aquaterrific

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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34.02		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
124.232	98.6%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
105.718	99.4%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
104.993	99.8%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
100.236	99.2%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
100.064	99.5%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
96.341	99.8%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
93.301	61.3%	What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025?	Continuous
92.992	98.1%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
91.522	97.1%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
90.145	99.8%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
85.789	98.9%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
84.213	99.8%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
81.671	99.0%	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
77.803	99.5%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
72.861	99.7%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
72.618	98.7%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
71.236	98.1%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
69.393	99.7%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
67.795	98.9%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
67.344	99.8%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
66.733	97.3%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
61.854	70.2%	How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?	Multiple Choice
54.936	89.3%	What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
52.562	99.7%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
52.287	98.7%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
51.796	91.7%	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
50.948	99.7%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
50.281	99.6%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
48.144	98.9%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
38.937	98.7%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
38.912	99.6%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
37.634	98.6%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
37.329	90.9%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
33.703	97.2%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
33.678	92.9%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
33.509	99.4%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
30.567	98.1%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
30.547	99.7%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
30.290	79.8%	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
28.633	99.4%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
28.038	99.7%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
27.450	97.3%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
25.660	99.7%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
25.607	73.7%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
25.465	99.8%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
23.637	43.9%	What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025?	Multiple Choice
22.938	71.3%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
22.569	73.7%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
21.377	86.0%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
19.940	91.6%	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
19.304	99.4%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
17.733	71.3%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
17.528	97.6%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
16.760	65.3%	What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX?	Continuous
16.386	63.6%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
16.353	99.6%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
15.684	60.6%	What will the total number of tokens launched on the site pump.fun be, as of March 31, 2025?	Continuous
14.659	71.0%	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
14.230	85.2%	How many executive orders will Donald Trump sign in February and March 2025?	Continuous
14.204	67.1%	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
14.196	87.4%	Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025?	Binary
12.069	18.0%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
11.094	99.7%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
10.982	16.5%	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
10.451	37.7%	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
9.272	71.3%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
8.556	16.2%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
6.846	34.1%	What will be the the global surface air temperature on April 1, 2025?	Continuous
6.157	11.4%	How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?	Continuous
5.516	46.1%	Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?	Binary
5.461	37.1%	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
5.031	11.7%	Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?	Binary
4.211	55.6%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
4.191	77.6%	Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?	Multiple Choice
3.529	73.7%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
3.447	9.9%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
3.401	21.3%	How many cases will be confirmed in the Texas measles outbreak before April 7, 2025?	Continuous
2.903	75.2%	What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
2.878	10.0%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
2.398	29.2%	Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?	Binary
1.606	2.6%	What will be the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility estimate of CPI inflation for 2025 as of March 2025?	Multiple Choice
1.538	99.6%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
1.258	26.2%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
1.108	94.6%	What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories?	Continuous
0.728	46.1%	Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?	Binary
0.228	0.8%	Will any top US official visit Greenland in 2025?	Binary
-0.433	98.2%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
-1.613	8.3%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
-1.716	5.5%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
-4.141	99.1%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
-4.801	73.7%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
-7.809	99.7%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
-33.238	99.0%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
-40.037	80.2%	How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025?	Continuous
-43.123	96.3%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
-46.331	63.1%	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
-53.589	98.0%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-73.038	99.4%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
-127.710	94.0%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary
-275.600	98.7%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice