.2%	[Short fuse] Who will win the 2025 NBA Cup?	Multiple Choice
20.640	71.0%	How many days of snow will New York City see between December 11, 2025 and January 10, 2026?	Multiple Choice
20.569	91.8%	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
20.450	94.9%	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
19.940	91.6%	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
19.730	65.8%	Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?	Binary
19.653	94.4%	Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?	Binary
19.304	99.4%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
18.655	89.4%	When will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed?	Continuous
18.241	89.6%	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Men)	Continuous
17.733	71.3%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
17.546	72.9%	What will be the global year-over-year change in seated diners reported by OpenTable for the week ending January 1, 2026?	Continuous
17.528	97.6%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
17.470	82.2%	How many runs will be scored in the 2025 World Series?	Continuous
17.412	96.3%	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
17.316	96.6%	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
17.162	71.1%	Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?	Binary
16.760	65.3%	What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX?	Continuous
16.752	84.9%	Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?	Binary
16.464	76.7%	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
16.386	63.6%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
16.353	99.6%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
16.253	92.8%	Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?	Binary
16.168	80.2%	Will China and India ratify a bilateral border treaty before the end of 2025?	Binary
15.705	86.0%	How many Volcanoes will be erupting at the end of 2025?	Continuous
15.684	60.6%	What will the total number of tokens launched on the site pump.fun be, as of March 31, 2025?	Continuous
15.390	87.9%	What will be the fastest average solving time of the 3x3x3 Rubik's Cube during November 2025?	Continuous
14.659	71.0%	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
14.289	81.2%	Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?	Binary
14.230	85.2%	How many executive orders will Donald Trump sign in February and March 2025?	Continuous
14.204	67.1%	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
14.196	87.4%	Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025?	Binary
13.688	91.8%	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
13.572	47.0%	Which country will host the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP 31) in 2026?	Multiple Choice
13.519	96.6%	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
13.316	42.6%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
13.027	30.0%	What will be the highest price of Bitcoin in 2025?	Continuous
12.069	18.0%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
12.064	58.2%	What will be the longest field goal of the 2025 NFL season?	Continuous
12.018	87.8%	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
11.921	55.0%	Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before November 1, 2025?	Binary
11.850	72.1%	Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
11.492	90.5%	Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?	Binary
11.094	99.7%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
10.982	16.5%	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
10.451	37.7%	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
10.310	54.8%	What will be the market price of the most expensive Pokémon card from the Mega Evolution expansion on November 26th?	Continuous
9.272	71.3%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
8.903	34.6%	Will there be another deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more fatalities, before 2026?	Binary
8.602	28.9%	Will Nicholas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before January 1, 2026?	Binary
8.556	16.2%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
6.902	67.6%	How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?	Continuous
6.846	34.1%	What will be the the global surface air temperature on April 1, 2025?	Continuous
6.185	37.1%	When will Adelita Grijalva be sworn in?	Continuous
6.157	11.4%	How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?	Continuous
5.906	66.7%	Which race will the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Champion be known after?	Multiple Choice
5.889	92.0%	Will the world's five largest companies at the end of 2025 be in the tech sector?	Binary
5.516	46.1%	Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?	Binary
5.461	37.1%	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
5.431	31.7%	Will Blue Origin's "Never Tell Me The Odds" launch before 2026 and successfully land?	Binary
5.077	74.9%	Who will win Big Brother 27 (US)?	Multiple Choice
5.031	11.7%	Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?	Binary
4.543	71.3%	Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?	Binary
4.211	55.6%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
4.191	77.6%	Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?	Multiple Choice
3.819	42.2%	Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?	Binary
3.529	73.7%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
3.447	9.9%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
3.401	21.3%	How many cases will be confirmed in the Texas measles outbreak before April 7, 2025?	Continuous
3.305	94.4%	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
2.903	75.2%	What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
2.878	10.0%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
2.398	29.2%	Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?	Binary
2.180	62.3%	How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?	Multiple Choice
1.853	16.5%	Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?	Binary
1.606	2.6%	What will be the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility estimate of CPI inflation for 2025 as of March 2025?	Multiple Choice
1.538	99.6%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
1.258	26.2%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
1.108	94.6%	What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories?	Continuous
0.728	46.1%	Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?	Binary
0.567	3.6%	Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?	Binary
0.440	53.3%	What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?	Continuous
0.228	0.8%	Will any top US official visit Greenland in 2025?	Binary
-0.433	98.2%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
-0.957	1.7%	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
-1.607	96.5%	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
-1.613	8.3%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
-1.716	5.5%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
-1.779	29.3%	What will happen next with respect to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act's $7,500 tax credit for US individuals who purchase an EV (30D)?	Multiple Choice
-4.141	99.1%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
-4.212	71.3%	What will be the percentage of zero-emission cars among Norwegian new car registrations during November 2025?	Continuous
-4.801	73.7%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
-4.847	93.5%	Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-7.809	99.7%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
-8.769	64.0%	What color will the 2026 Pantone Color of the Year be?	Multiple Choice
-13.831	99.0%	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
-15.164	70.5%	What will be the percentage increase for the minimum wage in Colombia for 2026?	Continuous
-26.971	75.9%	Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?	Binary
-33.238	99.0%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
-40.037	80.2%	How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025?	Continuous
-43.123	96.3%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
-46.331	63.1%	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
-53.589	98.0%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-73.038	99.4%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
-127.710	94.0%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary
-209.442	98.0%	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Dutch general election?	Multiple Choice
-275.600	98.7%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice