evergreenemily

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2023-24

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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6.188		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
170.055	87.3%	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump)	Continuous
68.574	90.1%	Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023?	Binary
67.569	99.4%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
52.749	99.4%	What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2024)	Continuous
51.639	99.5%	What will be the maximum percent of Gallup Coronavirus Pandemic polls respondents who say the pandemic is getting a lot worse in 2023 and 2024?	Continuous
49.434	100.0%	Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India?	Binary
47.818	77.0%	When will US government 10-year bond yields next exceed 2-year bond yields?	Continuous
43.479	84.4%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel)	Binary
40.536	97.6%	Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?	Binary
40.393	85.0%	Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?	Binary
35.267	99.8%	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
32.396	98.6%	Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?	Binary
31.515	84.6%	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
30.635	99.2%	When will Israel lift the Gaza Strip total blockade on four essential goods?	Continuous
29.877	75.1%	Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?	Binary
28.969	38.4%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Reform UK)	Continuous
28.040	96.7%	Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
28.000	70.6%	Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?	Binary
25.078	98.7%	What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
24.715	99.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan)	Binary
24.082	93.0%	How many Palestinian fatalities in the West Bank will be caused by Israeli forces before July 1, 2024?	Continuous
23.867	84.4%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested)	Binary
23.276	27.2%	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Nikki Haley)	Continuous
22.816	99.8%	Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?	Binary
21.560	99.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada)	Binary
21.065	99.3%	Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election?	Binary
20.614	67.5%	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
20.241	95.0%	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?	Binary
19.707	37.6%	How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"?	Continuous
19.619	98.3%	Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024?	Binary
17.946	96.9%	Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday?	Multiple Choice
17.344	63.4%	When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users?	Continuous
16.468	40.6%	Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024?	Binary
16.228	99.4%	What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024?	Continuous
16.179	99.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota)	Binary
15.238	99.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
14.901	99.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
14.892	79.0%	Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump)	Binary
14.768	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
14.482	69.4%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
13.795	94.3%	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?	Binary
13.331	99.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire)	Binary
13.118	99.0%	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
12.966	100.0%	If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?	Binary
12.421	99.3%	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
12.395	99.3%	Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
11.595	100.0%	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
11.147	99.4%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
10.888	96.4%	Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024?	Binary
9.932	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
9.892	65.2%	Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?	Binary
9.814	99.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida)	Binary
9.730	97.2%	Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election?	Binary
9.237	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott)	Binary
8.482	84.4%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas)	Binary
8.305	99.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio)	Binary
8.131	99.9%	Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?	Binary
8.067	98.0%	5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
7.886	99.4%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
7.770	99.4%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
7.689	100.0%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
7.667	79.4%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia)	Binary
7.566	56.5%	What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024?	Continuous
7.511	84.4%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power)	Binary
7.399	99.7%	Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?	Binary
7.117	92.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa)	Binary
6.909	49.2%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
6.865	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Binary
6.529	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake)	Binary
6.506	99.8%	Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?	Binary
6.128	67.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide))	Binary
6.076	45.9%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
6.069	99.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
6.023	78.0%	Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?	Binary
5.258	84.4%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government)	Binary
5.143	99.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas)	Binary
5.129	99.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
5.123	79.4%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico)	Binary
4.676	41.4%	Will the Republican Party retain California's 20th District in the 2024 special election?	Binary
4.669	92.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska)	Binary
4.669	99.2%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D))	Binary
4.342	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem)	Binary
4.292	96.7%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
4.270	6.7%	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Ron DeSantis)	Continuous
4.152	99.2%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D))	Binary
4.107	99.5%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson)	Binary
3.863	99.4%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
3.826	92.9%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
3.817	99.2%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Andy Kim (D))	Binary
3.747	67.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado)	Binary
3.682	99.7%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
3.676	99.2%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D))	Binary
3.654	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik)	Binary
3.647	99.4%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
3.613	97.5%	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?	Binary
3.387	99.2%	Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont?	Binary
3.375	4.1%	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Continuous
3.355	99.2%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D))	Binary
3.355	65.3%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic)	Binary
3.295	45.9%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Conservative and Unionist Party)	Continuous
3.101	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence)	Binary
3.001	92.0%	Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?	Binary
2.951	65.3%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI)	Binary
2.923	99.4%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
2.906	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)	Binary
2.847	93.3%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
2.765	21.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD))	Binary
2.691	99.1%	Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2024)	Binary
2.587	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
2.562	99.2%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant)	Binary
2.546	65.3%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
2.402	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
2.392	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds)	Binary
2.375	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie)	Binary
2.353	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
2.128	49.2%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio)	Binary
2.086	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
1.985	25.0%	Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025?	Binary
1.978	21.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD))	Binary
1.857	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst)	Binary
1.827	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
1.640	99.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
1.619	21.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD))	Binary
1.441	1.8%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No)	Binary
1.418	96.1%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
1.386	72.5%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
1.351	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds)	Binary
1.279	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
1.275	77.5%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
1.271	45.4%	Will Threads support ActivityPub before 2025?	Binary
1.235	33.0%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey)	Binary
1.211	99.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona)	Binary
1.203	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin)	Binary
1.104	97.7%	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?	Binary
1.100	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump)	Binary
1.078	84.4%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah)	Binary
1.043	96.9%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
0.991	98.9%	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024)	Binary
0.981	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
0.963	99.2%	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
0.924	22.3%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York)	Binary
0.879	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump)	Binary
0.822	18.4%	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
0.751	65.2%	Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024?	Binary
0.747	72.5%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
0.661	72.5%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
0.642	72.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
0.622	50.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson)	Binary
0.609	96.2%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
0.563	18.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
0.531	93.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
0.518	25.3%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
0.486	83.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
0.485	4.4%	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Asa Hutchinson)	Continuous
0.420	83.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder)	Binary
0.417	99.2%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D))	Binary
0.409	50.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt)	Binary
0.379	93.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez)	Binary
0.370	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace)	Binary
0.362	95.2%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd)	Binary
0.321	1.4%	Hunter Biden Indicted by Nov 5, 2024? (Yes) → Joe Biden Impeached by House?	Binary
0.270	1.8%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes)	Binary
0.192	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
0.171	1.8%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes)	Binary
0.150	22.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
-0.049	97.9%	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
-0.448	1.8%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No)	Binary
-0.601	1.7%	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Chris Christie)	Continuous
-0.731	99.2%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D))	Binary
-0.829	78.7%	Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?	Binary
-1.746	99.8%	Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?	Binary
-2.483	45.9%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Green Party of England and Wales)	Continuous
-3.143	99.2%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D))	Binary
-3.381	99.5%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban)	Binary
-4.156	95.2%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D))	Binary
-5.077	45.9%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrats)	Continuous
-5.499	99.5%	Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?	Binary
-6.078	100.0%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
-6.136	99.4%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
-6.945	99.3%	In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?	Binary
-8.859	99.7%	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-9.911	25.8%	Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025?	Binary
-13.920	98.7%	What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2023)	Continuous
-14.001	84.5%	Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent?	Binary
-16.909	45.9%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Labour Party)	Continuous
-17.944	64.9%	Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election?	Binary
-18.639	99.4%	When will the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Interagency Technical Working Group on Race and Ethnicity Standards complete revisions to Statistical Policy Directive No. 15 (SPD 15)?	Continuous
-20.015	99.5%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney)	Binary
-29.851	98.4%	Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?	Binary
-32.843	93.7%	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
-40.385	62.4%	What percentage of the popular vote will the African National Congress get in the 2024 South African general election?	Continuous
-52.306	99.5%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin)	Binary
-67.413	95.1%	What will be the water level of Lake Mead (in feet) at the end of July of the following years? (2024)	Continuous
-72.748	98.3%	Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-123.705	99.2%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D))	Binary
-232.835	99.4%	How many zero emission light vehicles will be available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) in the United States for the following model years? (2024)	Continuous